NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NVIDIA continues to lead accelerated compute demand with sustained pricing power and superior software lock-in, though valuation embeds elevated growth durability assumptions.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Sell signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $184 versus $88 fair value, implying -52.1 downside.
Current workspace signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$184
Fair value
$88
-52.1 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Apr 10, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC. Fresh through Apr 11, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed Jun 5, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 3, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-01-25.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
StrongAI infrastructure demand still supports exceptional top-line momentum.
Profitability
StrongGross margin and cash conversion remain well ahead of peers.
Balance sheet
StrongNet cash positioning supports the current investment cycle.
Valuation
WeakCurrent multiples leave less room for any demand or execution reset.
Execution / Resilience
StrongPlatform leadership and ecosystem lock-in continue to support execution.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$104
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$88
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$76
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support remain supportive in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
24.0%
±2.0% => ±$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Accelerated compute demand remains supported by hyperscaler and enterprise AI build-outs.
Terminal Growth
3.5%
±0.5% => ±$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.5%, it sits well below the 24.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For NVIDIA Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
9.0%
±0.5% => ∓$4.6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash positive
Operating Margin (Year 5)
49.0%
±100 bps => ±$1.9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps margins strong but below today's model-base operating margin (56.4%), so the model does not treat current conditions as a permanent peak. Margin input smooths mix shifts and launch-related cost swings across the cycle.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-01-25.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
These adjustments reduce one-off demand and cash-flow distortion, which keeps the NVIDIA thesis focused on durable platform economics rather than peak-cycle noise.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $215.9B | Live reported | $126.5B +83.9% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue tempers hyperscaler order lumpiness and near-term digestion risk. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 60.4% | Live reported | 56.4% +709 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input smooths mix shifts and launch-related cost swings across the cycle. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $96.7B | Live reported | $68.0B 53.8% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up inventory, receivables, and supplier-timing volatility. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $4.8B | Live reported | $21.1B Net cash positive Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment nets cash against debt conservatively without assuming excess cash is fully distributable. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as Downgraded. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $184 versus a base-case fair value of $88, implying -52.1 downside.
Fair value $88 vs. current $184 (-52.1 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods remain directionally aligned, with a moderate range from $84 to $92.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 56.4%, with +709 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is $21.1B, with net cash positive.
Key drivers
Accelerated compute demand remains supported by hyperscaler and enterprise AI build-outs.
Software and ecosystem lock-in reinforce pricing power relative to peers.
Very strong profitability gives management room to absorb supply and product transition cycles.
Key risks
Demand normalization after the current AI capacity cycle could compress expectations quickly.
Customer concentration leaves results sensitive to hyperscaler digestion periods.
Valuation leaves limited room for execution misses or lower multiple support.
What would change our view
Evidence of more durable non-hyperscaler AI demand would strengthen our confidence.
A sharper order digestion period or pricing pressure would likely weaken the rating.
Sustained margin resilience through product transitions would support a more constructive stance.
Near-term catalysts
Datacenter demand commentary and order visibility remain the most immediate stock-moving inputs.
New product transition timing can influence both margin expectations and confidence in the upside case.
Supply-chain normalization could affect delivery cadence and near-term revenue conversion.
What we are watching
Whether hyperscaler demand remains broad enough to avoid a sharper digestion phase.
How pricing holds as customer purchasing patterns mature beyond the first AI build-out wave.
Any change in competitive intensity that narrows ecosystem or margin advantages.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 12, 2026.
Report updated
Mar 12, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
Downgraded
Published Mar 12, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Mar 12, 2026
Analyst note
Watching demand normalization, supply discipline, and valuation sensitivity versus continued AI spending.
What changed in the report
Mar 12, 2026
Street estimates revised up after hyperscaler commentary
Impact: +3.0% base case
Mar 8, 2026
Supply constraints eased for networking components
Impact: +1.2% gross margin
Mar 1, 2026
Higher valuation multiple sensitivity applied
Impact: Increased downside scenario
Report timeline
Mar 12, 2026
Shifted to Hold as valuation left less room for continued upside.
Jan 28, 2026
Kept Buy on sustained AI infrastructure demand and margin leadership.
Dec 10, 2025
Started coverage with a Buy view on accelerating compute demand.