ORCL
Oracle Corporation
Oracle increasingly benefits from OCI backlog, database franchise durability, and higher cloud relevance, leaving room for upside as cloud infrastructure execution improves.
Live company workspace
This page is the current view. It combines the latest price context, filing status, reported fundamentals, refreshed normalized statements, and the current model output. Published actions and ratings stay here as reference, while the report page preserves the point-in-time note.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence: Low
Implied return: -48.0 downside
Fair value $79 vs. current $152 (-48.0 downside).
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Ticker
ORCL
Model signal
Sell
Confidence
Low
Fair value
$79
Upside / Downside
-48.0 downside
Jump to section
Live investment view
Base case stance: Sell with low confidence as shares trade at $152 versus $79 fair value, implying -48.0 downside. This workspace updates with the latest live inputs, while the published report remains a point-in-time note.
Current model signal
Sell
Latest analyst action
Upgraded
Published Mar 17, 2026
Latest published rating
Buy
Published Mar 17, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Current price data
AnalystScope curated current price
Live market-price fetch unavailable. Using the curated current price field.
Latest filing / report
4 filed Apr 1, 2026 | Reporting period Mar 30, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceReported fundamentals
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:32 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:32 UTC.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence
Low
Current price
$152
Fair value
$79
Upside / Downside
-48.0 downside
Top drivers
OCI backlog conversion remains the main driver of incremental growth and multiple re-rating potential.
The core database and maintenance base continues to support durable cash flow.
Top risks
Large contract timing can create uneven growth and cash-flow conversion across quarters.
Heavy capital intensity for OCI could pressure near-term free cash flow.
Sector / Industry
Information Technology
Software Infrastructure
Headquarters
Austin, TX
Market Cap
$430B
Current / Fair Value
$152 / $79
Upside / Downside
-48.0 downside
Data status
Last updated: Mar 20, 2026
Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.
Coverage is currently limited to ten companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, and NFLX.
Normalized financial summary
Curated normalized annual basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Revenue (Latest FY)
FY2025 | +8.3% vs prior FY
$57.4B
Operating Margin
+178 bps vs prior FY
30.8%
FCF (Latest FY)
-0.7% margin | FY2025
($400.0M)
Net Cash / (Debt)
Leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow
($73.1B)
Key ratios
EV / NTM EBITDA
Sector 15.8x
15.4x
P / NTM EPS
Sector 24.1x
24.1x
ROIC
Sector 14.6%
18.3%
Rule of 40
Healthy
41%
Base-case assumptions
These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
9.0%
±1.0% => ±$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest normalized FY revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: OCI backlog conversion remains the main driver of incremental growth and multiple re-rating potential.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
±0.5% => ±$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 9.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Oracle Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.6%
±0.5% => ∓$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow
Operating Margin (Year 5)
32.5%
±100 bps => ±$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's normalized operating margin (30.8%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Scenario workbench
Analyst workbench
This is a local edited scenario, not the published AnalystScope base case or report view. It keeps the published base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates the fair-value estimate immediately.
Base-case rationale remains in the assumptions section above. This first slice uses the published sensitivities to estimate how the edited scenario changes fair value while the cross-check methods remain the published reference point.
