Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
Oracle increasingly benefits from OCI backlog, database franchise durability, and higher cloud relevance, leaving room for upside as cloud infrastructure execution improves.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Buy signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $138 versus $168 fair value, implying +22.2 upside.
Current workspace signal
Buy
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$138
Fair value
$168
+22.2 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Apr 10, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC. Fresh through Apr 11, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed Jun 2, 2026 | Reporting period May 31, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateOCI and backlog support growth, though scale and timing remain less predictable than hyperscaler peers.
Profitability
StrongRecurring support revenue and software economics continue to support attractive margins.
Balance sheet
WeakLeverage remains material even with strong recurring cash generation.
Valuation
StrongThe current setup still leaves room for OCI execution upside.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution has improved, but cloud delivery cadence remains an important watchpoint.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$190
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$168
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$140
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
9.0%
±1.0% => ±$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: OCI backlog conversion remains the main driver of incremental growth and multiple re-rating potential.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
±0.5% => ±$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 9.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Oracle Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.6%
±0.5% => ∓$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow
Operating Margin (Year 5)
32.5%
±100 bps => ±$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (31.6%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
Oracle's normalization choices reduce OCI timing noise and make the thesis rely more on repeatable backlog conversion and margin progress than on any single large contract quarter.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $57.4B | Live reported | $58.8B +9.1% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths large OCI contract timing and legacy license volatility. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 30.8% | Live reported | 31.6% +121 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | ($394.0M) | Live reported | $18.7B 31.8% margin Adjustment: FCF input strips capex timing and working-capital noise around large customer deployments. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $38.5B | Live reported | ($73.1B) Leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage conservative despite recurring maintenance cash flows. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Buy rating, with the latest note event recorded as Upgraded. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $138 versus a base-case fair value of $168, implying +22.2 upside.
Fair value $168 vs. current $138 (+22.2 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $160 to $172.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 31.6%, with +121 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($73.1B), with leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow.
Key drivers
OCI backlog conversion remains the main driver of incremental growth and multiple re-rating potential.
The core database and maintenance base continues to support durable cash flow.
Higher cloud relevance improves strategic positioning against a historically mature perception.
Key risks
Large contract timing can create uneven growth and cash-flow conversion across quarters.
Heavy capital intensity for OCI could pressure near-term free cash flow.
Leverage reduces flexibility if the cloud growth path proves less durable than expected.
What would change our view
Stronger OCI conversion with sustained margin support would further improve the rating case.
A weaker cloud delivery cadence would quickly reduce confidence in the current upside view.
More evidence that legacy database demand is softening would weigh on valuation support.
Near-term catalysts
OCI backlog conversion and capex commentary remain the most important near-term catalysts.
Any step-up in large enterprise or sovereign cloud wins can shift sentiment quickly.
Margin commentary around cloud scaling efficiency matters meaningfully for confidence.
What we are watching
Whether OCI growth translates into steadier revenue conversion rather than quarter-to-quarter lumpiness.
How efficiently Oracle scales capital intensity as larger deployments come online.
Any sign that the legacy database base is becoming less durable than the current model assumes.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 17, 2026.
Report updated
Mar 17, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
Upgraded
Published Mar 17, 2026
Current published rating
Buy
Published Mar 17, 2026
Analyst note
Monitoring OCI backlog conversion, capex discipline, and the durability of the core database franchise.
What changed in the report
Mar 17, 2026
Raised OCI backlog conversion in the base case
Impact: +1.4% fair value
Mar 9, 2026
Lifted capex assumptions for cloud infrastructure
Impact: -0.5% FCF outlook
Mar 3, 2026
Improved support revenue durability assumptions
Impact: Supports margin resilience
Report timeline
Mar 17, 2026
Upgraded to Buy as OCI conversion and backlog durability improved the valuation range.
Jan 23, 2026
Stayed at Hold while OCI momentum improved but timing risk remained elevated.
Dec 4, 2025
Entered coverage with a Hold stance pending clearer OCI execution evidence.