GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
Communication Services / Internet Content & Information / Mountain View, CA
AnalystScope signal
Sell
Scheduled quote
$352
Base fair value
$196
Bear / base / bull
$165 / $196 / $228
Upside / downside
-44.2 downside
Confidence
High
Research updated Mar 16, 2026
Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.
Informational research only. Not personalized investment advice.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Investment summary
Current view and thesis
Alphabet combines durable search economics with improving cloud profitability and expanding AI monetization, leaving the shares attractive relative to its cash generation.
Fair value $196 vs. current $352 (-44.2 downside). Current base fair value is $196 versus $352, implying -44.2 downside.
Key drivers
Search remains a high-quality cash engine with attractive incremental economics.
Cloud profitability is improving and increasingly matters to the sum-of-parts view.
The balance sheet supports ongoing AI investment without stressing capital allocation.
Key risks
Search disruption or weaker ad demand could pressure the core earnings base.
Regulatory action remains an overhang on both valuation and business flexibility.
AI monetization may take longer to offset higher infrastructure and content costs.
What would change the view
Faster cloud margin improvement would support a more constructive valuation view.
Evidence of sustained search share erosion would weaken our stance materially.
A clearer path to monetizing AI within Search would improve upside confidence.
Valuation
Price, range, and method support
Base case $196 / -44.2 downside / high confidence
Price vs fair value
-44.3%
Model-implied return
Scheduled quote
$352
Fair value
$196
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $196
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$202 | 50%
NTM P/E Multiple
$193 | 30%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$188 | 20%
| Case / method | Value | Weight / support |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $202 | 50% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $193 | 30% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $188 | 20% |
| Bear case | $165 | Mixed |
| Base case | $196 | Supportive |
| Bull case | $228 | Mixed |
Fundamental analysis
Reported evidence and normalized model base
Normalized annual basis: FY2025
Normalized figures are AnalystScope's annual valuation model base.
| Normalized metric | Latest value | Growth / margin context |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $364.8B | +13.0% YoY |
| Operating income | $112.4B | 30.8% margin |
| Net income | $98.9B | EPS proxy $8.29 |
| Free cash flow | $78.8B | 21.6% margin |
| EBITDA | $128.1B | 35.1% margin |
| Net cash / (debt) | $96.4B | +26.4% of revenue |
| Metric | Reported | AnalystScope normalized | Basis note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $402.8B | $364.8B | Model revenue smooths ad-cycle volatility and cloud timing while preserving the medium-term trend. |
| Operating Margin | 32.0% | 30.8% | Margin input normalizes AI infrastructure ramp costs and quarter-to-quarter traffic-acquisition noise. |
| FCF (TTM) | $73.3B | $78.8B | FCF input cleans up capex timing and other temporary cash-flow distortions. |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($41.4B) | $96.4B | Balance-sheet treatment keeps a conservative net-cash view despite the large liquidity base. |
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+13.0% YoY
$364.8B
Op. margin
+1.8% pts
30.8%
FCF margin
+0.2% pts
21.6%
Revenue + margin trend
Annual normalized model-base history.
Revenue
Operating margin
AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $282.8B | $322.8B | $364.8B |
| Gross Profit | $159.5B | $185.0B | $211.9B |
| Operating Income | $76.9B | $93.6B | $112.4B |
| EBITDA | $88.5B | $107.2B | $128.1B |
| Net Income | $66.5B | $82.6B | $98.9B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $118.2B | $132.6B | $146.0B |
| Total Debt | $27.4B | $33.5B | $49.6B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $90.8B | $99.1B | $96.4B |
| Total Assets | $402.0B | $439.0B | $478.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $120.3B | $136.6B | $153.0B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $281.7B | $302.4B | $325.0B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $82.0B | $95.5B | $108.7B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $11.6B | $13.6B | $15.7B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($23.8B) | ($26.5B) | ($29.9B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $58.2B | $69.0B | $78.8B |
Model assumptions
Base-case inputs and sensitivity
Published AnalystScope assumptions; private edits do not change this base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
10.5%
±1.0% => ±$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Cloud profitability is improving and increasingly matters to the sum-of-parts view.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 10.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Alphabet Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.5%
±0.5% => ∓$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Balance sheet remains underlevered
Operating Margin (Year 5)
32.0%
±100 bps => ±$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (30.8%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes AI infrastructure ramp costs and quarter-to-quarter traffic-acquisition noise.
Sensitivity drivers
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
10.5%
±1.0% => ±$11/sh
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$8/sh
WACC
8.5%
±0.5% => ∓$10/sh
Operating Margin (Year 5)
32.0%
±100 bps => ±$6/sh
Confidence
High
Method outputs are tightly grouped at +7.1% dispersion.
Why the model view could be wrong
Search disruption or weaker ad demand could pressure the core earnings base.
Regulatory action remains an overhang on both valuation and business flexibility.
AI monetization may take longer to offset higher infrastructure and content costs.
Private analysis
Test your own assumptions in Scenario Builder
Private scenarios remain separate from AnalystScope's published base case.
Private workspace
Scenario Builder
Private scenario sandbox
This is a private modelling layer, not the public AnalystScope base case or printable snapshot. It keeps the public base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates your scenario fair-value estimate immediately.
Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for GOOGL. Base-case rationale remains in the public assumptions section above. Your scenario output reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the AnalystScope framework.
Editable assumptions
Adjust your scenario inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the public AnalystScope base case.
This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.
