GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
Alphabet combines durable search economics with improving cloud profitability and expanding AI monetization, leaving the shares attractive relative to its cash generation.
Live company workspace
This page is the current view. It combines the latest price context, filing status, reported fundamentals, refreshed normalized statements, and the current model output. Published actions and ratings stay here as reference, while the report page preserves the point-in-time note.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence: Medium
Implied return: -34.5 downside
Fair value $194 vs. current $296 (-34.5 downside).
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Ticker
GOOGL
Model signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Fair value
$194
Upside / Downside
-34.5 downside
Jump to section
Live investment view
Base case stance: Sell with medium confidence as shares trade at $296 versus $194 fair value, implying -34.5 downside. This workspace updates with the latest live inputs, while the published report remains a point-in-time note.
Current model signal
Sell
Latest analyst action
Upgraded
Published Mar 16, 2026
Latest published rating
Buy
Published Mar 16, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Current price data
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 4:03 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC.
Latest filing / report
4 filed Apr 3, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 1, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 3, 2026, 11:28 PM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC.
Open filing sourceReported fundamentals
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Current price
$296
Fair value
$194
Upside / Downside
-34.5 downside
Top drivers
Search remains a high-quality cash engine with attractive incremental economics.
Cloud profitability is improving and increasingly matters to the sum-of-parts view.
Top risks
Search disruption or weaker ad demand could pressure the core earnings base.
Regulatory action remains an overhang on both valuation and business flexibility.
Sector / Industry
Communication Services
Internet Content & Information
Headquarters
Mountain View, CA
Market Cap
$2.1T
Current / Fair Value
$296 / $194
Upside / Downside
-34.5 downside
Data status
Last updated: Mar 20, 2026
Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.
Coverage is currently limited to ten companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, and NFLX.
Normalized financial summary
Curated normalized annual basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Revenue (Latest FY)
FY2025 | +15.1% vs prior FY
$402.8B
Operating Margin
-8 bps vs prior FY
32.0%
FCF (Latest FY)
18.2% margin | FY2025
$73.3B
Net Cash / (Debt)
Balance sheet remains underlevered
$78.3B
Key ratios
EV / NTM EBITDA
Sector 13.7x
16.9x
P / NTM EPS
Sector 21.5x
23.8x
ROIC
Sector 12.8%
24.6%
Rule of 40
Healthy
43%
Base-case assumptions
These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
10.5%
±1.0% => ±$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest normalized FY revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Cloud profitability is improving and increasingly matters to the sum-of-parts view.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 10.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Alphabet Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.5%
±0.5% => ∓$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Balance sheet remains underlevered
Operating Margin (Year 5)
32.0%
±100 bps => ±$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's normalized operating margin (32.0%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes AI infrastructure ramp costs and quarter-to-quarter traffic-acquisition noise.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Scenario workbench
Analyst workbench
This is a local edited scenario, not the published AnalystScope base case or report view. It keeps the published base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates the fair-value estimate immediately.
Base-case rationale remains in the assumptions section above. This first slice uses the published sensitivities to estimate how the edited scenario changes fair value while the cross-check methods remain the published reference point.
