IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
IBM now reads as a steadier Hold with improving enterprise execution, but the current valuation spread still looks moderate rather than especially wide.
Live company workspace
This page is the active working surface. It combines the latest price context, filing status, reported fundamentals, refreshed model-base statements, current valuation output, and the scenario workbench. The report page stays separate as the published archival report.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 10, 2026.
Current model signal
Hold
Confidence: Low
Implied return: +4.0 upside
Fair value $234 vs. current $225 (+4.0 upside).
Live investment view
Base case stance: Hold with low confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $225 versus $234 fair value, implying +4.0 upside. This workspace updates with the latest daily scheduled quote and reported inputs, while the published report remains a point-in-time note.
Price basis warning
Current price-dependent output is using a stale scheduled quote. Fair value, upside / downside, and the model signal are still shown, but they should be read with caution until a fresher daily scheduled quote refresh is available.
Current model signal
Hold
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 10, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 10, 2026
Daily scheduled refresh
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:53 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:53 AM UTC.
Filing refreshed
4 filed Jun 4, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 4, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceFundamentals refreshed
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Current model signal
Hold
Confidence
Low
Stale scheduled quote
$225
Fair value
$234
Upside / Downside
+4.0 upside
Top drivers
Hybrid cloud, software, and enterprise services support a steadier revenue base than IBM's legacy profile once implied.
Cash generation remains durable enough to support the valuation floor even with meaningful leverage.
Top risks
Consulting or infrastructure softness could keep growth and margin improvement below the current base case.
Leverage remains a constraint if execution weakens or cash conversion slips.
Sector / Industry
Information Technology
IT Consulting & Other Services
Headquarters
Armonk, NY
Market Cap
$221B
Current / Fair Value
$225 / $234
Upside / Downside
+4.0 upside
Coverage snapshot
Report updated: Apr 10, 2026
Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.
Coverage currently spans twenty-eight companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, NFLX, V, MA, WMT, PG, JNJ, ADBE, CSCO, TXN, COST, KO, HD, PEP, QCOM, INTU, MCD, ADP, ABT, and IBM.
Model-base financial summary
Current annual model-base range: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Revenue (Latest FY)
FY2025 | +7.5% vs prior FY
$67.5B
Operating Margin
+75 bps vs prior FY
17.6%
FCF (Latest FY)
18.2% margin | FY2025
$12.3B
Net Cash / (Debt)
Leverage remains meaningful, but enterprise cash generation is durable
($38.0B)
Key ratios
EV / NTM EBITDA
Sector 13.6x
12.7x
P / NTM EPS
Sector 20.4x
18.4x
ROIC
Sector 12.7%
15.5%
Rule of 40
Healthy
26%
Base-case assumptions
These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
4.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Hybrid cloud, software, and enterprise services support a steadier revenue base than IBM's legacy profile once implied.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 4.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For International Business Machines Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.7%
+/- 0.5% => -$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage remains meaningful, but enterprise cash generation is durable
Operating Margin (Year 5)
18.0%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (17.6%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input keeps the base on durable software, consulting, and infrastructure economics rather than one period of mix or productivity benefit.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Scenario workbench
Analyst workbench
This is a private working layer, not the published AnalystScope base case or report view. It keeps the published base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates the fair-value estimate immediately.
Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for IBM. Base-case rationale remains in the assumptions section above. Scenario output now reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the published AnalystScope framework.
Editable assumptions
Adjust the inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the published base case.
This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.
Matches the published AnalystScope base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Published base case: 4.0% | +/- 1.0% => +/-$5/sh
Allowed range: 0.0% to 10.0%
Terminal Growth
Published base case: 2.5% | +/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Allowed range: 1.0% to 4.0%
WACC
Published base case: 8.7% | +/- 0.5% => -$6/sh
Allowed range: 6.7% to 10.7%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Published base case: 18.0% | +/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Allowed range: 10.0% to 26.0%
Private saved scenarios
Save up to 5 named scenarios for IBM. They never overwrite the published AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.
Checking private workspace session...
Private scenario note
Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.
0 / 280
Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.
No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.
Published base case
Fair value
$234
Upside / Downside
+4.0 upside
Model signal
Hold
Published base-case output
Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.
Fair value
$234
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
+4.0 upside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Hold
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Method movement inside the scenario
This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.
Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.
Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.
| Method | Published base | Edited scenario | Delta | How it moved / main drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF (Base) DCF-style | 45% weight | $221 | $221 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style | 35% weight | $246 | $246 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple | 20% weight | $241 | $241 | +$0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Weighted fair value Published framework result | Published framework result | $234 | $234 | -$0/sh | Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way. |
Published base case vs private scenarios
Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.
Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.
Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR (5Y) | Terminal Growth | WACC | Op. Margin (Y5) | Fair Value | Upside / Downside | Model Signal | Delta vs Base | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AnalystScope base case PublishedOfficial AnalystScope anchor row. | 4.0% | 2.5% | 8.7% | 18.0% | $234 | +4.0 upside | Hold | Published anchor |
Model-base financial statements
AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $61.9B | $62.8B | $67.5B |
| Gross Profit | $34.0B | $35.0B | $38.1B |
| Operating Income | $9.9B | $10.6B | $11.9B |
| EBITDA | $15.2B | $15.9B | $17.4B |
| Net Income | $7.7B | $8.2B | $9.4B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $15.0B | $16.0B | $17.0B |
| Total Debt | $57.0B | $56.0B | $55.0B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($42.0B) | ($40.0B) | ($38.0B) |
| Total Assets | $135.0B | $138.0B | $141.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $111.0B | $112.0B | $113.0B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $24.0B | $26.0B | $28.0B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $12.1B | $12.6B | $13.9B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $5.3B | $5.3B | $5.5B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($1.4B) | ($1.4B) | ($1.6B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $10.7B | $11.2B | $12.3B |
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For IBM, the model base is intended to reflect steadier hybrid-cloud and enterprise-cash-generation economics rather than quarter-specific mix or backlog timing.
Model-base diagnostics
Latest model base FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.
Income statement
Revenue
FY2025 $67.5B vs reported TTM $67.5B (-0.1%)
Cash flow
Free cash flow
FY2025 $12.3B vs reported TTM $12.1B (+1.6%)
FCF margin
FY2025 18.2% vs reported 17.9% (+0.3 pts)
Balance sheet
Net cash / (debt)
FY2025 Net debt $38.0B vs reported Net debt $54.4B
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $67.5B | Live reported | $67.5B +7.5% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths consulting timing, infrastructure cycle noise, and hybrid-cloud mix rather than extrapolating a single quarter of backlog conversion. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | Unavailable | Unavailable | 17.6% +75 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input keeps the base on durable software, consulting, and infrastructure economics rather than one period of mix or productivity benefit. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $12.1B | Live reported | $12.3B 18.2% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and keeps the cash-conversion base conservative. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($54.4B) | Live reported | ($38.0B) Leverage remains meaningful, but enterprise cash generation is durable Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment remains cautious and does not minimize IBM's still-material debt load. | Model base |
Reported vs durable model base
How to read this
Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.
This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.
Why the model base differs
For IBM, the model base is intended to reflect steadier hybrid-cloud and enterprise-cash-generation economics rather than quarter-specific mix or backlog timing.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.
| Metric | Model base | Live reported | Variance vs reported | Adjustment size | Why lower / higher? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Cash / (Debt) | ($38.0B) FY2025 model base | ($54.4B) Live reported balance sheet | +$16.4B / +24% of revenue | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is less conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure because the latest reported balance does not appear fully representative. It remains cautious and does not minimize IBM's still-material debt load. |
FCF (TTM) | $12.3B FY2025 model base | $12.1B Live reported TTM | +$200.0M / +2% | Close to reported | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest cash-flow drag is fully durable. It adjusts for working-capital timing and keeps the cash-conversion base conservative. |
Revenue (TTM) | $67.5B FY2025 model base | $67.5B Live reported TTM | +$0.0 / +0% | Close to reported | Model base keeps revenue close to live reported because the latest run-rate already looks broadly representative. It smooths consulting timing, infrastructure cycle noise, and hybrid-cloud mix rather than extrapolating a single quarter of backlog conversion. |
Operating Margin | 17.6% FY2025 model base | Unavailable Live reported margin | Unavailable | Unavailable | AnalystScope keeps a separate model base when the latest reported figure is unavailable or not directly comparable. It keeps the base on durable software, consulting, and infrastructure economics rather than one period of mix or productivity benefit. |
Ratios + trends
Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+7.5%
Gross margin
56.4%
Operating margin
17.6%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+0.8 pts
EBITDA margin
25.8%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+0.5 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+12.3%
Net margin
13.9%
FCF margin
18.2%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+0.4 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+9.8%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$17.0B
Total debt
$55.0B
Net cash / (debt)
Net debt $38.0B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net debt 56.3% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (-1.0 pts)
80.1%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
38.8 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.1x)
1.5x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.8x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.1x)
1.3x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+0.1 pts)
2.4%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (+0.4 pts)
11.5%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.3x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.3x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
41.5%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.5x
Financial diagnostics
Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.
