AnalystScope

AAPL

Apple Inc.

Apple remains a premium ecosystem franchise with resilient installed-base monetization, though near-term device cycles and regulatory scrutiny keep upside more balanced.

Live company workspace

This page is the current view. It combines the latest price context, filing status, reported fundamentals, refreshed normalized statements, and the current model output. Published actions and ratings stay here as reference, while the report page preserves the point-in-time note.

Latest analyst action: Reiterated
Latest published rating: Hold
Open published report

Current model signal

Hold

Confidence: Medium

Implied return: +4.1 upside

Fair value $214 vs. current $206 (+4.1 upside).

Live investment view

Base case stance: Hold with medium confidence as shares trade at $206 versus $214 fair value, implying +4.1 upside. This workspace updates with the latest live inputs, while the published report remains a point-in-time note.

Current model signal

Hold

Latest analyst action

Reiterated

Published Mar 15, 2026

Latest published rating

Hold

Published Mar 15, 2026

Current price data

AnalystScope curated current price

Live market-price fetch unavailable. Using the curated current price field.

Latest filing / report

4 filed Apr 3, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 1, 2026

Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 PM UTC.

Open filing source

Reported fundamentals

SEC XBRL companyfacts API

Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-27.

Last refreshed 3 Apr 2026, 21:01 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 09:01 UTC.

Current model signal

Hold

Confidence

Medium

Current price

$206

Fair value

$214

Upside / Downside

+4.1 upside

Top drivers

Services mix and installed-base monetization continue to support cash generation quality.

Brand strength and customer retention still provide a premium margin structure.

Top risks

A slower replacement cycle can weigh on revenue growth for longer than the market expects.

Regulatory changes around platform economics could pressure higher-margin services revenue.

Sector / Industry

Information Technology

Consumer Electronics

Headquarters

Cupertino, CA

Market Cap

$2.9T

Current / Fair Value

$206 / $214

Upside / Downside

+4.1 upside

Data status

Last updated: Mar 20, 2026

Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.

Coverage is currently limited to ten companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, and NFLX.

Normalized financial summary

Curated normalized annual basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025

Revenue (Latest FY)

FY2025 | +6.4% vs prior FY

$416.2B

Operating Margin

+49 bps vs prior FY

32.0%

FCF (Latest FY)

23.7% margin | FY2025

$98.6B

Net Cash / (Debt)

Capital returns remain a priority

($36.0B)

Key ratios

EV / NTM EBITDA

Sector 14.9x

20.8x

P / NTM EPS

Sector 23.5x

28.4x

ROIC

Sector 14.2%

31.1%

Rule of 40

Solid

34%

Base-case assumptions

These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

5.0%

±0.5% => ±$9/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest normalized FY revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Services mix and installed-base monetization continue to support cash generation quality.

Terminal Growth

2.5%

±0.5% => ±$12/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 5.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Apple Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.

WACC

8.0%

±0.5% => ∓$14/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Capital returns remain a priority

Operating Margin (Year 5)

31.0%

±100 bps => ±$7/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's normalized operating margin (32.0%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes product-mix noise and avoids overreacting to quarter-specific launch costs.

How to read the assumptions and sensitivities

These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.

Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.

bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.

WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.

Scenario workbench

Analyst workbench

This is a local edited scenario, not the published AnalystScope base case or report view. It keeps the published base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates the fair-value estimate immediately.

Base-case rationale remains in the assumptions section above. This first slice uses the published sensitivities to estimate how the edited scenario changes fair value while the cross-check methods remain the published reference point.

Editable assumptions

Adjust the inputs within a reasonable range. Edits stay local to this browser session.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

Published base case: 5.0% | ±0.5% => ±$9/sh

Range: 0.0% to 11.0%

Terminal Growth

Published base case: 2.5% | ±0.5% => ±$12/sh

Range: 1.0% to 4.0%

WACC

Published base case: 8.0% | ±0.5% => ∓$14/sh

Range: 6.0% to 10.0%

Operating Margin (Year 5)

Published base case: 31.0% | ±100 bps => ±$7/sh

Range: 23.0% to 39.0%

Published base case

Fair value

$214

Upside / Downside

+4.1 upside

Model signal

Hold

Edited scenario

Fair value

$214

$0/sh vs published base case

Upside / Downside

+3.9 upside

+0.0 pts vs published base case

Model signal

Hold

Unchanged versus the published base case.

