AAPL
Apple Inc.
Apple remains a premium ecosystem franchise with resilient installed-base monetization, though near-term device cycles and regulatory scrutiny keep upside more balanced.
Live company workspace
This page is the active working surface. It combines the latest price context, filing status, reported fundamentals, refreshed model-base statements, current valuation output, and the scenario workbench. The report page stays separate as the published archival report.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 15, 2026.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence: Medium
Implied return: -29.9 downside
Fair value $212 vs. current $302 (-29.9 downside).
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live investment view
Base case stance: Sell with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $302 versus $212 fair value, implying -29.9 downside. This workspace updates with the latest daily scheduled quote and reported inputs, while the published report remains a point-in-time note.
Price basis warning
Current price-dependent output is using a stale scheduled quote. Fair value, upside / downside, and the model signal are still shown, but they should be read with caution until a fresher daily scheduled quote refresh is available.
Current model signal
Sell
Latest note event
Reiterated
Published Mar 15, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Mar 15, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Daily scheduled refresh
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC.
Filing refreshed
4 filed May 29, 2026 | Reporting period May 27, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceFundamentals refreshed
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-27.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$302
Fair value
$212
Upside / Downside
-29.9 downside
Top drivers
Services mix and installed-base monetization continue to support cash generation quality.
Brand strength and customer retention still provide a premium margin structure.
Top risks
A slower replacement cycle can weigh on revenue growth for longer than the market expects.
Regulatory changes around platform economics could pressure higher-margin services revenue.
Sector / Industry
Information Technology
Consumer Electronics
Headquarters
Cupertino, CA
Market Cap
$2.9T
Current / Fair Value
$302 / $212
Upside / Downside
-29.9 downside
Coverage snapshot
Report updated: Apr 10, 2026
Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.
Coverage currently spans twenty-eight companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, NFLX, V, MA, WMT, PG, JNJ, ADBE, CSCO, TXN, COST, KO, HD, PEP, QCOM, INTU, MCD, ADP, ABT, and IBM.
Model-base financial summary
Current annual model-base range: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Revenue (Latest FY)
FY2025 | +2.0% vs prior FY
$391.2B
Operating Margin
+88 bps vs prior FY
31.4%
FCF (Latest FY)
25.5% margin | FY2025
$99.8B
Net Cash / (Debt)
Capital returns remain a priority
($58.2B)
Key ratios
EV / NTM EBITDA
Sector 14.9x
20.8x
P / NTM EPS
Sector 23.5x
28.4x
ROIC
Sector 14.2%
31.1%
Rule of 40
Solid
34%
Base-case assumptions
These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
5.0%
±0.5% => ±$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Services mix and installed-base monetization continue to support cash generation quality.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
±0.5% => ±$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 5.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Apple Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.0%
±0.5% => ∓$14/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Capital returns remain a priority
Operating Margin (Year 5)
31.0%
±100 bps => ±$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (31.4%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes product-mix noise and avoids overreacting to quarter-specific launch costs.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Scenario workbench
Analyst workbench
This is a private working layer, not the published AnalystScope base case or report view. It keeps the published base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates the fair-value estimate immediately.
Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for AAPL. Base-case rationale remains in the assumptions section above. Scenario output now reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the published AnalystScope framework.
Editable assumptions
Adjust the inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the published base case.
This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.
Matches the published AnalystScope base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Published base case: 5.0% | ±0.5% => ±$9/sh
Allowed range: 0.0% to 11.0%
Terminal Growth
Published base case: 2.5% | ±0.5% => ±$12/sh
Allowed range: 1.0% to 4.0%
WACC
Published base case: 8.0% | ±0.5% => ∓$14/sh
Allowed range: 6.0% to 10.0%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Published base case: 31.0% | ±100 bps => ±$7/sh
Allowed range: 23.0% to 39.0%
Private saved scenarios
Save up to 5 named scenarios for AAPL. They never overwrite the published AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.
Checking private workspace session...
Private scenario note
Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.
0 / 280
Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.
No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.
Published base case
Fair value
$212
Upside / Downside
-29.9 downside
Model signal
Sell
Published base-case output
Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.
