AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
AMD remains a credible data-center and AI challenger with improving margin structure, though valuation still requires steady execution on both CPU and accelerator share gains.
Live company workspace
This page is the current view. It combines the latest price context, filing status, reported fundamentals, refreshed normalized statements, and the current model output. Published actions and ratings stay here as reference, while the report page preserves the point-in-time note.
Current model signal
Buy
Confidence: Low
Implied return: +45.0 upside
Fair value $244 vs. current $168 (+45.0 upside).
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Ticker
AMD
Model signal
Buy
Confidence
Low
Fair value
$244
Upside / Downside
+45.0 upside
Jump to section
Live investment view
Base case stance: Buy with low confidence as shares trade at $168 versus $244 fair value, implying +45.0 upside. This workspace updates with the latest live inputs, while the published report remains a point-in-time note.
Current model signal
Buy
Latest analyst action
Reiterated
Published Mar 18, 2026
Latest published rating
Hold
Published Mar 18, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Current price data
AnalystScope curated current price
Live market-price fetch unavailable. Using the curated current price field.
Latest filing / report
ARS filed Mar 27, 2026 | Reporting period Dec 27, 2025
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:32 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 3:32 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceReported fundamentals
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-27.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Current model signal
Buy
Confidence
Low
Current price
$168
Fair value
$244
Upside / Downside
+45.0 upside
Top drivers
Server CPU share gains remain the core driver of medium-term earnings power.
AI accelerator traction offers upside if deployment breadth expands beyond the initial customer set.
Top risks
AI accelerator adoption may prove slower or narrower than current expectations imply.
Competitive intensity can pressure both pricing and margin durability across product cycles.
Sector / Industry
Information Technology
Semiconductors
Headquarters
Santa Clara, CA
Market Cap
$295B
Current / Fair Value
$168 / $244
Upside / Downside
+45.0 upside
Data status
Last updated: Mar 20, 2026
Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.
Coverage is currently limited to ten companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, and NFLX.
Normalized financial summary
Curated normalized annual basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Revenue (Latest FY)
FY2025 | +34.1% vs prior FY
$34.6B
Operating Margin
+333 bps vs prior FY
10.7%
FCF (Latest FY)
19.4% margin | FY2025
$6.7B
Net Cash / (Debt)
Net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle
$7.4B
Key ratios
EV / NTM EBITDA
Sector 15.8x
22.6x
P / NTM EPS
Sector 24.1x
31.4x
ROIC
Sector 14.6%
15.2%
Rule of 40
Healthy
47%
Base-case assumptions
These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
16.0%
±1.5% => ±$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest normalized FY revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Server CPU share gains remain the core driver of medium-term earnings power.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 16.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
9.1%
±0.5% => ∓$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle
Operating Margin (Year 5)
26.0%
±100 bps => ±$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It assumes some expansion from today's normalized operating margin (10.7%), with mix, scale, and operating leverage doing the work over time. Margin input normalizes launch mix and avoids over-weighting peak quarter product profitability.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Scenario workbench
Analyst workbench
This is a local edited scenario, not the published AnalystScope base case or report view. It keeps the published base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates the fair-value estimate immediately.
Base-case rationale remains in the assumptions section above. This first slice uses the published sensitivities to estimate how the edited scenario changes fair value while the cross-check methods remain the published reference point.
