Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)
AMD remains a credible data-center and AI challenger with improving margin structure, though valuation still requires steady execution on both CPU and accelerator share gains.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Sell signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $448 versus $178 fair value, implying -60.3 downside.
Current workspace signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$448
Fair value
$178
-60.3 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:55 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:55 AM UTC.
Filing reference
144 filed Jun 2, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-27.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
StrongServer and AI exposure continue to support a strong growth opportunity set.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are improving, but they still trail the strongest semiconductor peers.
Balance sheet
StrongNet cash keeps the balance sheet supportive during the investment cycle.
Valuation
ModerateThe setup is constructive, but the multiple still requires steady execution.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution has improved, though share-gain durability still needs to be proven across cycles.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$212
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are supportive of the upside case.
Base case
$178
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$145
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support remain supportive in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
16.0%
±1.5% => ±$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Server CPU share gains remain the core driver of medium-term earnings power.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 16.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
9.1%
±0.5% => ∓$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle
Operating Margin (Year 5)
26.0%
±100 bps => ±$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (24.6%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes launch mix and avoids over-weighting peak quarter product profitability.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-27.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
AMD's normalization approach smooths product-cycle volatility and puts more weight on durable data-center share gains than on quarter-specific launch noise.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $34.6B | Live reported | $28.9B +21.9% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths product-transition timing and the pace of server and AI share gains. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 10.7% | Live reported | 24.6% +347 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes launch mix and avoids over-weighting peak quarter product profitability. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $6.7B | Live reported | $3.4B 11.8% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up inventory and receivables timing through the current product cycle. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $2.4B | Live reported | $3.1B Net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment retains a conservative cash view while still recognizing net cash. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as Reiterated. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $448 versus a base-case fair value of $178, implying -60.3 downside.
Fair value $178 vs. current $448 (-60.3 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $170 to $182.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 24.6%, with +347 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is $3.1B, with net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle.
Key drivers
Server CPU share gains remain the core driver of medium-term earnings power.
AI accelerator traction offers upside if deployment breadth expands beyond the initial customer set.
A cleaner mix shift toward data-center revenue continues to support margin improvement.
Key risks
AI accelerator adoption may prove slower or narrower than current expectations imply.
Competitive intensity can pressure both pricing and margin durability across product cycles.
Execution risk remains elevated when multiple large product ramps overlap.
What would change our view
Broader AI accelerator customer adoption would improve the current rating case.
A slower pace of server share gains would likely reduce confidence in the model.
Sustained margin improvement through the cycle would support a more constructive stance.
Near-term catalysts
Server CPU share-gain data points remain the clearest near-term catalyst for estimate revisions.
AI accelerator deployments and customer breadth can shift sentiment quickly.
Gross-margin commentary around product mix remains important for confidence.
What we are watching
Whether AI demand broadens enough to support a steadier accelerator contribution.
How much of current margin improvement is structural versus mix-driven.
Any sign that server share gains are plateauing before the model assumes.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 18, 2026.
Report updated
Mar 18, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
Reiterated
Published Mar 18, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Mar 18, 2026
Analyst note
Watching server share gains, AI accelerator breadth, and the durability of margin improvement.
What changed in the report
Mar 18, 2026
Raised server share-gain assumptions modestly
Impact: +0.9% fair value
Mar 10, 2026
Maintained cautious AI accelerator adoption curve
Impact: Keeps rating at Hold
Mar 4, 2026
Improved margin mix assumptions for data center
Impact: +40 bps operating margin
Report timeline
Mar 18, 2026
Maintained Hold as better server execution remains balanced by elevated expectations.
Feb 5, 2026
Moved to Hold from a more cautious stance as server mix and execution improved.
Dec 9, 2025
Started coverage with a balanced view on share gains versus execution risk.