Editable assumptions
Adjust the inputs within a reasonable range. Edits stay local to this browser session.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Published base case: 10.5% | ±1.0% => ±$11/sh
Range: 4.5% to 16.5%
Terminal Growth
Published base case: 3.0% | ±0.5% => ±$8/sh
Range: 1.5% to 4.5%
WACC
Published base case: 8.5% | ±0.5% => ∓$10/sh
Range: 6.5% to 10.5%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Published base case: 32.0% | ±100 bps => ±$6/sh
Range: 24.0% to 40.0%
Published base case
Fair value
$194
Upside / Downside
-34.5 downside
Model signal
Sell
Edited scenario
Fair value
$194
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
-34.4 downside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Sell
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Normalized financial statements
Curated normalized annual statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $307.4B | $350.0B | $402.8B |
| Gross Profit | $173.4B | $200.6B | $234.0B |
| Operating Income | $84.2B | $112.3B | $128.9B |
| EBITDA | $96.8B | $127.0B | $146.2B |
| Net Income | $73.8B | $100.1B | $132.1B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $110.9B | $95.7B | $126.8B |
| Total Debt | $12.9B | $11.9B | $48.5B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $98.0B | $83.8B | $78.3B |
| Total Assets | $402.4B | $450.3B | $595.3B |
| Total Liabilities | $119.0B | $125.2B | $180.0B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $283.4B | $325.1B | $415.3B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $101.7B | $125.3B | $164.7B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $12.6B | $14.7B | $17.3B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($32.3B) | ($52.5B) | ($91.4B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $69.4B | $72.8B | $73.3B |
Model inputs vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the live reported fundamentals versus the latest normalized annual inputs still used in the current public analysis model.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Normalization impact on the thesis
For Alphabet, normalization reduces quarter-specific ad and investment noise so the thesis leans more on medium-term cash generation and cloud margin progress.
Statement basis diagnostics
Latest normalized basis FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.
Income statement
Revenue
FY2025 $402.8B vs reported TTM $402.8B (-0.0%)
Operating margin
FY2025 32.0% vs reported 32.0% (-0.0 pts)
Cash flow
Free cash flow
FY2025 $73.3B vs reported TTM $73.3B (+0.0%)
FCF margin
FY2025 18.2% vs reported 18.2% (+0.0 pts)
Balance sheet
Net cash / (debt)
FY2025 Net cash $78.3B vs reported Net debt $17.8B
| Metric | Reported | Status | Model input | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $402.8B | Live reported | $402.8B +15.1% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths ad-cycle volatility and cloud timing while preserving the medium-term trend. | Model / normalized |
| Operating Margin | 32.0% | Live reported | 32.0% -8 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes AI infrastructure ramp costs and quarter-to-quarter traffic-acquisition noise. | Model / normalized |
| FCF (TTM) | $73.3B | Live reported | $73.3B 18.2% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up capex timing and other temporary cash-flow distortions. | Model / normalized |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($17.8B) | Live reported | $78.3B Balance sheet remains underlevered Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps a conservative net-cash view despite the large liquidity base. | Model / normalized |
Normalization review
For Alphabet, normalization reduces quarter-specific ad and investment noise so the thesis leans more on medium-term cash generation and cloud margin progress.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable drift first.
| Metric | Latest normalized basis | Latest live reported | Delta / variance | Materiality | Normalization rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Cash / (Debt) | $78.3B FY2025 normalized | ($17.8B) Live reported balance sheet | +$96.1B / +23.9% of revenue | High drift | Balance-sheet treatment keeps a conservative net-cash view despite the large liquidity base. |
Operating Margin | 32.0% FY2025 normalized | 32.0% Live reported margin | +0.0 pts | In band | Margin input normalizes AI infrastructure ramp costs and quarter-to-quarter traffic-acquisition noise. |
Revenue (TTM) | $402.8B FY2025 normalized | $402.8B Live reported TTM | +$0.0 / +0.0% | In band | Model revenue smooths ad-cycle volatility and cloud timing while preserving the medium-term trend. |
FCF (TTM) | $73.3B FY2025 normalized | $73.3B Live reported TTM | +$0.0 / +0.0% | In band | FCF input cleans up capex timing and other temporary cash-flow distortions. |
Ratios + trends
Normalized annual income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+15.1%
Gross margin
58.1%
Operating margin
32.0%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
-0.1 pts
EBITDA margin
36.3%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+0.0 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+14.8%
Net margin
32.8%
FCF margin
18.2%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
-2.6 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+0.7%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$126.8B
Total debt
$48.5B
Net cash / (debt)
Net cash $78.3B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net cash 19.4% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (+2.4 pts)
30.2%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
26.1 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.2x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
1.1x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.2x)
0.6x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+7.7 pts)
22.7%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (+13.6 pts)
55.5%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+1.7x)
5.3x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (-5.4x)
2.6x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
103.1%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (-0.1x)
0.7x
Financial diagnostics
Compact normalized-basis diagnostics for analyst triage.
