AnalystScope equity researchCurrent company view

NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

Information Technology / Semiconductors / Santa Clara, CA

View printable snapshot

AnalystScope signal

Sell

Scheduled quote

$203

Base fair value

$88

Bear / base / bull

$76 / $88 / $104

Upside / downside

-56.6 downside

Confidence

Medium

Research updated Mar 12, 2026

Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.

Informational research only. Not personalized investment advice.

Model vs published view

Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.

Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.

Investment summary

Current view and thesis

NVIDIA continues to lead accelerated compute demand with sustained pricing power and superior software lock-in, though valuation embeds elevated growth durability assumptions.

Fair value $88 vs. current $203 (-56.6 downside). Current base fair value is $88 versus $203, implying -56.6 downside.

Key drivers

Accelerated compute demand remains supported by hyperscaler and enterprise AI build-outs.

Software and ecosystem lock-in reinforce pricing power relative to peers.

Very strong profitability gives management room to absorb supply and product transition cycles.

Key risks

Demand normalization after the current AI capacity cycle could compress expectations quickly.

Customer concentration leaves results sensitive to hyperscaler digestion periods.

Valuation leaves limited room for execution misses or lower multiple support.

What would change the view

Evidence of more durable non-hyperscaler AI demand would strengthen our confidence.

A sharper order digestion period or pricing pressure would likely weaken the rating.

Sustained margin resilience through product transitions would support a more constructive stance.

Valuation

Price, range, and method support

Base case $88 / -56.6 downside / medium confidence

Price vs fair value

-56.7%

Model-implied return

Scheduled quote

$203

Fair value

$88

Valuation method stack

Weighted fair value $88

Published method weights

DCF (Base)

$87 | 45%

NTM P/E Multiple

$92 | 35%

EV/EBITDA Cross-check

$84 | 20%

Case / method	Value	Weight / support
DCF (Base)	$87	45%
NTM P/E Multiple	$92	35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check	$84	20%
Bear case	$76	Supportive
Base case	$88	Supportive
Bull case	$104	Mixed

Fundamental analysis

Reported evidence and normalized model base

Normalized annual basis: FY2025

Download reported financials CSV Download normalized financials CSV

Normalized figures are AnalystScope's annual valuation model base.

Normalized metric	Latest value	Growth / margin context
Revenue	$126.5B	+83.9% YoY
Operating income	$71.3B	56.4% margin
Net income	$62.1B	EPS proxy $2.16
Free cash flow	$68.0B	53.8% margin
EBITDA	$75.5B	59.7% margin
Net cash / (debt)	$21.1B	+16.7% of revenue

Metric	Reported	AnalystScope normalized	Basis note
Revenue (TTM)	$215.9B	$126.5B	Model revenue tempers hyperscaler order lumpiness and near-term digestion risk.
Operating Margin	60.4%	56.4%	Margin input smooths mix shifts and launch-related cost swings across the cycle.
FCF (TTM)	$96.7B	$68.0B	FCF input cleans up inventory, receivables, and supplier-timing volatility.
Net Cash / (Debt)	$4.8B	$21.1B	Balance-sheet treatment nets cash against debt conservatively without assuming excess cash is fully distributable.

Fundamental snapshot

FY2025

Normalized annual model base

Revenue

+83.9% YoY

$126.5B

Op. margin

+7.1% pts

56.4%

FCF margin

+1.7% pts

53.8%

Revenue + margin trend

Annual normalized model-base history.

Revenue

2023

2024

2025

Operating margin

2023

2024

2025

AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.

Income statement

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	$27.0B	$68.8B	$126.5B
Gross Profit	$15.1B	$47.5B	$93.6B
Operating Income	$4.6B	$33.9B	$71.3B
EBITDA	$5.4B	$36.0B	$75.5B
Net Income	$4.3B	$29.0B	$62.1B

Balance sheet

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & Investments	$13.3B	$24.8B	$35.0B
Total Debt	$10.6B	$14.7B	$13.9B
Net Cash / (Debt)	$2.7B	$10.1B	$21.1B
Total Assets	$41.0B	$86.0B	$122.0B
Total Liabilities	$18.9B	$34.8B	$46.6B
Shareholders' Equity	$22.1B	$51.2B	$75.4B

Cash flow

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	$5.7B	$40.0B	$77.2B
Depreciation & Amortization	$800.0M	$2.1B	$4.2B
Capital Expenditures	($1.4B)	($4.2B)	($9.2B)
Free Cash Flow	$4.3B	$35.8B	$68.0B

Model assumptions

Base-case inputs and sensitivity

Published AnalystScope assumptions; private edits do not change this base case.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

24.0%

±2.0% => ±$7/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Accelerated compute demand remains supported by hyperscaler and enterprise AI build-outs.

