AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
AMD remains a credible data-center and AI challenger with improving margin structure, though valuation still requires steady execution on both CPU and accelerator share gains.
Live company workspace
This page is the active working surface. It combines the latest price context, filing status, reported fundamentals, refreshed model-base statements, current valuation output, and the scenario workbench. The report page stays separate as the published archival report.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 18, 2026.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence: Medium
Implied return: -60.3 downside
Fair value $178 vs. current $448 (-60.3 downside).
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live investment view
Base case stance: Sell with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $448 versus $178 fair value, implying -60.3 downside. This workspace updates with the latest daily scheduled quote and reported inputs, while the published report remains a point-in-time note.
Price basis warning
Current price-dependent output is using a stale scheduled quote. Fair value, upside / downside, and the model signal are still shown, but they should be read with caution until a fresher daily scheduled quote refresh is available.
Current model signal
Sell
Latest note event
Reiterated
Published Mar 18, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Mar 18, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Daily scheduled refresh
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:55 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:55 AM UTC.
Filing refreshed
144 filed Jun 2, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceFundamentals refreshed
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-27.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$448
Fair value
$178
Upside / Downside
-60.3 downside
Top drivers
Server CPU share gains remain the core driver of medium-term earnings power.
AI accelerator traction offers upside if deployment breadth expands beyond the initial customer set.
Top risks
AI accelerator adoption may prove slower or narrower than current expectations imply.
Competitive intensity can pressure both pricing and margin durability across product cycles.
Sector / Industry
Information Technology
Semiconductors
Headquarters
Santa Clara, CA
Market Cap
$295B
Current / Fair Value
$448 / $178
Upside / Downside
-60.3 downside
Coverage snapshot
Report updated: Apr 10, 2026
Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.
Coverage currently spans twenty-eight companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, NFLX, V, MA, WMT, PG, JNJ, ADBE, CSCO, TXN, COST, KO, HD, PEP, QCOM, INTU, MCD, ADP, ABT, and IBM.
Model-base financial summary
Current annual model-base range: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Revenue (Latest FY)
FY2025 | +21.9% vs prior FY
$28.9B
Operating Margin
+347 bps vs prior FY
24.6%
FCF (Latest FY)
11.8% margin | FY2025
$3.4B
Net Cash / (Debt)
Net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle
$3.1B
Key ratios
EV / NTM EBITDA
Sector 15.8x
22.6x
P / NTM EPS
Sector 24.1x
31.4x
ROIC
Sector 14.6%
15.2%
Rule of 40
Healthy
47%
Base-case assumptions
These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
16.0%
±1.5% => ±$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Server CPU share gains remain the core driver of medium-term earnings power.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 16.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
9.1%
±0.5% => ∓$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle
Operating Margin (Year 5)
26.0%
±100 bps => ±$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (24.6%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes launch mix and avoids over-weighting peak quarter product profitability.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Scenario workbench
Analyst workbench
This is a private working layer, not the published AnalystScope base case or report view. It keeps the published base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates the fair-value estimate immediately.
Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for AMD. Base-case rationale remains in the assumptions section above. Scenario output now reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the published AnalystScope framework.
Editable assumptions
Adjust the inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the published base case.
This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.
Matches the published AnalystScope base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Published base case: 16.0% | ±1.5% => ±$12/sh
Allowed range: 10.0% to 22.0%
Terminal Growth
Published base case: 3.0% | ±0.5% => ±$9/sh
Allowed range: 1.5% to 4.5%
WACC
Published base case: 9.1% | ±0.5% => ∓$11/sh
Allowed range: 7.1% to 11.1%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Published base case: 26.0% | ±100 bps => ±$6/sh
Allowed range: 18.0% to 34.0%
Private saved scenarios
Save up to 5 named scenarios for AMD. They never overwrite the published AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.
Checking private workspace session...
Private scenario note
Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.
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Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.
No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.
Published base case
Fair value
$178
Upside / Downside
-60.3 downside
Model signal
Sell
Published base-case output
Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.
Fair value
$178
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
-60.3 downside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Sell
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Method movement inside the scenario
This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.
Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.
Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.
| Method | Published base | Edited scenario | Delta | How it moved / main drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF (Base) DCF-style | 45% weight | $182 | $182 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style | 35% weight | $176 | $176 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple | 20% weight | $170 | $170 | -$0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Weighted fair value Published framework result | Published framework result | $178 | $178 | -$1/sh | Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way. |
Published base case vs private scenarios
Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.
Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.
Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR (5Y) | Terminal Growth | WACC | Op. Margin (Y5) | Fair Value | Upside / Downside | Model Signal | Delta vs Base | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AnalystScope base case PublishedOfficial AnalystScope anchor row. | 16.0% | 3.0% | 9.1% | 26.0% | $178 | -60.3 downside | Sell | Published anchor |
Model-base financial statements
AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.2B | $23.7B | $28.9B |
| Gross Profit | $11.1B | $12.3B | $15.4B |
| Operating Income | $4.1B | $5.0B | $7.1B |
| EBITDA | $4.7B | $5.7B | $8.0B |
| Net Income | $1.4B | $2.1B | $3.6B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $7.2B | $8.3B | $8.9B |
| Total Debt | $7.0B | $6.2B | $5.8B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $200.0M | $2.1B | $3.1B |
| Total Assets | $67.0B | $72.0B | $79.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $12.9B | $14.8B | $19.0B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $54.1B | $57.2B | $60.0B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.8B | $3.2B | $4.3B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $600.0M | $700.0M | $900.0M |
| Capital Expenditures | ($700.0M) | ($700.0M) | ($900.0M) |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.1B | $2.5B | $3.4B |
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-27.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
AMD's normalization approach smooths product-cycle volatility and puts more weight on durable data-center share gains than on quarter-specific launch noise.
Model-base diagnostics
Latest model base FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.
Income statement
Revenue
FY2025 $28.9B vs reported TTM $34.6B (-16.6%)
Operating margin
FY2025 24.6% vs reported 10.7% (+13.9 pts)
Cash flow
Free cash flow
FY2025 $3.4B vs reported TTM $6.7B (-49.5%)
FCF margin
FY2025 11.8% vs reported 19.4% (-7.7 pts)
Balance sheet
Net cash / (debt)
FY2025 Net cash $3.1B vs reported Net cash $2.4B
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $34.6B | Live reported | $28.9B +21.9% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths product-transition timing and the pace of server and AI share gains. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 10.7% | Live reported | 24.6% +347 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes launch mix and avoids over-weighting peak quarter product profitability. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $6.7B | Live reported | $3.4B 11.8% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up inventory and receivables timing through the current product cycle. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $2.4B | Live reported | $3.1B Net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment retains a conservative cash view while still recognizing net cash. | Model base |
Reported vs durable model base
How to read this
Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.
This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.
Why the model base differs
AMD's normalization approach smooths product-cycle volatility and puts more weight on durable data-center share gains than on quarter-specific launch noise.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.
| Metric | Model base | Live reported | Variance vs reported | Adjustment size | Why lower / higher? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF (TTM) | $3.4B FY2025 model base | $6.7B Live reported TTM | -$3.3B / -49% | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is lower than live reported because cash generation is being smoothed for timing effects rather than taken at face value. It cleans up inventory and receivables timing through the current product cycle. |
Revenue (TTM) | $28.9B FY2025 model base | $34.6B Live reported TTM | -$5.7B / -16% | Moderate adjustment | Model base is lower than live reported because the thesis does not carry the current revenue run-rate straight into the durable operating base. It smooths product-transition timing and the pace of server and AI share gains. |
Operating Margin | 24.6% FY2025 model base | 10.7% Live reported margin | +13.9 pts | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest reported margin pressure is the durable earnings base. It normalizes launch mix and avoids over-weighting peak quarter product profitability. |
Net Cash / (Debt) | $3.1B FY2025 model base | $2.4B Live reported balance sheet | +$700.0M / +2% of revenue | Close to reported | Model base is less conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure because the latest reported balance does not appear fully representative. It retains a conservative cash view while still recognizing net cash. |
Ratios + trends
Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+21.9%
Gross margin
53.3%
Operating margin
24.6%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+3.5 pts
EBITDA margin
27.7%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+3.6 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+42.0%
Net margin
12.5%
FCF margin
11.8%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+1.2 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+36.0%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$8.9B
Total debt
$5.8B
Net cash / (debt)
Net cash $3.1B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net cash 10.7% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (+3.5 pts)
24.1%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
28.7 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.3x)
1.2x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.5x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.2x)
0.9x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+0.2 pts)
3.1%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (-0.9 pts)
20.9%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
1.0x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.2x)
1.5x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
207.6%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.4x
Financial diagnostics
Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.
