V
Visa Inc.
Visa remains a high-quality payments compounder with durable margins and cash generation, though the current setup looks more like a disciplined Hold than a wide-open upside case.
Live company workspace
This page is the active working surface. It combines the latest price context, filing status, reported fundamentals, refreshed model-base statements, current valuation output, and the scenario workbench. The report page stays separate as the published archival report.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 8, 2026.
Current model signal
Buy
Confidence: High
Implied return: +18.1 upside
Fair value $364 vs. current $308 (+18.1 upside).
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live investment view
Base case stance: Buy with high confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $308 versus $364 fair value, implying +18.1 upside. This workspace updates with the latest daily scheduled quote and reported inputs, while the published report remains a point-in-time note.
Price basis warning
Current price-dependent output is using a stale scheduled quote. Fair value, upside / downside, and the model signal are still shown, but they should be read with caution until a fresher daily scheduled quote refresh is available.
Current model signal
Buy
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 8, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 8, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Daily scheduled refresh
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Apr 10, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC. Fresh through Apr 11, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Filing refreshed
4 filed May 13, 2026 | Reporting period May 12, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceFundamentals refreshed
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-30.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Current model signal
Buy
Confidence
High
Stale scheduled quote
$308
Fair value
$364
Upside / Downside
+18.1 upside
Top drivers
Cross-border recovery and continued digital payment share gains remain the main revenue levers.
High fixed-cost leverage keeps incremental margin conversion attractive as volume scales.
Top risks
Regulatory pressure on fees or network rules could narrow the long-run margin structure.
A slower consumer-spend backdrop would reduce volume growth more than the current base case assumes.
Sector / Industry
Financials
Payment Processing
Headquarters
San Francisco, CA
Market Cap
$700B
Current / Fair Value
$308 / $364
Upside / Downside
+18.1 upside
Coverage snapshot
Report updated: Apr 10, 2026
Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.
Coverage currently spans twenty-eight companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, NFLX, V, MA, WMT, PG, JNJ, ADBE, CSCO, TXN, COST, KO, HD, PEP, QCOM, INTU, MCD, ADP, ABT, and IBM.
Model-base financial summary
Current annual model-base range: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Revenue (Latest FY)
FY2025 | +10.9% vs prior FY
$39.8B
Operating Margin
+59 bps vs prior FY
53.5%
FCF (Latest FY)
55.3% margin | FY2025
$22.0B
Net Cash / (Debt)
Net cash after conservative settlement and capital-return treatment
$3.2B
Key ratios
EV / NTM EBITDA
Sector 18.2x
20.8x
P / NTM EPS
Sector 23.4x
28.4x
ROIC
Sector 15.1%
28.2%
Rule of 40
Strong
41%
Base-case assumptions
These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
9.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$16/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Cross-border recovery and continued digital payment share gains remain the main revenue levers.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 9.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Visa Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.4%
+/- 0.5% => -$15/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash after conservative settlement and capital-return treatment
Operating Margin (Year 5)
54.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (53.5%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input keeps the durable payments operating base separate from temporary incentive or mix swings.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Scenario workbench
Analyst workbench
This is a private working layer, not the published AnalystScope base case or report view. It keeps the published base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates the fair-value estimate immediately.
Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for V. Base-case rationale remains in the assumptions section above. Scenario output now reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the published AnalystScope framework.
Editable assumptions
Adjust the inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the published base case.
This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.
Matches the published AnalystScope base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Published base case: 9.0% | +/- 1.0% => +/-$16/sh
Allowed range: 3.0% to 15.0%
Terminal Growth
Published base case: 3.0% | +/- 0.5% => +/-$12/sh
Allowed range: 1.5% to 4.5%
WACC
Published base case: 8.4% | +/- 0.5% => -$15/sh
Allowed range: 6.4% to 10.4%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Published base case: 54.5% | +/- 100 bps => +/-$10/sh
Allowed range: 46.5% to 62.5%
Private saved scenarios
Save up to 5 named scenarios for V. They never overwrite the published AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.
Checking private workspace session...
Private scenario note
Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.
0 / 280
Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.
No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.
