META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
Communication Services / Internet Content & Information / Menlo Park, CA
AnalystScope signal
Hold
Scheduled quote
$646
Base fair value
$618
Bear / base / bull
$480 / $618 / $706
Upside / downside
-4.3 downside
Confidence
Medium
Research updated Mar 20, 2026
Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.
Informational research only. Not personalized investment advice.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Investment summary
Current view and thesis
Meta continues to pair durable ad monetization with improving Reels and messaging economics, while AI investment and Reality Labs spend remain the main offsets.
Fair value $618 vs. current $646 (-4.3 downside). Current base fair value is $618 versus $646, implying -4.3 downside.
Key drivers
Ad monetization remains supported by improving recommendation systems and Reels engagement.
Messaging and broader AI tools continue to expand monetization opportunities beyond the core feed.
Very strong cash generation supports a sustained AI capex cycle without stressing the balance sheet.
Key risks
AI and Reality Labs spending could stay elevated for longer than monetization supports.
Digital advertising demand remains sensitive to macro and regulatory shocks.
Policy or antitrust pressure could limit monetization flexibility across the platform set.
What would change the view
Faster ad conversion from AI products would improve conviction in the current upside case.
A more durable rise in Reality Labs losses without monetization progress would pressure the view.
Evidence of softer engagement monetization would likely reduce confidence in the base case.
Valuation
Price, range, and method support
Base case $618 / -4.3 downside / medium confidence
Price vs fair value
-4.3%
Model-implied return
Scheduled quote
$646
Fair value
$618
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $618
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$631 | 50%
NTM P/E Multiple
$615 | 30%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$590 | 20%
| Case / method | Value | Weight / support |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $631 | 50% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $615 | 30% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $590 | 20% |
| Bear case | $480 | Supportive |
| Base case | $618 | Supportive |
| Bull case | $706 | Mixed |
Fundamental analysis
Reported evidence and normalized model base
Normalized annual basis: FY2025
Normalized figures are AnalystScope's annual valuation model base.
| Normalized metric | Latest value | Growth / margin context |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $170.2B | +18.0% YoY |
| Operating income | $71.0B | 41.7% margin |
| Net income | $58.2B | EPS proxy $20.95 |
| Free cash flow | $61.5B | 36.1% margin |
| EBITDA | $79.9B | 46.9% margin |
| Net cash / (debt) | $41.8B | +24.6% of revenue |
| Metric | Reported | AnalystScope normalized | Basis note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $201.0B | $170.2B | Model revenue smooths advertising seasonality and changes in ad load measurement. |
| Operating Margin | 41.4% | 41.7% | Margin input normalizes Reality Labs investment intensity and quarter-specific AI infrastructure costs. |
| FCF (TTM) | $46.1B | $61.5B | FCF input cleans up capex timing and working-capital noise around infrastructure scaling. |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($35.3B) | $41.8B | Balance-sheet treatment keeps a conservative net-cash view after reserves and lease obligations. |
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+18.0% YoY
$170.2B
Op. margin
+4.2% pts
41.7%
FCF margin
+0.8% pts
36.1%
Revenue + margin trend
Annual normalized model-base history.
Revenue
Operating margin
AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $124.8B | $144.2B | $170.2B |
| Gross Profit | $100.1B | $116.9B | $138.9B |
| Operating Income | $40.1B | $54.1B | $71.0B |
| EBITDA | $46.3B | $61.5B | $79.9B |
| Net Income | $34.9B | $45.4B | $58.2B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $61.4B | $67.2B | $70.0B |
| Total Debt | $28.9B | $28.4B | $28.2B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $32.5B | $38.8B | $41.8B |
| Total Assets | $229.0B | $251.0B | $276.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $74.8B | $81.5B | $91.0B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $154.2B | $169.5B | $185.0B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $48.4B | $58.1B | $70.5B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $6.2B | $7.4B | $8.9B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($6.7B) | ($7.1B) | ($9.0B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $41.7B | $51.0B | $61.5B |
Model assumptions
Base-case inputs and sensitivity
Published AnalystScope assumptions; private edits do not change this base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
12.0%
±1.0% => ±$18/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Ad monetization remains supported by improving recommendation systems and Reels engagement.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$14/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 12.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Meta Platforms, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.8%
±0.5% => ∓$19/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash positive
Operating Margin (Year 5)
42.0%
±100 bps => ±$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (41.7%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes Reality Labs investment intensity and quarter-specific AI infrastructure costs.
Sensitivity drivers
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
12.0%
±1.0% => ±$18/sh
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$14/sh
WACC
8.8%
±0.5% => ∓$19/sh
Operating Margin (Year 5)
42.0%
±100 bps => ±$10/sh
Confidence
Medium
Method outputs are tightly grouped at +6.6% dispersion.
Why the model view could be wrong
AI and Reality Labs spending could stay elevated for longer than monetization supports.
Digital advertising demand remains sensitive to macro and regulatory shocks.
Policy or antitrust pressure could limit monetization flexibility across the platform set.
Private analysis
Test your own assumptions in Scenario Builder
Private scenarios remain separate from AnalystScope's published base case.
Private workspace
Scenario Builder
Private scenario sandbox
This is a private modelling layer, not the public AnalystScope base case or printable snapshot. It keeps the public base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates your scenario fair-value estimate immediately.
Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for META. Base-case rationale remains in the public assumptions section above. Your scenario output reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the AnalystScope framework.
Editable assumptions
Adjust your scenario inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the public AnalystScope base case.
This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.