Fair value
$212
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
-29.9 downside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Sell
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Method movement inside the scenario
This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.
Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.
Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.
| Method | Published base | Edited scenario | Delta | How it moved / main drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF (Base) DCF-style | 45% weight | $210 | $210 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style | 35% weight | $218 | $218 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple | 20% weight | $205 | $205 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Weighted fair value Published framework result | Published framework result | $212 | $212 | -$0/sh | Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way. |
Published base case vs private scenarios
Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.
Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.
Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR (5Y) | Terminal Growth | WACC | Op. Margin (Y5) | Fair Value | Upside / Downside | Model Signal | Delta vs Base | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AnalystScope base case PublishedOfficial AnalystScope anchor row. | 5.0% | 2.5% | 8.0% | 31.0% | $212 | -29.9 downside | Sell | Published anchor |
Model-base financial statements
AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $383.3B | $383.5B | $391.2B |
| Gross Profit | $169.0B | $172.6B | $178.0B |
| Operating Income | $115.4B | $117.0B | $122.8B |
| EBITDA | $126.9B | $128.5B | $134.9B |
| Net Income | $95.8B | $96.3B | $99.4B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $61.2B | $63.5B | $67.0B |
| Total Debt | $116.7B | $121.7B | $125.2B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($55.5B) | ($58.2B) | ($58.2B) |
| Total Assets | $352.0B | $360.0B | $370.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $289.9B | $299.0B | $309.7B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $62.1B | $61.0B | $60.3B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $111.9B | $112.4B | $115.4B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $11.5B | $11.5B | $12.1B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($15.7B) | ($15.3B) | ($15.6B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $96.2B | $97.1B | $99.8B |
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-27.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
The Apple normalization approach smooths cycle volatility and places more emphasis on durable ecosystem cash generation than on any single reported hardware quarter.
Model-base diagnostics
Latest model base FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.
Income statement
Revenue
FY2025 $391.2B vs reported TTM $416.2B (-6.0%)
Operating margin
FY2025 31.4% vs reported 32.0% (-0.6 pts)
Cash flow
Free cash flow
FY2025 $99.8B vs reported TTM $98.8B (+1.0%)
FCF margin
FY2025 25.5% vs reported 23.7% (+1.8 pts)
Balance sheet
Net cash / (debt)
FY2025 Net debt $58.2B vs reported Net debt $37.1B
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $416.2B | Live reported | $391.2B +2.0% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths hardware cycle timing and leans on a steadier installed-base monetization view. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 32.0% | Live reported | 31.4% +88 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes product-mix noise and avoids overreacting to quarter-specific launch costs. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $98.8B | Live reported | $99.8B 25.5% margin Adjustment: FCF input strips temporary working-capital and supplier-payment timing effects. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($37.1B) | Live reported | ($58.2B) Capital returns remain a priority Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment reflects cash generation strength while retaining a conservative debt view. | Model base |
Reported vs durable model base
How to read this
Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.
This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.
Why the model base differs
The Apple normalization approach smooths cycle volatility and places more emphasis on durable ecosystem cash generation than on any single reported hardware quarter.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.
| Metric | Model base | Live reported | Variance vs reported | Adjustment size | Why lower / higher? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (TTM) | $391.2B FY2025 model base | $416.2B Live reported TTM | -$25.0B / -6% | Close to reported | Model base is lower than live reported because the thesis does not carry the current revenue run-rate straight into the durable operating base. It smooths hardware cycle timing and leans on a steadier installed-base monetization view. |
Net Cash / (Debt) | ($58.2B) FY2025 model base | ($37.1B) Live reported balance sheet | -$21.1B / -5% of revenue | Moderate adjustment | Model base is more conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure. It reflects cash generation strength while retaining a conservative debt view. |
FCF (TTM) | $99.8B FY2025 model base | $98.8B Live reported TTM | +$1.0B / +1% | Close to reported | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest cash-flow drag is fully durable. It strips temporary working-capital and supplier-payment timing effects. |
Operating Margin | 31.4% FY2025 model base | 32.0% Live reported margin | -0.6 pts | Close to reported | Model base is lower than live reported because current margin strength is not being treated as a permanent through-cycle outcome. It normalizes product-mix noise and avoids overreacting to quarter-specific launch costs. |
Ratios + trends
Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+2.0%
Gross margin
45.5%
Operating margin
31.4%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+0.9 pts
EBITDA margin
34.5%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+1.0 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+5.0%
Net margin
25.4%
FCF margin
25.5%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+0.2 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+2.8%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$67.0B
Total debt
$125.2B
Net cash / (debt)
Net debt $58.2B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net debt 14.9% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (+0.6 pts)
83.7%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
14.1 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.2x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.9x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.0x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (-0.0 pts)
4.0%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (-0.1 pts)
13.5%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.3x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.5x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
15.4%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.1x
Financial diagnostics
Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.
