NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NVIDIA continues to lead accelerated compute demand with sustained pricing power and superior software lock-in, though valuation embeds elevated growth durability assumptions.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest price context, filing updates, refreshed normalized statements, and current model output, return to the company page.
Live reference context
These cards show the latest live reference data beside the published note. The written note and published rating remain anchored to the report date above.
Current model signal
Buy
Confidence
Medium
Current price
$177
Latest analyst action
Downgraded
Mar 12, 2026
Latest published rating
Hold
Mar 12, 2026
Fair value
$864
Upside / Downside
+386.9 upside
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Current price data
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC.
Latest filing / report
SCHEDULE 13G/A filed Mar 26, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 3, 2026, 11:28 PM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC.
Open filing sourceReported fundamentals
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-01-25.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Analyst summary
NVIDIA continues to lead accelerated compute demand with sustained pricing power and superior software lock-in, though valuation embeds elevated growth durability assumptions.
Why this view
- Valuation implies 386.9% upside to fair value.
- Operating trends show +114.3% revenue growth with 62.4% operating margin.
- Cash-flow quality shows 46.6% FCF margin.
- Balance sheet remains net cash positive at $34.7B, equal to 26.6% of revenue.
What to watch
Whether hyperscaler demand remains broad enough to avoid a sharper digestion phase.
Thesis scorecard
Lightweight qualitative scorecard across the core dimensions shaping the current investment view.
Growth
StrongAI infrastructure demand still supports exceptional top-line momentum.
Profitability
StrongGross margin and cash conversion remain well ahead of peers.
Balance sheet
StrongNet cash positioning supports the current investment cycle.
Valuation
WeakCurrent multiples leave less room for any demand or execution reset.
Execution / Resilience
StrongPlatform leadership and ecosystem lock-in continue to support execution.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case value
$1,015
Stronger execution and valuation support than the base case.
Base case value
$864
This is the main recommendation anchor used on the public company page.
Bear case value
$745
Weaker assumptions or lower multiple support than the base case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts, and the note under each number explains why that level was used in the base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
24.0%
±2.0% => ±$70/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest normalized FY revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Accelerated compute demand remains supported by hyperscaler and enterprise AI build-outs.
Terminal Growth
3.5%
±0.5% => ±$40/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.5%, it sits well below the 24.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For NVIDIA Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
9.0%
±0.5% => ∓$46/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash positive
Operating Margin (Year 5)
49.0%
±100 bps => ±$19/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps margins strong but below today's normalized operating margin (62.4%), so the model does not treat current conditions as a permanent peak. Margin input smooths mix shifts and launch-related cost swings across the cycle.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model inputs vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the live reported fundamentals versus the latest normalized annual inputs still used in the current public analysis model.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-01-25.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Normalization impact on the thesis
These adjustments reduce one-off demand and cash-flow distortion, which keeps the NVIDIA thesis focused on durable platform economics rather than peak-cycle noise.
| Metric | Reported | Status | Model input | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $215.9B | Live reported | $130.5B +114.3% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue tempers hyperscaler order lumpiness and near-term digestion risk. | Model / normalized |
| Operating Margin | 60.4% | Live reported | 62.4% +835 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input smooths mix shifts and launch-related cost swings across the cycle. | Model / normalized |
| FCF (TTM) | $96.7B | Live reported | $60.8B 46.6% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up inventory, receivables, and supplier-timing volatility. | Model / normalized |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $2.1B | Live reported | $34.7B Net cash positive Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment nets cash against debt conservatively without assuming excess cash is fully distributable. | Model / normalized |
Why this rating
Shares currently trade at $177 versus a base-case fair value of $864, implying +386.9 upside. That supports a Buy rating with Medium confidence under the current model.
Fair value $864 vs. current $177 (+386.9 upside).
Current price
$177
Fair value
$864
Upside / Downside
+386.9 upside
Model signal / Confidence
Buy / Medium
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods show a wider range from $779 to $965, which tempers conviction.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 62.4%, with +835 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning remains net cash positive at $34.7B, with net cash positive.
Valuation breakdown
| Method name | Implied value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $779 | 45% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $915 | 35% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $965 | 20% |
Key drivers
Accelerated compute demand remains supported by hyperscaler and enterprise AI build-outs.
Software and ecosystem lock-in reinforce pricing power relative to peers.
Very strong profitability gives management room to absorb supply and product transition cycles.
Key risks
Demand normalization after the current AI capacity cycle could compress expectations quickly.
Customer concentration leaves results sensitive to hyperscaler digestion periods.
Valuation leaves limited room for execution misses or lower multiple support.
What would change our view
Evidence of more durable non-hyperscaler AI demand would strengthen our confidence.
A sharper order digestion period or pricing pressure would likely weaken the rating.
Sustained margin resilience through product transitions would support a more constructive stance.
Near-term catalysts
Datacenter demand commentary and order visibility remain the most immediate stock-moving inputs.
New product transition timing can influence both margin expectations and confidence in the upside case.
Supply-chain normalization could affect delivery cadence and near-term revenue conversion.
What we are watching
Whether hyperscaler demand remains broad enough to avoid a sharper digestion phase.
How pricing holds as customer purchasing patterns mature beyond the first AI build-out wave.
Any change in competitive intensity that narrows ecosystem or margin advantages.
Coverage metadata
Last updated
Mar 12, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest analyst action
Downgraded
Mar 12, 2026
Latest published rating
Hold
Mar 12, 2026
Analyst note
Watching demand normalization, supply discipline, and valuation sensitivity versus continued AI spending.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Current price source
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-01-25.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Latest filing source
SEC EDGAR submissions API
SCHEDULE 13G/A filed Mar 26, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 3, 2026, 11:28 PM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC.
Open filing sourceCoverage timeline
Timeline entries reflect published analyst actions and ratings. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 12, 2026
Shifted to Hold as valuation left less room for continued upside.
Jan 28, 2026
Kept Buy on sustained AI infrastructure demand and margin leadership.
Dec 10, 2025
Started coverage with a Buy view on accelerating compute demand.