Normalized financial statements

Curated normalized annual statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.

Income statement

Line itemFY2023FY2024FY2025
Revenue$383.3B$391.0B$416.2B
Gross Profit$169.0B$180.6B$195.2B
Operating Income$114.2B$123.2B$133.2B
EBITDA$125.7B$134.5B$144.9B
Net Income$97.0B$93.8B$112.0B

Balance sheet

Line itemFY2023FY2024FY2025
Cash & Investments$62.3B$65.2B$54.7B
Total Debt$105.1B$96.7B$90.7B
Net Cash / (Debt)($42.8B)($31.5B)($36.0B)
Total Assets$352.6B$365.0B$359.2B
Total Liabilities$290.5B$308.0B$285.5B
Shareholders' Equity$62.1B$57.0B$73.7B

Cash flow

Line itemFY2023FY2024FY2025
Operating Cash Flow$110.4B$118.1B$111.5B
Depreciation & Amortization$11.5B$11.3B$11.7B
Capital Expenditures($11.1B)($9.4B)($12.9B)
Free Cash Flow$99.3B$108.7B$98.6B

Model inputs vs reported fundamentals

Side-by-side view of the live reported fundamentals versus the latest normalized annual inputs still used in the current public analysis model.

Reported fundamentals source

SEC XBRL companyfacts API

Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-27.

Last refreshed 3 Apr 2026, 21:01 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 09:01 UTC.

Normalization impact on the thesis

The Apple normalization approach smooths cycle volatility and places more emphasis on durable ecosystem cash generation than on any single reported hardware quarter.

Statement basis diagnostics

Latest normalized basis FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.

Income statement

Revenue

FY2025 $416.2B vs reported TTM $416.2B (+0.0%)

Operating margin

FY2025 32.0% vs reported 32.0% (+0.0 pts)

Cash flow

Free cash flow

FY2025 $98.6B vs reported TTM $98.8B (-0.2%)

FCF margin

FY2025 23.7% vs reported 23.7% (-0.0 pts)

Balance sheet

Net cash / (debt)

FY2025 Net debt $36.0B vs reported Net debt $43.2B

MetricReportedStatusModel inputStatus
Revenue (TTM)$416.2BLive reported$416.2B

+6.4% YoY

Adjustment: Model revenue smooths hardware cycle timing and leans on a steadier installed-base monetization view.

Model / normalized
Operating Margin32.0%Live reported32.0%

+49 bps YoY

Adjustment: Margin input normalizes product-mix noise and avoids overreacting to quarter-specific launch costs.

Model / normalized
FCF (TTM)$98.8BLive reported$98.6B

23.7% margin

Adjustment: FCF input strips temporary working-capital and supplier-payment timing effects.

Model / normalized
Net Cash / (Debt)($43.2B)Live reported($36.0B)

Capital returns remain a priority

Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment reflects cash generation strength while retaining a conservative debt view.

Model / normalized

Normalization review

The Apple normalization approach smooths cycle volatility and places more emphasis on durable ecosystem cash generation than on any single reported hardware quarter.

Rows are sorted by largest comparable drift first.

MetricLatest normalized basisLatest live reportedDelta / varianceMaterialityNormalization rationale

Net Cash / (Debt)

($36.0B)

FY2025 normalized

($43.2B)

Live reported balance sheet

+$7.2B / +1.7% of revenueIn bandBalance-sheet treatment reflects cash generation strength while retaining a conservative debt view.

FCF (TTM)

$98.6B

FY2025 normalized

$98.8B

Live reported TTM

-$200.0M / -0.2%In bandFCF input strips temporary working-capital and supplier-payment timing effects.

Operating Margin

32.0%

FY2025 normalized

32.0%

Live reported margin

+0.0 ptsIn bandMargin input normalizes product-mix noise and avoids overreacting to quarter-specific launch costs.

Revenue (TTM)

$416.2B

FY2025 normalized

$416.2B

Live reported TTM

+$0.0 / +0.0%In bandModel revenue smooths hardware cycle timing and leans on a steadier installed-base monetization view.

Financial diagnostics

Compact normalized-basis diagnostics for analyst triage.