Editable assumptions
Adjust the inputs within a reasonable range. Edits stay local to this browser session.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Published base case: 16.0% | ±1.5% => ±$12/sh
Range: 10.0% to 22.0%
Terminal Growth
Published base case: 3.0% | ±0.5% => ±$9/sh
Range: 1.5% to 4.5%
WACC
Published base case: 9.1% | ±0.5% => ∓$11/sh
Range: 7.1% to 11.1%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Published base case: 26.0% | ±100 bps => ±$6/sh
Range: 18.0% to 34.0%
Published base case
Fair value
$244
Upside / Downside
+45.0 upside
Model signal
Buy
Edited scenario
Fair value
$244
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
+45.2 upside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Buy
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Normalized financial statements
Curated normalized annual statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.7B | $25.8B | $34.6B |
| Gross Profit | $10.5B | $12.7B | $17.1B |
| Operating Income | $400.0M | $1.9B | $3.7B |
| EBITDA | $1.0B | $2.6B | $4.8B |
| Net Income | $900.0M | $1.7B | $4.3B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $5.8B | $5.1B | $10.6B |
| Total Debt | $2.5B | $1.7B | $3.2B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $3.3B | $3.4B | $7.4B |
| Total Assets | $67.9B | $69.2B | $76.9B |
| Total Liabilities | $12.0B | $11.6B | $13.9B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $55.9B | $57.6B | $63.0B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.7B | $3.0B | $7.7B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $600.0M | $700.0M | $1.1B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($500.0M) | ($600.0M) | ($1.0B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $2.4B | $6.7B |
Model inputs vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the live reported fundamentals versus the latest normalized annual inputs still used in the current public analysis model.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-27.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Normalization impact on the thesis
AMD's normalization approach smooths product-cycle volatility and puts more weight on durable data-center share gains than on quarter-specific launch noise.
Statement basis diagnostics
Latest normalized basis FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.
Income statement
Revenue
FY2025 $34.6B vs reported TTM $34.6B (-0.1%)
Operating margin
FY2025 10.7% vs reported 10.7% (+0.0 pts)
Cash flow
Free cash flow
FY2025 $6.7B vs reported TTM $6.7B (-0.5%)
FCF margin
FY2025 19.4% vs reported 19.4% (-0.1 pts)
Balance sheet
Net cash / (debt)
FY2025 Net cash $7.4B vs reported Net cash $2.3B
| Metric | Reported | Status | Model input | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $34.6B | Live reported | $34.6B +34.1% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths product-transition timing and the pace of server and AI share gains. | Model / normalized |
| Operating Margin | 10.7% | Live reported | 10.7% +333 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes launch mix and avoids over-weighting peak quarter product profitability. | Model / normalized |
| FCF (TTM) | $6.7B | Live reported | $6.7B 19.4% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up inventory and receivables timing through the current product cycle. | Model / normalized |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $2.3B | Live reported | $7.4B Net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment retains a conservative cash view while still recognizing net cash. | Model / normalized |
Normalization review
AMD's normalization approach smooths product-cycle volatility and puts more weight on durable data-center share gains than on quarter-specific launch noise.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable drift first.
| Metric | Latest normalized basis | Latest live reported | Delta / variance | Materiality | Normalization rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Cash / (Debt) | $7.4B FY2025 normalized | $2.3B Live reported balance sheet | +$5.1B / +14.7% of revenue | High drift | Balance-sheet treatment retains a conservative cash view while still recognizing net cash. |
Operating Margin | 10.7% FY2025 normalized | 10.7% Live reported margin | -0.0 pts | In band | Margin input normalizes launch mix and avoids over-weighting peak quarter product profitability. |
Revenue (TTM) | $34.6B FY2025 normalized | $34.6B Live reported TTM | +$0.0 / +0.0% | In band | Model revenue smooths product-transition timing and the pace of server and AI share gains. |
FCF (TTM) | $6.7B FY2025 normalized | $6.7B Live reported TTM | +$0.0 / +0.0% | In band | FCF input cleans up inventory and receivables timing through the current product cycle. |
Ratios + trends
Normalized annual income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+34.1%
Gross margin
49.4%
Operating margin
10.7%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+3.3 pts
EBITDA margin
13.9%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+3.8 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+94.7%
Net margin
12.4%
FCF margin
19.4%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+10.1 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+179.2%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$10.6B
Total debt
$3.2B
Net cash / (debt)
Net cash $7.4B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net cash 21.4% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (+1.3 pts)
18.1%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
38.7 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
1.8x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (+0.5x)
1.6x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
1.6x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+0.6 pts)
2.9%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (-7.0 pts)
13.0%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
0.9x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.3x)
3.3x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
182.1%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
0.4x
Financial diagnostics
Compact normalized-basis diagnostics for analyst triage.