Drift focus
High driftBalance sheet | Net Cash / (Debt) | +$96.1B / +23.9% of revenue
Revenue momentum
Stable+15.1% latest 1Y growth
vs +13.9% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Stable32.0% latest margin
-8 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Weakening18.2% latest FCF margin
-260 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
WeakeningNet cash 19.4% of revenue
vs Net cash 23.9% of revenue prior FY
Thesis scorecard
Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.
Growth
ModerateSearch and cloud still support healthy growth, with AI as an additional lever.
Profitability
StrongCore search economics and improving cloud margins support strong returns.
Balance sheet
StrongLarge net cash gives Alphabet ample flexibility during the AI build-out.
Valuation
StrongShares still look reasonable relative to cash generation and balance-sheet strength.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution remains strong, though regulatory and search-disruption risk temper the view.
Key drivers
Search remains a high-quality cash engine with attractive incremental economics.
Cloud profitability is improving and increasingly matters to the sum-of-parts view.
The balance sheet supports ongoing AI investment without stressing capital allocation.
Key risks
Search disruption or weaker ad demand could pressure the core earnings base.
Regulatory action remains an overhang on both valuation and business flexibility.
AI monetization may take longer to offset higher infrastructure and content costs.
What would change our view
Faster cloud margin improvement would support a more constructive valuation view.
Evidence of sustained search share erosion would weaken our stance materially.
A clearer path to monetizing AI within Search would improve upside confidence.
Near-term catalysts
Search and cloud update cadence remains the most immediate input for valuation revisions.
AI product monetization disclosures could materially change the market's earnings bridge.
Regulatory developments can quickly affect sentiment even without changing near-term fundamentals.
What we are watching
Whether cloud margin gains remain durable as investment intensity stays elevated.
How AI features influence search behavior, monetization, and incremental cost structure.
Any change in regulatory risk that could alter the market's discount rate on the business.
Coverage metadata
Last updated
Mar 16, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest analyst action
Upgraded
Mar 16, 2026
Latest published rating
Buy
Mar 16, 2026
Analyst note
Current work is centered on cloud margin progression and the pace of AI monetization in Search.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Current price source
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 4:03 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Latest filing source
SEC EDGAR submissions API
4 filed Apr 3, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 1, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 3, 2026, 11:28 PM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC.
Open filing sourceCoverage timeline
Timeline events show published analyst actions and ratings. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 16, 2026
Upgraded to Buy as cloud margin progress and AI monetization improved the fair value range.
Jan 24, 2026
Stayed at Hold while cloud profitability improved but regulatory risk remained an overhang.
Dec 5, 2025
Entered coverage with a Hold view pending clearer AI monetization evidence.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$225
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$194
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$163
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Why this rating
The stock currently trades at $296 versus a base-case fair value of $194, implying -34.5 downside. That supports a Sell rating with Medium confidence under the current model.
Current price
$296
Fair value
$194
Upside / Downside
-34.5 downside
Model signal / Confidence
Sell / Medium
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods remain directionally aligned, with a moderate range from $188 to $209.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 32.0%, with -8 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning remains net cash positive at $78.3B, with balance sheet remains underlevered.
Valuation methods
| Method | Implied Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $188 | 50% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $193 | 30% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $209 | 20% |
Buy / Hold / Sell output
Current model recommendation
Sell
Price: $296
Fair value: $194
Implied upside / downside: -34.5 downside
Latest published rating: Buy on Mar 16, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.
What changed section
2026-03-16
Cloud margin assumptions increased after channel checks
Impact: +1.7% valuation uplift
2026-03-11
Raised AI monetization contribution in Search model
Impact: +0.9% EPS outlook
2026-03-05
Regulatory discount maintained in bear case
Impact: Caps multiple expansion