Matches the published AnalystScope base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Public AnalystScope base case: 10.5% | ±1.0% => ±$11/sh
Allowed range: 4.5% to 16.5%
Terminal Growth
Public AnalystScope base case: 3.0% | ±0.5% => ±$8/sh
Allowed range: 1.5% to 4.5%
WACC
Public AnalystScope base case: 8.5% | ±0.5% => ∓$10/sh
Allowed range: 6.5% to 10.5%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Public AnalystScope base case: 32.0% | ±100 bps => ±$6/sh
Allowed range: 24.0% to 40.0%
Saved private scenarios
Save up to 5 named scenarios for GOOGL. These are your scenarios: they never overwrite the public AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.
Checking private workspace session...
Private scenario note
Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.
0 / 280
Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.
No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.
Published base case
Fair value
$196
Upside / Downside
-44.2 downside
Model signal
Sell
Published base-case output
Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.
Fair value
$196
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
-44.2 downside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Sell
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Method movement inside the scenario
This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.
Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.
Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.
| Method | Published base | Edited scenario | Delta | How it moved / main drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF (Base) DCF-style | 50% weight | $202 | $202 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style | 30% weight | $193 | $193 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple | 20% weight | $188 | $188 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Weighted fair value Published framework result | Published framework result | $196 | $197 | +$1/sh | Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way. |
Published base case vs private scenarios
Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.
Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.
Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR (5Y) | Terminal Growth | WACC | Op. Margin (Y5) | Fair Value | Upside / Downside | Model Signal | Delta vs Base | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AnalystScope base case PublishedOfficial AnalystScope anchor row. | 10.5% | 3.0% | 8.5% | 32.0% | $196 | -44.2 downside | Sell | Published anchor |
Supporting research
Quality, normalization, and monitoring evidence
Annual model base: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateSearch and cloud still support healthy growth, with AI as an additional lever.
Profitability
StrongCore search economics and improving cloud margins support strong returns.
Balance sheet
StrongLarge net cash gives Alphabet ample flexibility during the AI build-out.
Valuation
StrongShares still look reasonable relative to cash generation and balance-sheet strength.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution remains strong, though regulatory and search-disruption risk temper the view.
Current source status
Quote: Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.
Reported fundamentals: Fundamentals refreshed 21 Jul 2026, 00:39 UTC. Fresh through 21 Jul 2026, 12:39 UTC.
Latest filing: 4 filed Jul 17, 2026 | Reporting period Jul 15, 2026. Filing refreshed Jul 21, 2026, 12:39 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 21, 2026, 12:39 PM UTC.
Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+13.0%
Gross margin
58.1%
Operating margin
30.8%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+1.8 pts
EBITDA margin
35.1%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+1.9 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+20.1%
Net margin
27.1%
FCF margin
21.6%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+0.2 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+14.2%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$146.0B
Total debt
$49.6B
Net cash / (debt)
Net cash $96.4B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net cash 26.4% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (+0.9 pts)
32.0%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
27.3 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.1x)
1.1x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.8x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.8x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (-0.0 pts)
8.2%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (-0.2 pts)
27.5%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.9x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (-1.0x)
2.9x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
89.1%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.8x
Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.
Adjustment focus
Large analyst adjustmentBalance sheet | Net Cash / (Debt) | +$137.8B / +34% of revenue
Revenue momentum
Stable+13.0% latest 1Y growth
vs +14.1% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Improving30.8% latest margin
+182 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Stable21.6% latest FCF margin
+23 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
WeakeningNet cash 26.4% of revenue
vs Net cash 30.7% of revenue prior FY
How to read this
Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.
This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.
Why the model base differs
For Alphabet, normalization reduces quarter-specific ad and investment noise so the thesis leans more on medium-term cash generation and cloud margin progress.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.
| Metric | Model base | Live reported | Variance vs reported | Adjustment size | Why lower / higher? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Cash / (Debt) | $96.4B FY2025 model base | ($41.4B) Live reported balance sheet | +$137.8B / +34% of revenue | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is less conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure because the latest reported balance does not appear fully representative. It keeps a conservative net-cash view despite the large liquidity base. |
Revenue (TTM) | $364.8B FY2025 model base | $402.8B Live reported TTM | -$38.0B / -9% | Close to reported | Model base is lower than live reported because the thesis does not carry the current revenue run-rate straight into the durable operating base. It smooths ad-cycle volatility and cloud timing while preserving the medium-term trend. |
FCF (TTM) | $78.8B FY2025 model base | $73.3B Live reported TTM | +$5.5B / +8% | Close to reported | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest cash-flow drag is fully durable. It cleans up capex timing and other temporary cash-flow distortions. |
Operating Margin | 30.8% FY2025 model base | 32.0% Live reported margin | -1.2 pts | Close to reported | Model base is lower than live reported because current margin strength is not being treated as a permanent through-cycle outcome. It normalizes AI infrastructure ramp costs and quarter-to-quarter traffic-acquisition noise. |
Near-term catalysts
Search and cloud update cadence remains the most immediate input for valuation revisions.
AI product monetization disclosures could materially change the market's earnings bridge.
Regulatory developments can quickly affect sentiment even without changing near-term fundamentals.
What we are watching
Whether cloud margin gains remain durable as investment intensity stays elevated.
How AI features influence search behavior, monetization, and incremental cost structure.
Any change in regulatory risk that could alter the market's discount rate on the business.
| Date | Event | Published rating | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | Upgraded | Buy | Upgraded to Buy as cloud margin progress and AI monetization improved the fair value range. |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Reiterated | Hold | Stayed at Hold while cloud profitability improved but regulatory risk remained an overhang. |
| Dec 5, 2025 | New | Hold | Entered coverage with a Hold view pending clearer AI monetization evidence. |