Adjustment focus
Large analyst adjustmentCash flow | FCF (TTM) | -$3.3B / -49%
Revenue momentum
Improving+21.9% latest 1Y growth
vs +6.8% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Improving24.6% latest margin
+347 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Improving11.8% latest FCF margin
+122 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StableNet cash 10.7% of revenue
vs Net cash 8.9% of revenue prior FY
Thesis scorecard
Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.
Growth
StrongServer and AI exposure continue to support a strong growth opportunity set.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are improving, but they still trail the strongest semiconductor peers.
Balance sheet
StrongNet cash keeps the balance sheet supportive during the investment cycle.
Valuation
ModerateThe setup is constructive, but the multiple still requires steady execution.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution has improved, though share-gain durability still needs to be proven across cycles.
Key drivers
Server CPU share gains remain the core driver of medium-term earnings power.
AI accelerator traction offers upside if deployment breadth expands beyond the initial customer set.
A cleaner mix shift toward data-center revenue continues to support margin improvement.
Key risks
AI accelerator adoption may prove slower or narrower than current expectations imply.
Competitive intensity can pressure both pricing and margin durability across product cycles.
Execution risk remains elevated when multiple large product ramps overlap.
What would change our view
Broader AI accelerator customer adoption would improve the current rating case.
A slower pace of server share gains would likely reduce confidence in the model.
Sustained margin improvement through the cycle would support a more constructive stance.
Near-term catalysts
Server CPU share-gain data points remain the clearest near-term catalyst for estimate revisions.
AI accelerator deployments and customer breadth can shift sentiment quickly.
Gross-margin commentary around product mix remains important for confidence.
What we are watching
Whether AI demand broadens enough to support a steadier accelerator contribution.
How much of current margin improvement is structural versus mix-driven.
Any sign that server share gains are plateauing before the model assumes.
Coverage metadata
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 18, 2026.
Report updated
Mar 18, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
Reiterated
Mar 18, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Mar 18, 2026
Analyst note
Watching server share gains, AI accelerator breadth, and the durability of margin improvement.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Coverage timeline
Timeline events show published note events and the rating that followed each event. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 18, 2026
Maintained Hold as better server execution remains balanced by elevated expectations.
Feb 5, 2026
Moved to Hold from a more cautious stance as server mix and execution improved.
Dec 9, 2025
Started coverage with a balanced view on share gains versus execution risk.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$212
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are supportive of the upside case.
Base case
$178
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$145
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support remain supportive in the bear case.
Why this rating
The stock is currently being evaluated against $448 versus a base-case fair value of $178, implying -60.3 downside. That supports a Sell rating with Medium confidence under the current model.
Stale scheduled quote
$448
Fair value
$178
Upside / Downside
-60.3 downside
Model signal / Confidence
Sell / Medium
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $170 to $182.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 24.6%, with +347 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning remains net cash positive at $3.1B, with net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle.
Valuation methods
| Method | Implied Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $182 | 45% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $176 | 35% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $170 | 20% |
Buy / Hold / Sell output
Current model recommendation
Sell
Price: $448
Fair value: $178
Implied upside / downside: -60.3 downside
Current published rating: Hold on Mar 18, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.
What changed section
2026-03-18
Raised server share-gain assumptions modestly
Impact: +0.9% fair value
2026-03-10
Maintained cautious AI accelerator adoption curve
Impact: Keeps rating at Hold
2026-03-04
Improved margin mix assumptions for data center
Impact: +40 bps operating margin