Matches the published AnalystScope base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Public AnalystScope base case: 12.0% | ±1.0% => ±$18/sh
Allowed range: 6.0% to 18.0%
Terminal Growth
Public AnalystScope base case: 3.0% | ±0.5% => ±$14/sh
Allowed range: 1.5% to 4.5%
WACC
Public AnalystScope base case: 8.8% | ±0.5% => ∓$19/sh
Allowed range: 6.8% to 10.8%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Public AnalystScope base case: 42.0% | ±100 bps => ±$10/sh
Allowed range: 34.0% to 50.0%
Saved private scenarios
Save up to 5 named scenarios for META. These are your scenarios: they never overwrite the public AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.
Checking private workspace session...
Private scenario note
Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.
0 / 280
Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.
No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.
Published base case
Fair value
$618
Upside / Downside
-4.3 downside
Model signal
Hold
Published base-case output
Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.
Fair value
$618
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
-4.3 downside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Hold
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Method movement inside the scenario
This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.
Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.
Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.
| Method | Published base | Edited scenario | Delta | How it moved / main drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF (Base) DCF-style | 50% weight | $631 | $631 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style | 30% weight | $615 | $615 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple | 20% weight | $590 | $590 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Weighted fair value Published framework result | Published framework result | $618 | $618 | $0/sh | Base-aligned Combines the published method framework using the current inputs, which still align with the base-case result. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Published base case vs private scenarios
Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.
Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.
Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR (5Y) | Terminal Growth | WACC | Op. Margin (Y5) | Fair Value | Upside / Downside | Model Signal | Delta vs Base | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AnalystScope base case PublishedOfficial AnalystScope anchor row. | 12.0% | 3.0% | 8.8% | 42.0% | $618 | -4.3 downside | Hold | Published anchor |
Supporting research
Quality, normalization, and monitoring evidence
Annual model base: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Thesis scorecard
Growth
StrongCore ad demand, Reels monetization, and messaging tools still support healthy growth.
Profitability
StrongCore platform economics remain very strong despite heavy AI and Reality Labs investment.
Balance sheet
StrongNet cash and cash generation provide flexibility to sustain the current investment cycle.
Valuation
ModerateThe setup still offers upside, but quality and AI optionality are no longer inexpensive.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution remains strong, though regulatory and platform-policy risk still matter.
Current source status
Quote: Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.
Reported fundamentals: Fundamentals refreshed 21 Jul 2026, 00:39 UTC. Fresh through 21 Jul 2026, 12:39 UTC.
Latest filing: 144 filed Jul 20, 2026. Filing refreshed Jul 21, 2026, 12:39 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 21, 2026, 12:39 PM UTC.
Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+18.0%
Gross margin
81.6%
Operating margin
41.7%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+4.2 pts
EBITDA margin
46.9%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+4.3 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+31.2%
Net margin
34.2%
FCF margin
36.1%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+0.8 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+20.6%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$70.0B
Total debt
$28.2B
Net cash / (debt)
Net cash $41.8B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net cash 24.6% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (+0.5 pts)
33.0%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
39.9 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.1x)
1.2x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (-0.1x)
0.9x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.1x)
1.1x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+0.4 pts)
5.3%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (+0.5 pts)
12.8%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
1.0x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
2.5x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
108.7%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.6x
Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.
Adjustment focus
Large analyst adjustmentBalance sheet | Net Cash / (Debt) | +$77.1B / +38% of revenue
Revenue momentum
Stable+18.0% latest 1Y growth
vs +15.5% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Improving41.7% latest margin
+420 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Stable36.1% latest FCF margin
+77 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StableNet cash 24.6% of revenue
vs Net cash 26.9% of revenue prior FY
How to read this
Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.
This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.
Why the model base differs
For Meta, normalization reduces advertising-cycle and investment noise, which keeps the thesis anchored to durable cash generation rather than quarter-to-quarter margin swings.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.
| Metric | Model base | Live reported | Variance vs reported | Adjustment size | Why lower / higher? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Cash / (Debt) | $41.8B FY2025 model base | ($35.3B) Live reported balance sheet | +$77.1B / +38% of revenue | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is less conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure because the latest reported balance does not appear fully representative. It keeps a conservative net-cash view after reserves and lease obligations. |
FCF (TTM) | $61.5B FY2025 model base | $46.1B Live reported TTM | +$15.4B / +33% | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest cash-flow drag is fully durable. It cleans up capex timing and working-capital noise around infrastructure scaling. |
Revenue (TTM) | $170.2B FY2025 model base | $201.0B Live reported TTM | -$30.8B / -15% | Moderate adjustment | Model base is lower than live reported because the thesis does not carry the current revenue run-rate straight into the durable operating base. It smooths advertising seasonality and changes in ad load measurement. |
Operating Margin | 41.7% FY2025 model base | 41.4% Live reported margin | +0.3 pts | Close to reported | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest reported margin pressure is the durable earnings base. It normalizes Reality Labs investment intensity and quarter-specific AI infrastructure costs. |
Near-term catalysts
Ad pricing and engagement trends remain the nearest catalyst for estimate revisions.
Margin commentary around AI infrastructure and Reality Labs spend can move fair value quickly.
Updates on business messaging and AI agent monetization could improve sentiment on incremental upside.
What we are watching
Whether AI-driven ad efficiency gains remain durable as the investment cycle matures.
How quickly messaging and generative AI tools translate into meaningful revenue contributions.
Any change in regulatory posture that could affect platform economics or capital intensity.
| Date | Event | Published rating | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Upgraded | Buy | Upgraded to Buy as ad efficiency gains and AI monetization improved the fair value range. |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Reiterated | Hold | Maintained Hold while monetization improved but investment intensity stayed elevated. |
| Dec 16, 2025 | New | Hold | Initiated with a Hold stance given strong core economics but elevated spend uncertainty. |