Published base case
Fair value
$364
Upside / Downside
+18.1 upside
Model signal
Buy
Published base-case output
Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.
Fair value
$364
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
+18.1 upside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Buy
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Method movement inside the scenario
This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.
Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.
Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.
| Method | Published base | Edited scenario | Delta | How it moved / main drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF (Base) DCF-style | 50% weight | $372 | $372 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style | 30% weight | $360 | $360 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple | 20% weight | $350 | $350 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Weighted fair value Published framework result | Published framework result | $364 | $364 | $0/sh | Base-aligned Combines the published method framework using the current inputs, which still align with the base-case result. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Published base case vs private scenarios
Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.
Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.
Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR (5Y) | Terminal Growth | WACC | Op. Margin (Y5) | Fair Value | Upside / Downside | Model Signal | Delta vs Base | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AnalystScope base case PublishedOfficial AnalystScope anchor row. | 9.0% | 3.0% | 8.4% | 54.5% | $364 | +18.1 upside | Buy | Published anchor |
Model-base financial statements
AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.7B | $35.9B | $39.8B |
| Gross Profit | $26.2B | $29.1B | $32.4B |
| Operating Income | $17.0B | $19.0B | $21.3B |
| EBITDA | $17.7B | $19.7B | $22.1B |
| Net Income | $15.7B | $17.6B | $19.7B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $21.0B | $22.4B | $23.0B |
| Total Debt | $21.2B | $20.8B | $19.8B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($200.0M) | $1.6B | $3.2B |
| Total Assets | $94.0B | $98.0B | $102.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $58.4B | $59.2B | $60.0B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $35.6B | $38.8B | $42.0B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $19.0B | $21.0B | $23.5B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $700.0M | $700.0M | $800.0M |
| Capital Expenditures | ($1.2B) | ($1.3B) | ($1.5B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $17.8B | $19.7B | $22.0B |
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-30.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For Visa, the model base is meant to reflect durable network economics rather than any single quarter's travel, FX, or client-incentive timing.
Model-base diagnostics
Latest model base FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.
Income statement
Revenue
FY2025 $39.8B vs reported TTM $40.0B (-0.5%)
Operating margin
FY2025 53.5% vs reported 60.0% (-6.5 pts)
Cash flow
Free cash flow
FY2025 $22.0B vs reported TTM $21.6B (+2.0%)
FCF margin
FY2025 55.3% vs reported 53.9% (+1.3 pts)
Balance sheet
Net cash / (debt)
FY2025 Net cash $3.2B vs reported Net debt $11.6B
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $40.0B | Live reported | $39.8B +10.9% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths cross-border travel volatility and quarter-specific settlement timing. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 60.0% | Live reported | 53.5% +59 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input keeps the durable payments operating base separate from temporary incentive or mix swings. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $21.6B | Live reported | $22.0B 55.3% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing tied to settlement float and partner-payment cadence. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($11.6B) | Live reported | $3.2B Net cash after conservative settlement and capital-return treatment Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps excess cash conservative after regulatory and settlement operating needs. | Model base |
Reported vs durable model base
How to read this
Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.
This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.
Why the model base differs
For Visa, the model base is meant to reflect durable network economics rather than any single quarter's travel, FX, or client-incentive timing.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.
| Metric | Model base | Live reported | Variance vs reported | Adjustment size | Why lower / higher? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Cash / (Debt) | $3.2B FY2025 model base | ($11.6B) Live reported balance sheet | +$14.8B / +37% of revenue | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is less conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure because the latest reported balance does not appear fully representative. It keeps excess cash conservative after regulatory and settlement operating needs. |
Operating Margin | 53.5% FY2025 model base | 60.0% Live reported margin | -6.5 pts | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is lower than live reported because current margin strength is not being treated as a permanent through-cycle outcome. It keeps the durable payments operating base separate from temporary incentive or mix swings. |
FCF (TTM) | $22.0B FY2025 model base | $21.6B Live reported TTM | +$400.0M / +2% | Close to reported | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest cash-flow drag is fully durable. It adjusts for working-capital timing tied to settlement float and partner-payment cadence. |
Revenue (TTM) | $39.8B FY2025 model base | $40.0B Live reported TTM | -$200.0M / 0% | Close to reported | Model base is lower than live reported because the thesis does not carry the current revenue run-rate straight into the durable operating base. It smooths cross-border travel volatility and quarter-specific settlement timing. |
Ratios + trends
Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+10.9%
Gross margin
81.4%
Operating margin
53.5%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+0.6 pts
EBITDA margin
55.5%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+0.7 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+12.1%
Net margin
49.5%
FCF margin
55.3%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+0.4 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+11.7%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$23.0B
Total debt
$19.8B
Net cash / (debt)
Net cash $3.2B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net cash 8.0% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (-1.6 pts)
58.8%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
27.9 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.2x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.1x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.1x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+0.1 pts)
3.8%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (+0.2 pts)
6.4%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
1.9x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
1.2x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
105.5%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.4x
Financial diagnostics
Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.