Terminal Growth

3.5%

±0.5% => ±$4/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.5%, it sits well below the 24.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For NVIDIA Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.

WACC

9.0%

±0.5% => ∓$4.6/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash positive

Operating Margin (Year 5)

49.0%

±100 bps => ±$1.9/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps margins strong but below today's model-base operating margin (56.4%), so the model does not treat current conditions as a permanent peak. Margin input smooths mix shifts and launch-related cost swings across the cycle.

Sensitivity drivers

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

24.0%

±2.0% => ±$7/sh

Terminal Growth

3.5%

±0.5% => ±$4/sh

WACC

9.0%

±0.5% => ∓$4.6/sh

Operating Margin (Year 5)

49.0%

±100 bps => ±$1.9/sh

Confidence

Medium

Method outputs show moderate dispersion of +9.1%.

Why the model view could be wrong

Demand normalization after the current AI capacity cycle could compress expectations quickly.

Customer concentration leaves results sensitive to hyperscaler digestion periods.

Valuation leaves limited room for execution misses or lower multiple support.

Private analysis

Test your own assumptions in Scenario Builder

Private scenarios remain separate from AnalystScope's published base case.

Open Scenario Builder

Private workspace

Scenario Builder

Private scenario sandbox

This is a private modelling layer, not the public AnalystScope base case or printable snapshot. It keeps the public base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates your scenario fair-value estimate immediately.

Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for NVDA. Base-case rationale remains in the public assumptions section above. Your scenario output reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the AnalystScope framework.

Editable assumptions

Adjust your scenario inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the public AnalystScope base case.

This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.

Matches the published AnalystScope base case.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

Public AnalystScope base case: 24.0% | ±2.0% => ±$7/sh

Allowed range: 18.0% to 30.0%

Terminal Growth

Public AnalystScope base case: 3.5% | ±0.5% => ±$4/sh

Allowed range: 2.0% to 5.0%

WACC

Public AnalystScope base case: 9.0% | ±0.5% => ∓$4.6/sh

Allowed range: 7.0% to 11.0%

Operating Margin (Year 5)

Public AnalystScope base case: 49.0% | ±100 bps => ±$1.9/sh

Allowed range: 41.0% to 57.0%

Saved private scenarios

Save up to 5 named scenarios for NVDA. These are your scenarios: they never overwrite the public AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.

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Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.

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Published base case

Fair value

$88

Upside / Downside

-56.6 downside

Model signal

Sell

Published base-case output

Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.

Fair value

$88

$0/sh vs published base case

Upside / Downside

-56.6 downside

+0.0 pts vs published base case

Model signal

Sell

Unchanged versus the published base case.

Method movement inside the scenario

This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.

Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.

Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.

3 of 3 methods support model-native repricingModel-native bridge

Method	Published base	Edited scenario	Delta	How it moved / main drivers
DCF (Base) DCF-style \| 45% weight	$87	$87	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style \| 35% weight	$92	$92	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple \| 20% weight	$84	$84	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
Weighted fair value Published framework result \| Published framework result	$88	$88	+$0/sh	Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way.

Published base case vs private scenarios

Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.

Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.

Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.

Scenario	Revenue CAGR (5Y)	Terminal Growth	WACC	Op. Margin (Y5)	Fair Value	Upside / Downside	Model Signal	Delta vs Base	Action
AnalystScope base case Published Official AnalystScope anchor row.	24.0%	3.5%	9.0%	49.0%	$88	-56.6 downside	Sell	Published anchor

Supporting research

Quality, normalization, and monitoring evidence

Annual model base: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025

Thesis scorecard

Growth

Strong

AI infrastructure demand still supports exceptional top-line momentum.

Profitability

Strong

Gross margin and cash conversion remain well ahead of peers.

Balance sheet

Strong

Net cash positioning supports the current investment cycle.

Valuation

Weak

Current multiples leave less room for any demand or execution reset.

Execution / Resilience

Strong

Platform leadership and ecosystem lock-in continue to support execution.

Current source status

Quote: Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.

Reported fundamentals: Fundamentals refreshed 21 Jul 2026, 01:32 UTC. Fresh through 21 Jul 2026, 13:32 UTC.