Adjustment focus
Large analyst adjustmentBalance sheet | Net Cash / (Debt) | +$16.4B / +24% of revenue
Revenue momentum
Improving+7.5% latest 1Y growth
vs +1.5% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Stable17.6% latest margin
+75 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Stable18.2% latest FCF margin
+39 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StrengtheningNet debt 56.3% of revenue
vs Net debt 63.7% of revenue prior FY
Thesis scorecard
Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.
Growth
ModerateGrowth is improving, but still anchored to a steadier enterprise profile rather than a high-growth shape.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are healthier, though not yet at premium software levels.
Balance sheet
WeakLeverage remains material despite durable cash generation.
Valuation
ModerateThe valuation looks fair to mildly supportive, but not wide enough for a stronger rating.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateEnterprise entrenchment helps, though consulting and infrastructure still add some cycle exposure.
Key drivers
Hybrid cloud, software, and enterprise services support a steadier revenue base than IBM's legacy profile once implied.
Cash generation remains durable enough to support the valuation floor even with meaningful leverage.
The current multiple is more reasonable than many higher-growth software names, but the spread is still not especially wide.
Key risks
Consulting or infrastructure softness could keep growth and margin improvement below the current base case.
Leverage remains a constraint if execution weakens or cash conversion slips.
If the hybrid-cloud improvement narrative fades, the valuation support could narrow quickly.
What would change our view
A wider discount to fair value would make the enterprise-turnaround case more compelling.
Cleaner evidence of durable margin improvement across software and consulting would strengthen conviction.
If revenue quality weakens while leverage remains elevated, the current Hold case would deteriorate.
Near-term catalysts
Software growth, consulting demand, and infrastructure-cycle commentary remain the clearest near-term signals.
Free-cash-flow conversion and debt framing matter as much as headline revenue in this setup.
Any evidence that the current enterprise improvement is broadening beyond a few stronger segments would help sentiment.
What we are watching
Whether software and hybrid-cloud strength is broad enough to support the current through-cycle revenue base.
How durable free-cash-flow conversion remains after working-capital timing normalizes.
Whether leverage is trending down quickly enough to improve balance-sheet confidence.
Coverage metadata
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 10, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 10, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Apr 10, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Apr 10, 2026
Analyst note
Watching software mix, consulting durability, and whether IBM's improving enterprise profile is strong enough to offset the leverage overhang.
Coverage timeline
Timeline events show published note events and the rating that followed each event. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Apr 10, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on improving enterprise execution and a still-contained spread to fair value.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$250
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$234
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$216
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Why this rating
The stock is currently being evaluated against $225 versus a base-case fair value of $234, implying +4.0 upside. That supports a Hold rating with Low confidence under the current model.
Stale scheduled quote
$225
Fair value
$234
Upside / Downside
+4.0 upside
Model signal / Confidence
Hold / Low
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods remain directionally aligned, with a moderate range from $221 to $246.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 17.6%, with +75 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning currently reflects net debt of ($38.0B), with leverage remains meaningful, but enterprise cash generation is durable.
Valuation methods
| Method | Implied Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $221 | 45% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $246 | 35% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $241 | 20% |
Buy / Hold / Sell output
Current model recommendation
Hold
Price: $225
Fair value: $234
Implied upside / downside: +4.0 upside
Current published rating: Hold on Apr 10, 2026
The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.
What changed section
2026-04-10
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view on steadier enterprise execution versus a moderate valuation spread
2026-04-10
Kept debt treatment conservative
Impact: Avoids overstating upside from improving operations alone