United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Published Snapshot
United Parcel Service, Inc. is added as a high-quality large-cap coverage candidate with global parcel and logistics network with operating leverage to package volume. The initial AnalystScope view weighs volume recovery, mix improvement, and network productivity against turnaround upside depends on proof that volume and labor-cost headwinds are easing, keeping the rating restrained until the model has more live refresh history.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Hold signal with low confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $108 versus $109 fair value, implying +1.1 upside.
Price vs fair value
+0.8%
Model-implied return
Stale scheduled quote
$108
Fair value
$109
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $109
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$112 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$108 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$105 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+2.1% YoY
$93.0B
Op. margin
+0.5% pts
9.0%
FCF margin
+0.6% pts
6.3%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$112
NTM P/E Multiple
$108
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$105
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
Low
Stale scheduled quote
$108
Fair value
$109
+1.1 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 15, 2026, 7:30 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 16, 2026, 7:30 AM UTC.
Filing reference
8-K filed Jun 15, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 13, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
Moderatevolume recovery, mix improvement, and network productivity
Profitability
Strongpricing discipline and route density can rebuild margins if volume stabilizes
Balance sheet
Moderatedebt is manageable but free-cash-flow recovery remains important
Valuation
Moderateturnaround upside depends on proof that volume and labor-cost headwinds are easing
Execution / Resilience
Moderateparcel demand, mix, and labor-cost absorption remain the critical swing factors
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$124
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$109
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile constrain the base case.
Bear case
$84
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
3.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Network density can create strong operating leverage as volume recovers.
Terminal Growth
2.1%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.1%, it sits well below the 3.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For United Parcel Service, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.3%
+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage is manageable but demand recovery is needed for stronger upside
Operating Margin (Year 5)
10.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (9.0%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
This initial coverage setup keeps valuation tied to durable normalized fundamentals and avoids letting a single recent print dominate the public view.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $88.7B | Live reported | $93.0B +2.1% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths short-term demand, timing, and segment-mix volatility rather than treating the latest period as a straight-line run rate. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 8.9% | Live reported | 9.0% +47 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $4.8B | Live reported | $5.9B 6.3% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes working-capital and capital-spending timing so cash conversion is not over-read from one period. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($15.0B) | Live reported | ($16.7B) Leverage is manageable but demand recovery is needed for stronger upside Adjustment: Balance-sheet input uses a conservative net cash / debt posture without assuming all cash is excess or fully distributable. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $108 versus a base-case fair value of $109, implying +1.1 upside.
Fair value $109 vs. current $108 (+1.1 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $105 to $112.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 9.0%, with +47 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($16.7B), with leverage is manageable but demand recovery is needed for stronger upside.
Key drivers
Network density can create strong operating leverage as volume recovers.
Pricing discipline helps offset labor and mix pressure.
Global logistics footprint remains strategically valuable.
Key risks
Weak package volume would limit margin recovery.
Labor cost and mix pressure could offset productivity gains.
E-commerce and B2B demand swings can reduce forecast visibility.
What would change our view
A clearer evidence base around volume recovery, mix improvement, and network productivity would improve confidence.
A deterioration in pricing discipline and route density can rebuild margins if volume stabilizes would reduce support for the current fair value.
A wider gap between price and normalized cash-flow support would make the rating harder to defend.
Near-term catalysts
Next quarterly update and management commentary on demand quality.
Reported margin, cash-flow conversion, and balance-sheet movement versus the normalized model base.
Daily scheduled quote refreshes that tighten the current price-versus-fair-value read.
What we are watching
Domestic package volume and revenue per piece.
Operating margin recovery versus labor-cost pressure.
Free-cash-flow conversion as capex normalizes.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
New coverage entry focused on volume recovery, mix improvement, and network productivity and turnaround upside depends on proof that volume and labor-cost headwinds are easing.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on recovery potential versus still-muted volume and margin evidence.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Adds a logistics bellwether while keeping the initial valuation disciplined.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on recovery potential versus still-muted volume and margin evidence.