Latest filing: SCHEDULE 13G filed Jul 20, 2026. Filing refreshed Jul 21, 2026, 12:39 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 21, 2026, 12:39 PM UTC.

Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.

Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.

Operating and cash-flow trends

Model-base statements

Revenue growth (1Y)

+83.9%

Gross margin

74.0%

Operating margin

56.4%

Operating margin change vs prior FY

+7.1 pts

EBITDA margin

59.7%

EBITDA margin change vs prior FY

+7.4 pts

Operating income growth (1Y)

+110.3%

Net margin

49.1%

FCF margin

53.8%

FCF margin change vs prior FY

+1.7 pts

FCF growth (1Y)

+89.9%

Balance sheet quality

Model-base statements

Cash & investments

$35.0B

Total debt

$13.9B

Net cash / (debt)

Net cash $21.1B

Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue

Net cash 16.7% of revenue

Liabilities / assets

Stable

vs FY2024 (-2.3 pts)

38.2%

Cross-statement quality

Model-base statements

Gross-to-operating spread

17.6 pts

Operating cash flow / net income

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.1x)

1.2x

Operating cash flow / EBITDA

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.1x)

1.0x

Free cash flow / net income

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.1x)

1.1x

CapEx as % of revenue

Weakening

vs FY2024 (+1.2 pts)

7.3%

CapEx as % of operating cash flow

Stable

vs FY2024 (+1.4 pts)

11.9%

CapEx / D&A

Weakening

vs FY2024 (+0.2x)

2.2x

Cash & investments / total debt

Improving

vs FY2024 (+0.8x)

2.5x

Shareholders' equity as % of revenue

59.6%

Asset turnover

Improving

vs FY2024 (+0.2x)

1.0x

Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.

Adjustment focus

Large analyst adjustment

Income statement | Revenue (TTM) | -$89.4B / -41%

Revenue momentum

Weakening

+83.9% latest 1Y growth

vs +154.8% prior 1Y

Operating margin trend

Improving

56.4% latest margin

+709 bps vs prior FY

FCF margin trend

Improving

53.8% latest FCF margin

+172 bps vs prior FY

Balance-sheet posture

Stable

Net cash 16.7% of revenue

vs Net cash 14.7% of revenue prior FY

How to read this

Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.

This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.

Why the model base differs

These adjustments reduce one-off demand and cash-flow distortion, which keeps the NVIDIA thesis focused on durable platform economics rather than peak-cycle noise.

Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.

Metric	Model base	Live reported	Variance vs reported	Adjustment size	Why lower / higher?
Revenue (TTM)	$126.5B FY2025 model base	$215.9B Live reported TTM	-$89.4B / -41%	Large analyst adjustment	Model base is lower than live reported because the thesis does not carry the current revenue run-rate straight into the durable operating base. It tempers hyperscaler order lumpiness and near-term digestion risk.
FCF (TTM)	$68.0B FY2025 model base	$96.7B Live reported TTM	-$28.7B / -30%	Large analyst adjustment	Model base is lower than live reported because cash generation is being smoothed for timing effects rather than taken at face value. It cleans up inventory, receivables, and supplier-timing volatility.
Net Cash / (Debt)	$21.1B FY2025 model base	$4.8B Live reported balance sheet	+$16.3B / +8% of revenue	Moderate adjustment	Model base is less conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure because the latest reported balance does not appear fully representative. It nets cash against debt conservatively without assuming excess cash is fully distributable.
Operating Margin	56.4% FY2025 model base	60.4% Live reported margin	-4.0 pts	Moderate adjustment	Model base is lower than live reported because current margin strength is not being treated as a permanent through-cycle outcome. It smooths mix shifts and launch-related cost swings across the cycle.

Near-term catalysts

Datacenter demand commentary and order visibility remain the most immediate stock-moving inputs.

New product transition timing can influence both margin expectations and confidence in the upside case.

Supply-chain normalization could affect delivery cadence and near-term revenue conversion.

What we are watching

Whether hyperscaler demand remains broad enough to avoid a sharper digestion phase.

How pricing holds as customer purchasing patterns mature beyond the first AI build-out wave.

Any change in competitive intensity that narrows ecosystem or margin advantages.

Date	Event	Published rating	Note
Mar 12, 2026	Downgraded	Hold	Shifted to Hold as valuation left less room for continued upside.
Jan 28, 2026	Reiterated	Buy	Kept Buy on sustained AI infrastructure demand and margin leadership.
Dec 10, 2025	New	Buy	Started coverage with a Buy view on accelerating compute demand.