Revenue momentum
Stable+2.0% latest 1Y growth
vs +0.1% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Stable31.4% latest margin
+88 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Stable25.5% latest FCF margin
+19 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StableNet debt 14.9% of revenue
vs Net debt 15.2% of revenue prior FY
Thesis scorecard
Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.
Growth
ModerateGrowth is steadier than exceptional and still tied to hardware cycle timing.
Profitability
StrongServices mix and premium positioning support strong margins.
Balance sheet
ModerateNet debt reflects capital returns, though cash generation remains very strong.
Valuation
ModerateThe franchise deserves a premium, but upside remains relatively balanced.
Execution / Resilience
StrongThe ecosystem and installed base continue to anchor resilience.
Key drivers
Services mix and installed-base monetization continue to support cash generation quality.
Brand strength and customer retention still provide a premium margin structure.
Capital returns remain an important part of the valuation floor.
Key risks
A slower replacement cycle can weigh on revenue growth for longer than the market expects.
Regulatory changes around platform economics could pressure higher-margin services revenue.
Hardware innovation cycles may prove less catalytic than prior product refresh periods.
What would change our view
A stronger services growth trajectory would improve our view on the earnings mix.
A materially weaker device cycle would lower confidence in the current base case.
Clearer evidence of a new product-led demand cycle would shift the rating more positively.
Near-term catalysts
Upcoming device-cycle checks and services momentum remain the main near-term catalysts.
Capital return updates can matter meaningfully for the downside floor in a balanced rating setup.
Any new product or ecosystem adoption signal could influence the market's growth narrative.
What we are watching
Whether services growth can continue to offset a slower hardware replacement cycle.
How regulators shape platform economics around higher-margin ecosystem revenue streams.
Any evidence that customer upgrade intent is improving ahead of the next major cycle.
Coverage metadata
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 15, 2026.
Report updated
Mar 15, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
Reiterated
Mar 15, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Mar 15, 2026
Analyst note
Focus remains on services mix resilience, replacement timing, and the durability of capital returns.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Coverage timeline
Timeline events show published note events and the rating that followed each event. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 15, 2026
Maintained Hold as services resilience offset a still-balanced device outlook.
Jan 22, 2026
Kept Hold with upside and regulatory risk still broadly balanced.
Dec 8, 2025
Initiated coverage with a balanced stance on franchise quality versus valuation.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$235
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$212
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$185
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Why this rating
The stock is currently being evaluated against $302 versus a base-case fair value of $212, implying -29.9 downside. That supports a Sell rating with Medium confidence under the current model.
Stale scheduled quote
$302
Fair value
$212
Upside / Downside
-29.9 downside
Model signal / Confidence
Sell / Medium
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $205 to $218.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 31.4%, with +88 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning currently reflects net debt of ($58.2B), with capital returns remain a priority.
Valuation methods
| Method | Implied Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $210 | 45% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $218 | 35% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $205 | 20% |
Buy / Hold / Sell output
Current model recommendation
Sell
Price: $302
Fair value: $212
Implied upside / downside: -29.9 downside
Current published rating: Hold on Mar 15, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.
What changed section
2026-03-15
Services growth assumptions lifted after mixed device checks
Impact: +1.0% base case
2026-03-09
Adjusted iPhone replacement-cycle forecast lower
Impact: -0.8% revenue estimate
2026-03-04
Capital return outlook extended in model
Impact: Supportive for valuation floor