Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)
AMD remains a credible data-center and AI challenger with improving margin structure, though valuation still requires steady execution on both CPU and accelerator share gains.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest price context, filing updates, refreshed normalized statements, and current model output, return to the company page.
Live reference context
These cards show the latest live reference data beside the published note. The written note and published rating remain anchored to the report date above.
Current model signal
Buy
Confidence
Low
Current price
$218
Latest analyst action
Reiterated
Mar 18, 2026
Latest published rating
Hold
Mar 18, 2026
Fair value
$244
Upside / Downside
+12.0 upside
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Current price data
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Latest cached quote is past the freshness window. Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 2:36 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 2:41 AM UTC.
Latest filing / report
ARS filed Mar 27, 2026 | Reporting period Dec 27, 2025
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:32 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 3:32 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceReported fundamentals
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-27.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Analyst summary
AMD remains a credible data-center and AI challenger with improving margin structure, though valuation still requires steady execution on both CPU and accelerator share gains.
Why this view
- Valuation implies 12.0% upside to fair value.
- Operating trends show +34.1% revenue growth with 10.7% operating margin.
- Cash-flow quality shows 19.4% FCF margin.
- Balance sheet remains net cash positive at $7.4B, equal to 21.4% of revenue.
What to watch
Whether AI demand broadens enough to support a steadier accelerator contribution.
Thesis scorecard
Lightweight qualitative scorecard across the core dimensions shaping the current investment view.
Growth
StrongServer and AI exposure continue to support a strong growth opportunity set.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are improving, but they still trail the strongest semiconductor peers.
Balance sheet
StrongNet cash keeps the balance sheet supportive during the investment cycle.
Valuation
ModerateThe setup is constructive, but the multiple still requires steady execution.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution has improved, though share-gain durability still needs to be proven across cycles.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case value
$291
Stronger execution and valuation support than the base case.
Base case value
$244
This is the main recommendation anchor used on the public company page.
Bear case value
$199
Weaker assumptions or lower multiple support than the base case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts, and the note under each number explains why that level was used in the base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
16.0%
±1.5% => ±$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest normalized FY revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Server CPU share gains remain the core driver of medium-term earnings power.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 16.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
9.1%
±0.5% => ∓$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle
Operating Margin (Year 5)
26.0%
±100 bps => ±$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It assumes some expansion from today's normalized operating margin (10.7%), with mix, scale, and operating leverage doing the work over time. Margin input normalizes launch mix and avoids over-weighting peak quarter product profitability.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model inputs vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the live reported fundamentals versus the latest normalized annual inputs still used in the current public analysis model.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-27.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Normalization impact on the thesis
AMD's normalization approach smooths product-cycle volatility and puts more weight on durable data-center share gains than on quarter-specific launch noise.
| Metric | Reported | Status | Model input | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $34.6B | Live reported | $34.6B +34.1% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths product-transition timing and the pace of server and AI share gains. | Model / normalized |
| Operating Margin | 10.7% | Live reported | 10.7% +333 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes launch mix and avoids over-weighting peak quarter product profitability. | Model / normalized |
| FCF (TTM) | $6.7B | Live reported | $6.7B 19.4% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up inventory and receivables timing through the current product cycle. | Model / normalized |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $2.3B | Live reported | $7.4B Net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment retains a conservative cash view while still recognizing net cash. | Model / normalized |
Why this rating
Shares currently trade at $218 versus a base-case fair value of $244, implying +12.0 upside. That supports a Buy rating with Low confidence under the current model.
Fair value $244 vs. current $218 (+12.0 upside).
Current price
$218
Fair value
$244
Upside / Downside
+12.0 upside
Model signal / Confidence
Buy / Low
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods show a wider range from $103 to $359, which tempers conviction.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 10.7%, with +333 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning remains net cash positive at $7.4B, with net cash positive after disciplined investment cycle.
Valuation breakdown
| Method name | Implied value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $359 | 45% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $176 | 35% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $103 | 20% |
Key drivers
Server CPU share gains remain the core driver of medium-term earnings power.
AI accelerator traction offers upside if deployment breadth expands beyond the initial customer set.
A cleaner mix shift toward data-center revenue continues to support margin improvement.
Key risks
AI accelerator adoption may prove slower or narrower than current expectations imply.
Competitive intensity can pressure both pricing and margin durability across product cycles.
Execution risk remains elevated when multiple large product ramps overlap.
What would change our view
Broader AI accelerator customer adoption would improve the current rating case.
A slower pace of server share gains would likely reduce confidence in the model.
Sustained margin improvement through the cycle would support a more constructive stance.
Near-term catalysts
Server CPU share-gain data points remain the clearest near-term catalyst for estimate revisions.
AI accelerator deployments and customer breadth can shift sentiment quickly.
Gross-margin commentary around product mix remains important for confidence.
What we are watching
Whether AI demand broadens enough to support a steadier accelerator contribution.
How much of current margin improvement is structural versus mix-driven.
Any sign that server share gains are plateauing before the model assumes.
Coverage metadata
Last updated
Mar 18, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest analyst action
Reiterated
Mar 18, 2026
Latest published rating
Hold
Mar 18, 2026
Analyst note
Watching server share gains, AI accelerator breadth, and the durability of margin improvement.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Current price source
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Latest cached quote is past the freshness window. Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 2:36 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 2:41 AM UTC.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-27.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Latest filing source
SEC EDGAR submissions API
ARS filed Mar 27, 2026 | Reporting period Dec 27, 2025
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:32 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 3:32 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceCoverage timeline
Timeline entries reflect published analyst actions and ratings. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 18, 2026
Maintained Hold as better server execution remains balanced by elevated expectations.
Feb 5, 2026
Moved to Hold from a more cautious stance as server mix and execution improved.
Dec 9, 2025
Started coverage with a balanced view on share gains versus execution risk.