Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
Broadcom combines attractive AI networking and custom silicon exposure with high-quality infrastructure software cash flows, though post-deal leverage and elevated expectations keep the current view balanced.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Sell signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $418 versus $177 fair value, implying -57.6 downside.
Current workspace signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$418
Fair value
$177
-57.6 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:55 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:55 AM UTC.
Filing reference
8-K filed Jun 3, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 3, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-11-02.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
StrongAI networking and custom silicon still support strong medium-term growth.
Profitability
StrongThe business retains exceptional margin and cash-conversion characteristics.
Balance sheet
WeakLeverage remains the clearest offset after the VMware transaction.
Valuation
ModerateThe shares already discount strong execution and integration progress.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution quality is strong, but integration and customer concentration add complexity.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$198
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are supportive of the upside case.
Base case
$177
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$152
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
14.0%
±1.0% => ±$5.5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: AI networking and custom silicon demand remain the largest source of incremental upside.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$3.8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 14.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Broadcom Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.7%
±0.5% => ∓$4.8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage remains elevated after VMware
Operating Margin (Year 5)
46.0%
±100 bps => ±$2.2/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (46.2%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes post-acquisition mix effects and one-time integration costs.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-11-02.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
These adjustments smooth VMware integration noise and capital-structure effects, which keeps the Broadcom thesis focused on recurring infrastructure cash generation rather than transaction distortion.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $63.9B | Live reported | $59.3B +33.0% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths hyperscaler build timing and the current VMware integration cadence. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 39.9% | Live reported | 46.2% +159 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes post-acquisition mix effects and one-time integration costs. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $26.9B | Live reported | $22.8B 38.4% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up acquisition-related working-capital and restructuring timing. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($51.9B) | Live reported | ($60.4B) Leverage remains elevated after VMware Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage conservative after VMware rather than assuming rapid deleveraging. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as Reiterated. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $418 versus a base-case fair value of $177, implying -57.6 downside.
Fair value $177 vs. current $418 (-57.6 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $171 to $181.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 46.2%, with +159 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($60.4B), with leverage remains elevated after vmware.
Key drivers
AI networking and custom silicon demand remain the largest source of incremental upside.
Infrastructure software continues to support durable cash generation through the cycle.
Management has a long track record of extracting margin and cash flow from acquired assets.
Key risks
Post-VMware leverage limits balance-sheet flexibility versus other large-cap peers.
Customer concentration and hyperscaler timing can create short-term order volatility.
Integration execution risk remains meaningful if software growth or cost actions underdeliver.
What would change our view
Faster deleveraging would improve confidence in the current fair value range.
A more durable AI networking cycle would likely justify a stronger rating stance.
Evidence of weaker software renewal quality would reduce conviction in the thesis.
Near-term catalysts
AI networking demand and customer timing remain the nearest catalyst for estimate revisions.
VMware integration updates can materially shift confidence in the software contribution.
Debt reduction progress matters for both confidence and valuation support.
What we are watching
Whether software execution remains clean as integration actions move deeper into the model.
How much of the current AI demand strength is structural versus front-loaded capacity spending.
The pace of deleveraging relative to capital-allocation expectations.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 18, 2026.
Report updated
Mar 18, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
Reiterated
Published Mar 18, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Mar 18, 2026
Analyst note
Watching AI networking durability, VMware integration quality, and the pace of deleveraging.
What changed in the report
Mar 18, 2026
Raised AI networking mix assumptions
Impact: +1.1% fair value
Mar 10, 2026
Maintained conservative deleveraging path
Impact: Caps upside multiple expansion
Mar 4, 2026
Improved software synergy capture assumptions
Impact: +0.5% FCF outlook
Report timeline
Mar 18, 2026
Maintained Hold as strong execution remains balanced by leverage and already-full expectations.
Jan 31, 2026
Moved to Hold as post-rally upside narrowed despite constructive operating trends.
Dec 12, 2025
Initiated with a Buy view on AI infrastructure demand and software cash-flow durability.