Adjustment focus
Large analyst adjustmentBalance sheet | Net Cash / (Debt) | +$14.8B / +37% of revenue
Revenue momentum
Stable+10.9% latest 1Y growth
vs +9.8% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Stable53.5% latest margin
+59 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Stable55.3% latest FCF margin
+40 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StrengtheningNet cash 8.0% of revenue
vs Net cash 4.5% of revenue prior FY
Thesis scorecard
Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.
Growth
ModerateSecular payments mix shift still supports growth, but the base is large and normalization matters.
Profitability
StrongNetwork economics and scale support elite incremental margins.
Balance sheet
StrongCash generation and conservative capital needs keep the balance sheet flexible.
Valuation
ModerateQuality stays high, but the current spread to fair value is not unusually wide.
Execution / Resilience
StrongGlobal acceptance and recurring transaction volumes support resilience.
Key drivers
Cross-border recovery and continued digital payment share gains remain the main revenue levers.
High fixed-cost leverage keeps incremental margin conversion attractive as volume scales.
Strong cash generation supports both valuation and ongoing capital return.
Key risks
Regulatory pressure on fees or network rules could narrow the long-run margin structure.
A slower consumer-spend backdrop would reduce volume growth more than the current base case assumes.
Larger client-incentive investments could cap near-term operating leverage.
What would change our view
A broader volume slowdown or fee compression would make the current fair-value range harder to defend.
Sustained cross-border acceleration with stable incentives would improve the setup.
A more obvious gap between current price and durable payments cash flow would likely move the name back toward Buy.
Near-term catalysts
Cross-border volume trends and pricing commentary remain the cleanest near-term read-throughs.
Client-incentive cadence can shift quarterly margin optics faster than the headline revenue line.
Any regulatory or litigation developments around interchange still matter for sentiment.
What we are watching
Whether cross-border volumes keep supporting growth without a corresponding deterioration in incentives.
How durable free-cash-flow conversion stays if spend growth softens.
Any sign that network pricing power is eroding in larger merchant categories.
Coverage metadata
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 8, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 8, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Apr 8, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Apr 8, 2026
Analyst note
Watching cross-border mix, client-incentive cadence, and whether durable network economics widen the valuation spread again.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Coverage timeline
Timeline events show published note events and the rating that followed each event. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Apr 8, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on durable quality versus a more modest valuation gap.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$405
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$364
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$325
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support remain supportive in the bear case.
Why this rating
The stock is currently being evaluated against $308 versus a base-case fair value of $364, implying +18.1 upside. That supports a Buy rating with High confidence under the current model.
Stale scheduled quote
$308
Fair value
$364
Upside / Downside
+18.1 upside
Model signal / Confidence
Buy / High
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $350 to $372.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 53.5%, with +59 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning remains net cash positive at $3.2B, with net cash after conservative settlement and capital-return treatment.
Valuation methods
| Method | Implied Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $372 | 50% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $360 | 30% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $350 | 20% |
Buy / Hold / Sell output
Current model recommendation
Buy
Price: $308
Fair value: $364
Implied upside / downside: +18.1 upside
Current published rating: Hold on Apr 8, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.
What changed section
2026-04-08
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view at current valuation spread
2026-04-08
Set conservative settlement-float treatment
Impact: Keeps balance-sheet support restrained