Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
Oracle increasingly benefits from OCI backlog, database franchise durability, and higher cloud relevance, leaving room for upside as cloud infrastructure execution improves.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest price context, filing updates, refreshed normalized statements, and current model output, return to the company page.
Live reference context
These cards show the latest live reference data beside the published note. The written note and published rating remain anchored to the report date above.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence
Low
Current price
$152
Latest analyst action
Upgraded
Mar 17, 2026
Latest published rating
Buy
Mar 17, 2026
Fair value
$79
Upside / Downside
-48.0 downside
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Current price data
AnalystScope curated current price
Live market-price fetch unavailable. Using the curated current price field.
Latest filing / report
4 filed Apr 1, 2026 | Reporting period Mar 30, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceReported fundamentals
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:32 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:32 UTC.
Analyst summary
Oracle increasingly benefits from OCI backlog, database franchise durability, and higher cloud relevance, leaving room for upside as cloud infrastructure execution improves.
Why this view
- Valuation implies 48.0% downside versus fair value.
- Operating trends show +8.3% revenue growth with 30.8% operating margin.
- Cash-flow quality shows -0.7% FCF margin.
- Balance sheet carries net debt of $73.1B, equal to 127.4% of revenue.
What to watch
Whether OCI growth translates into steadier revenue conversion rather than quarter-to-quarter lumpiness.
Thesis scorecard
Lightweight qualitative scorecard across the core dimensions shaping the current investment view.
Growth
ModerateOCI and backlog support growth, though scale and timing remain less predictable than hyperscaler peers.
Profitability
StrongRecurring support revenue and software economics continue to support attractive margins.
Balance sheet
WeakLeverage remains material even with strong recurring cash generation.
Valuation
StrongThe current setup still leaves room for OCI execution upside.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution has improved, but cloud delivery cadence remains an important watchpoint.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case value
$89
Stronger execution and valuation support than the base case.
Base case value
$79
This is the main recommendation anchor used on the public company page.
Bear case value
$66
Weaker assumptions or lower multiple support than the base case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts, and the note under each number explains why that level was used in the base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
9.0%
±1.0% => ±$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest normalized FY revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: OCI backlog conversion remains the main driver of incremental growth and multiple re-rating potential.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
±0.5% => ±$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 9.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Oracle Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.6%
±0.5% => ∓$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow
Operating Margin (Year 5)
32.5%
±100 bps => ±$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's normalized operating margin (30.8%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model inputs vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the live reported fundamentals versus the latest normalized annual inputs still used in the current public analysis model.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:32 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:32 UTC.
Normalization impact on the thesis
Oracle's normalization choices reduce OCI timing noise and make the thesis rely more on repeatable backlog conversion and margin progress than on any single large contract quarter.
| Metric | Reported | Status | Model input | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $57.4B | Live reported | $57.4B +8.3% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths large OCI contract timing and legacy license volatility. | Model / normalized |
| Operating Margin | 30.8% | Live reported | 30.8% +178 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending. | Model / normalized |
| FCF (TTM) | ($394.0M) | Live reported | ($400.0M) -0.7% margin Adjustment: FCF input strips capex timing and working-capital noise around large customer deployments. | Model / normalized |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $38.5B | Live reported | ($73.1B) Leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage conservative despite recurring maintenance cash flows. | Model / normalized |
Why this rating
Shares currently trade at $152 versus a base-case fair value of $79, implying -48.0 downside. That supports a Sell rating with Low confidence under the current model.
Fair value $79 vs. current $152 (-48.0 downside).
Current price
$152
Fair value
$79
Upside / Downside
-48.0 downside
Model signal / Confidence
Sell / Low
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods show a wider range from -$4 to $168, which tempers conviction.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 30.8%, with +178 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning currently reflects net debt of ($73.1B), with leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow.
Valuation breakdown
| Method name | Implied value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | -$4 | 50% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $168 | 30% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $152 | 20% |
Key drivers
OCI backlog conversion remains the main driver of incremental growth and multiple re-rating potential.
The core database and maintenance base continues to support durable cash flow.
Higher cloud relevance improves strategic positioning against a historically mature perception.
Key risks
Large contract timing can create uneven growth and cash-flow conversion across quarters.
Heavy capital intensity for OCI could pressure near-term free cash flow.
Leverage reduces flexibility if the cloud growth path proves less durable than expected.
What would change our view
Stronger OCI conversion with sustained margin support would further improve the rating case.
A weaker cloud delivery cadence would quickly reduce confidence in the current upside view.
More evidence that legacy database demand is softening would weigh on valuation support.
Near-term catalysts
OCI backlog conversion and capex commentary remain the most important near-term catalysts.
Any step-up in large enterprise or sovereign cloud wins can shift sentiment quickly.
Margin commentary around cloud scaling efficiency matters meaningfully for confidence.
What we are watching
Whether OCI growth translates into steadier revenue conversion rather than quarter-to-quarter lumpiness.
How efficiently Oracle scales capital intensity as larger deployments come online.
Any sign that the legacy database base is becoming less durable than the current model assumes.
Coverage metadata
Last updated
Mar 17, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest analyst action
Upgraded
Mar 17, 2026
Latest published rating
Buy
Mar 17, 2026
Analyst note
Monitoring OCI backlog conversion, capex discipline, and the durability of the core database franchise.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Current price source
AnalystScope curated current price
Live market-price fetch unavailable. Using the curated current price field.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:32 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:32 UTC.
Latest filing source
SEC EDGAR submissions API
4 filed Apr 1, 2026 | Reporting period Mar 30, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceCoverage timeline
Timeline entries reflect published analyst actions and ratings. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 17, 2026
Upgraded to Buy as OCI conversion and backlog durability improved the valuation range.
Jan 23, 2026
Stayed at Hold while OCI momentum improved but timing risk remained elevated.
Dec 4, 2025
Entered coverage with a Hold stance pending clearer OCI execution evidence.