Revenue momentum

Improving

+6.4% latest 1Y growth

vs +2.0% prior 1Y

Operating margin trend

Stable

32.0% latest margin

+49 bps vs prior FY

FCF margin trend

Weakening

23.7% latest FCF margin

-411 bps vs prior FY

Balance-sheet posture

Stable

Net debt 8.6% of revenue

vs Net debt 8.1% of revenue prior FY

Thesis scorecard

Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.

Growth

Moderate

Growth is steadier than exceptional and still tied to hardware cycle timing.

Profitability

Strong

Services mix and premium positioning support strong margins.

Balance sheet

Moderate

Net debt reflects capital returns, though cash generation remains very strong.

Valuation

Moderate

The franchise deserves a premium, but upside remains relatively balanced.

Execution / Resilience

Strong

The ecosystem and installed base continue to anchor resilience.

Key drivers

Services mix and installed-base monetization continue to support cash generation quality.

Brand strength and customer retention still provide a premium margin structure.

Capital returns remain an important part of the valuation floor.

Key risks

A slower replacement cycle can weigh on revenue growth for longer than the market expects.

Regulatory changes around platform economics could pressure higher-margin services revenue.

Hardware innovation cycles may prove less catalytic than prior product refresh periods.

What would change our view

A stronger services growth trajectory would improve our view on the earnings mix.

A materially weaker device cycle would lower confidence in the current base case.

Clearer evidence of a new product-led demand cycle would shift the rating more positively.

Near-term catalysts

Upcoming device-cycle checks and services momentum remain the main near-term catalysts.

Capital return updates can matter meaningfully for the downside floor in a balanced rating setup.

Any new product or ecosystem adoption signal could influence the market's growth narrative.

What we are watching

Whether services growth can continue to offset a slower hardware replacement cycle.

How regulators shape platform economics around higher-margin ecosystem revenue streams.

Any evidence that customer upgrade intent is improving ahead of the next major cycle.

Coverage metadata

Last updated

Mar 15, 2026

Coverage status

Active coverage

Latest analyst action

Reiterated

Mar 15, 2026

Latest published rating

Hold

Mar 15, 2026

Analyst note

Focus remains on services mix resilience, replacement timing, and the durability of capital returns.

Current price source

AnalystScope curated current price

Live market-price fetch unavailable. Using the curated current price field.

Reported fundamentals source

SEC XBRL companyfacts API

Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-27.

Last refreshed 3 Apr 2026, 21:01 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 09:01 UTC.

Latest filing source

SEC EDGAR submissions API

4 filed Apr 3, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 1, 2026

Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 PM UTC.

Open filing source

Coverage timeline

Timeline events show published analyst actions and ratings. The current model signal is shown separately above.

Mar 15, 2026

ReiteratedHold

Maintained Hold as services resilience offset a still-balanced device outlook.

Jan 22, 2026

ReiteratedHold

Kept Hold with upside and regulatory risk still broadly balanced.

Dec 8, 2025

NewHold

Initiated coverage with a balanced stance on franchise quality versus valuation.

Bull / Base / Bear scenarios

Bull case

$238

Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.

Base case

$214

Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.

Bear case

$187

Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.

Why this rating

The stock currently trades at $206 versus a base-case fair value of $214, implying +4.1 upside. That supports a Hold rating with Medium confidence under the current model.

Current price

$206

Fair value

$214

Upside / Downside

+4.1 upside

Model signal / Confidence

Hold / Medium

Confidence framing

Method agreement / dispersion

Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $208 to $223.

Margin strength

Operating margin is 32.0%, with +49 bps vs prior FY.

Balance sheet position

Balance sheet positioning currently reflects net debt of ($36.0B), with capital returns remain a priority.

Valuation methods

MethodImplied ValueWeight
DCF (Base)$20845%
NTM P/E Multiple$21835%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check$22320%

Buy / Hold / Sell output

Current model recommendation

Hold

Price: $206

Fair value: $214

Implied upside / downside: +4.1 upside

Latest published rating: Hold on Mar 15, 2026

The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.

What changed section

2026-03-15

Services growth assumptions lifted after mixed device checks

Impact: +1.0% base case

2026-03-09

Adjusted iPhone replacement-cycle forecast lower

Impact: -0.8% revenue estimate

2026-03-04

Capital return outlook extended in model

Impact: Supportive for valuation floor