Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Apple remains a premium ecosystem franchise with resilient installed-base monetization, though near-term device cycles and regulatory scrutiny keep upside more balanced.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest price context, filing updates, refreshed normalized statements, and current model output, return to the company page.
Live reference context
These cards show the latest live reference data beside the published note. The written note and published rating remain anchored to the report date above.
Current model signal
Hold
Confidence
Medium
Current price
$206
Latest analyst action
Reiterated
Mar 15, 2026
Latest published rating
Hold
Mar 15, 2026
Fair value
$214
Upside / Downside
+4.1 upside
Current price data
AnalystScope curated current price
Live market-price fetch unavailable. Using the curated current price field.
Latest filing / report
4 filed Apr 3, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 1, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceReported fundamentals
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-27.
Last refreshed 3 Apr 2026, 21:01 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 09:01 UTC.
Analyst summary
Apple remains a premium ecosystem franchise with resilient installed-base monetization, though near-term device cycles and regulatory scrutiny keep upside more balanced.
Why this view
- Valuation sits close to fair value, keeping the view balanced.
- Operating trends show +6.4% revenue growth with 32.0% operating margin.
- Cash-flow quality shows 23.7% FCF margin.
- Balance sheet carries net debt of $36.0B, equal to 8.6% of revenue.
What to watch
Whether services growth can continue to offset a slower hardware replacement cycle.
Thesis scorecard
Lightweight qualitative scorecard across the core dimensions shaping the current investment view.
Growth
ModerateGrowth is steadier than exceptional and still tied to hardware cycle timing.
Profitability
StrongServices mix and premium positioning support strong margins.
Balance sheet
ModerateNet debt reflects capital returns, though cash generation remains very strong.
Valuation
ModerateThe franchise deserves a premium, but upside remains relatively balanced.
Execution / Resilience
StrongThe ecosystem and installed base continue to anchor resilience.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case value
$238
Stronger execution and valuation support than the base case.
Base case value
$214
This is the main recommendation anchor used on the public company page.
Bear case value
$187
Weaker assumptions or lower multiple support than the base case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts, and the note under each number explains why that level was used in the base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
5.0%
±0.5% => ±$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest normalized FY revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Services mix and installed-base monetization continue to support cash generation quality.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
±0.5% => ±$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 5.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Apple Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.0%
±0.5% => ∓$14/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Capital returns remain a priority
Operating Margin (Year 5)
31.0%
±100 bps => ±$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's normalized operating margin (32.0%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes product-mix noise and avoids overreacting to quarter-specific launch costs.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model inputs vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the live reported fundamentals versus the latest normalized annual inputs still used in the current public analysis model.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-27.
Last refreshed 3 Apr 2026, 21:01 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 09:01 UTC.
Normalization impact on the thesis
The Apple normalization approach smooths cycle volatility and places more emphasis on durable ecosystem cash generation than on any single reported hardware quarter.
| Metric | Reported | Status | Model input | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $416.2B | Live reported | $416.2B +6.4% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths hardware cycle timing and leans on a steadier installed-base monetization view. | Model / normalized |
| Operating Margin | 32.0% | Live reported | 32.0% +49 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes product-mix noise and avoids overreacting to quarter-specific launch costs. | Model / normalized |
| FCF (TTM) | $98.8B | Live reported | $98.6B 23.7% margin Adjustment: FCF input strips temporary working-capital and supplier-payment timing effects. | Model / normalized |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($43.2B) | Live reported | ($36.0B) Capital returns remain a priority Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment reflects cash generation strength while retaining a conservative debt view. | Model / normalized |
Why this rating
Shares currently trade at $206 versus a base-case fair value of $214, implying +4.1 upside. That supports a Hold rating with Medium confidence under the current model.
Fair value $214 vs. current $206 (+4.1 upside).
Current price
$206
Fair value
$214
Upside / Downside
+4.1 upside
Model signal / Confidence
Hold / Medium
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $208 to $223.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 32.0%, with +49 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning currently reflects net debt of ($36.0B), with capital returns remain a priority.
Valuation breakdown
| Method name | Implied value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $208 | 45% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $218 | 35% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $223 | 20% |
Key drivers
Services mix and installed-base monetization continue to support cash generation quality.
Brand strength and customer retention still provide a premium margin structure.
Capital returns remain an important part of the valuation floor.
Key risks
A slower replacement cycle can weigh on revenue growth for longer than the market expects.
Regulatory changes around platform economics could pressure higher-margin services revenue.
Hardware innovation cycles may prove less catalytic than prior product refresh periods.
What would change our view
A stronger services growth trajectory would improve our view on the earnings mix.
A materially weaker device cycle would lower confidence in the current base case.
Clearer evidence of a new product-led demand cycle would shift the rating more positively.
Near-term catalysts
Upcoming device-cycle checks and services momentum remain the main near-term catalysts.
Capital return updates can matter meaningfully for the downside floor in a balanced rating setup.
Any new product or ecosystem adoption signal could influence the market's growth narrative.
What we are watching
Whether services growth can continue to offset a slower hardware replacement cycle.
How regulators shape platform economics around higher-margin ecosystem revenue streams.
Any evidence that customer upgrade intent is improving ahead of the next major cycle.
Coverage metadata
Last updated
Mar 15, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest analyst action
Reiterated
Mar 15, 2026
Latest published rating
Hold
Mar 15, 2026
Analyst note
Focus remains on services mix resilience, replacement timing, and the durability of capital returns.
Current price source
AnalystScope curated current price
Live market-price fetch unavailable. Using the curated current price field.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-27.
Last refreshed 3 Apr 2026, 21:01 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 09:01 UTC.
Latest filing source
SEC EDGAR submissions API
4 filed Apr 3, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 1, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceCoverage timeline
Timeline entries reflect published analyst actions and ratings. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 15, 2026
Maintained Hold as services resilience offset a still-balanced device outlook.
Jan 22, 2026
Kept Hold with upside and regulatory risk still broadly balanced.
Dec 8, 2025
Initiated coverage with a balanced stance on franchise quality versus valuation.