Drift focus
High driftBalance sheet | Net Cash / (Debt) | +$5.1B / +14.7% of revenue
Revenue momentum
Improving+34.1% latest 1Y growth
vs +13.7% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Improving10.7% latest margin
+333 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Improving19.4% latest FCF margin
+1006 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StrengtheningNet cash 21.4% of revenue
vs Net cash 13.2% of revenue prior FY
Thesis scorecard
Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.
Growth
StrongServer and AI exposure continue to support a strong growth opportunity set.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are improving, but they still trail the strongest semiconductor peers.
Balance sheet
StrongNet cash keeps the balance sheet supportive during the investment cycle.
Valuation
ModerateThe setup is constructive, but the multiple still requires steady execution.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution has improved, though share-gain durability still needs to be proven across cycles.
Key drivers
Server CPU share gains remain the core driver of medium-term earnings power.
AI accelerator traction offers upside if deployment breadth expands beyond the initial customer set.
A cleaner mix shift toward data-center revenue continues to support margin improvement.
Key risks
AI accelerator adoption may prove slower or narrower than current expectations imply.
Competitive intensity can pressure both pricing and margin durability across product cycles.
Execution risk remains elevated when multiple large product ramps overlap.
What would change our view
Broader AI accelerator customer adoption would improve the current rating case.
A slower pace of server share gains would likely reduce confidence in the model.
Sustained margin improvement through the cycle would support a more constructive stance.
Near-term catalysts
Server CPU share-gain data points remain the clearest near-term catalyst for estimate revisions.
AI accelerator deployments and customer breadth can shift sentiment quickly.
Gross-margin commentary around product mix remains important for confidence.
What we are watching
Whether AI demand broadens enough to support a steadier accelerator contribution.
How much of current margin improvement is structural versus mix-driven.
Any sign that server share gains are plateauing before the model assumes.
Coverage metadata
Last updated
Mar 18, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest analyst action
Reiterated
Mar 18, 2026
Latest published rating
Hold
Mar 18, 2026
Analyst note
Watching server share gains, AI accelerator breadth, and the durability of margin improvement.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Current price source
AnalystScope curated current price
Live market-price fetch unavailable. Using the curated current price field.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-27.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Latest filing source
SEC EDGAR submissions API
ARS filed Mar 27, 2026 | Reporting period Dec 27, 2025
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:32 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 3:32 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceCoverage timeline
Timeline events show published analyst actions and ratings. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 18, 2026
Maintained Hold as better server execution remains balanced by elevated expectations.
Feb 5, 2026
Moved to Hold from a more cautious stance as server mix and execution improved.
Dec 9, 2025
Started coverage with a balanced view on share gains versus execution risk.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$291
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are supportive of the upside case.
Base case
$244
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$199
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support remain supportive in the bear case.
Why this rating
The stock currently trades at $168 versus a base-case fair value of $244, implying +45.0 upside. That supports a Buy rating with Low confidence under the current model.
Current price
$168
Fair value
$244
Upside / Downside
+45.0 upside
Model signal / Confidence
Buy / Low
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods show a wider range from $103 to $359, which tempers conviction.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 10.7%, with +333 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning remains net cash positive at $7.4B, with net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle.
Valuation methods
| Method | Implied Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $359 | 45% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $176 | 35% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $103 | 20% |
Buy / Hold / Sell output
Current model recommendation
Buy
Price: $168
Fair value: $244
Implied upside / downside: +45.0 upside
Latest published rating: Hold on Mar 18, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.
What changed section
2026-03-18
Raised server share-gain assumptions modestly
Impact: +0.9% fair value
2026-03-10
Maintained cautious AI accelerator adoption curve
Impact: Keeps rating at Hold
2026-03-04
Improved margin mix assumptions for data center
Impact: +40 bps operating margin