Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Apple remains a premium ecosystem franchise with resilient installed-base monetization, though near-term device cycles and regulatory scrutiny keep upside more balanced.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Sell signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $302 versus $212 fair value, implying -29.9 downside.
Current workspace signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$302
Fair value
$212
-29.9 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed May 29, 2026 | Reporting period May 27, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-27.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth is steadier than exceptional and still tied to hardware cycle timing.
Profitability
StrongServices mix and premium positioning support strong margins.
Balance sheet
ModerateNet debt reflects capital returns, though cash generation remains very strong.
Valuation
ModerateThe franchise deserves a premium, but upside remains relatively balanced.
Execution / Resilience
StrongThe ecosystem and installed base continue to anchor resilience.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$235
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$212
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$185
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
5.0%
±0.5% => ±$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Services mix and installed-base monetization continue to support cash generation quality.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
±0.5% => ±$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 5.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Apple Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.0%
±0.5% => ∓$14/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Capital returns remain a priority
Operating Margin (Year 5)
31.0%
±100 bps => ±$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (31.4%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes product-mix noise and avoids overreacting to quarter-specific launch costs.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-27.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
The Apple normalization approach smooths cycle volatility and places more emphasis on durable ecosystem cash generation than on any single reported hardware quarter.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $416.2B | Live reported | $391.2B +2.0% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths hardware cycle timing and leans on a steadier installed-base monetization view. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 32.0% | Live reported | 31.4% +88 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes product-mix noise and avoids overreacting to quarter-specific launch costs. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $98.8B | Live reported | $99.8B 25.5% margin Adjustment: FCF input strips temporary working-capital and supplier-payment timing effects. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($37.1B) | Live reported | ($58.2B) Capital returns remain a priority Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment reflects cash generation strength while retaining a conservative debt view. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as Reiterated. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $302 versus a base-case fair value of $212, implying -29.9 downside.
Fair value $212 vs. current $302 (-29.9 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $205 to $218.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 31.4%, with +88 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($58.2B), with capital returns remain a priority.
Key drivers
Services mix and installed-base monetization continue to support cash generation quality.
Brand strength and customer retention still provide a premium margin structure.
Capital returns remain an important part of the valuation floor.
Key risks
A slower replacement cycle can weigh on revenue growth for longer than the market expects.
Regulatory changes around platform economics could pressure higher-margin services revenue.
Hardware innovation cycles may prove less catalytic than prior product refresh periods.
What would change our view
A stronger services growth trajectory would improve our view on the earnings mix.
A materially weaker device cycle would lower confidence in the current base case.
Clearer evidence of a new product-led demand cycle would shift the rating more positively.
Near-term catalysts
Upcoming device-cycle checks and services momentum remain the main near-term catalysts.
Capital return updates can matter meaningfully for the downside floor in a balanced rating setup.
Any new product or ecosystem adoption signal could influence the market's growth narrative.
What we are watching
Whether services growth can continue to offset a slower hardware replacement cycle.
How regulators shape platform economics around higher-margin ecosystem revenue streams.
Any evidence that customer upgrade intent is improving ahead of the next major cycle.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 15, 2026.
Report updated
Mar 15, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
Reiterated
Published Mar 15, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Mar 15, 2026
Analyst note
Focus remains on services mix resilience, replacement timing, and the durability of capital returns.
What changed in the report
Mar 15, 2026
Services growth assumptions lifted after mixed device checks
Impact: +1.0% base case
Mar 9, 2026
Adjusted iPhone replacement-cycle forecast lower
Impact: -0.8% revenue estimate
Mar 4, 2026
Capital return outlook extended in model
Impact: Supportive for valuation floor
Report timeline
Mar 15, 2026
Maintained Hold as services resilience offset a still-balanced device outlook.
Jan 22, 2026
Kept Hold with upside and regulatory risk still broadly balanced.
Dec 8, 2025
Initiated coverage with a balanced stance on franchise quality versus valuation.