Editable assumptions
Adjust the inputs within a reasonable range. Edits stay local to this browser session.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Published base case: 9.0% | ±1.0% => ±$7/sh
Range: 3.0% to 15.0%
Terminal Growth
Published base case: 2.5% | ±0.5% => ±$6/sh
Range: 1.0% to 4.0%
WACC
Published base case: 8.6% | ±0.5% => ∓$8/sh
Range: 6.6% to 10.6%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Published base case: 32.5% | ±100 bps => ±$5/sh
Range: 24.5% to 40.5%
Published base case
Fair value
$79
Upside / Downside
-48.0 downside
Model signal
Sell
Edited scenario
Fair value
$79
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
-48.0 downside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Sell
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Normalized financial statements
Curated normalized annual statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50.0B | $53.0B | $57.4B |
| Gross Profit | $35.6B | $37.9B | $41.3B |
| Operating Income | $13.1B | $15.4B | $17.7B |
| EBITDA | $15.2B | $17.7B | $20.3B |
| Net Income | $8.5B | $10.5B | $12.5B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $9.1B | $10.6B | $12.0B |
| Total Debt | $83.5B | $83.7B | $85.1B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($74.4B) | ($73.1B) | ($73.1B) |
| Total Assets | $134.4B | $141.0B | $168.4B |
| Total Liabilities | $132.8B | $131.8B | $147.4B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $1.6B | $9.2B | $21.0B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $17.2B | $18.7B | $20.8B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $2.1B | $2.3B | $2.6B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($8.7B) | ($6.9B) | ($21.2B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.5B | $11.8B | ($400.0M) |
Model inputs vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the live reported fundamentals versus the latest normalized annual inputs still used in the current public analysis model.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:32 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:32 UTC.
Normalization impact on the thesis
Oracle's normalization choices reduce OCI timing noise and make the thesis rely more on repeatable backlog conversion and margin progress than on any single large contract quarter.
Statement basis diagnostics
Latest normalized basis FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.
Income statement
Revenue
FY2025 $57.4B vs reported TTM $57.4B (+0.0%)
Operating margin
FY2025 30.8% vs reported 30.8% (+0.0 pts)
Cash flow
Free cash flow
FY2025 ($400.0M) vs reported TTM ($394.0M) (-1.5%)
FCF margin
FY2025 -0.7% vs reported -0.7% (-0.0 pts)
Balance sheet
Net cash / (debt)
FY2025 Net debt $73.1B vs reported Net cash $38.5B
| Metric | Reported | Status | Model input | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $57.4B | Live reported | $57.4B +8.3% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths large OCI contract timing and legacy license volatility. | Model / normalized |
| Operating Margin | 30.8% | Live reported | 30.8% +178 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending. | Model / normalized |
| FCF (TTM) | ($394.0M) | Live reported | ($400.0M) -0.7% margin Adjustment: FCF input strips capex timing and working-capital noise around large customer deployments. | Model / normalized |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $38.5B | Live reported | ($73.1B) Leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage conservative despite recurring maintenance cash flows. | Model / normalized |
Normalization review
Oracle's normalization choices reduce OCI timing noise and make the thesis rely more on repeatable backlog conversion and margin progress than on any single large contract quarter.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable drift first.
| Metric | Latest normalized basis | Latest live reported | Delta / variance | Materiality | Normalization rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Cash / (Debt) | ($73.1B) FY2025 normalized | $38.5B Live reported balance sheet | -$111.6B / -194.4% of revenue | High drift | Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage conservative despite recurring maintenance cash flows. |
FCF (TTM) | ($400.0M) FY2025 normalized | ($394.0M) Live reported TTM | -$6.0M / -1.5% | In band | FCF input strips capex timing and working-capital noise around large customer deployments. |
Operating Margin | 30.8% FY2025 normalized | 30.8% Live reported margin | +0.0 pts | In band | Margin input normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending. |
Revenue (TTM) | $57.4B FY2025 normalized | $57.4B Live reported TTM | +$0.0 / +0.0% | In band | Model revenue smooths large OCI contract timing and legacy license volatility. |
Ratios + trends
Normalized annual income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+8.3%
Gross margin
72.0%
Operating margin
30.8%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+1.8 pts
EBITDA margin
35.4%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+2.0 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+14.9%
Net margin
21.8%
FCF margin
-0.7%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
-23.0 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
-103.4%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$12.0B
Total debt
$85.1B
Net cash / (debt)
Net debt $73.1B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net debt 127.4% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (-5.9 pts)
87.5%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
41.1 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.1x)
1.7x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.0x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-1.2x)
-0.0x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+23.9 pts)
36.9%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (+65.0 pts)
101.9%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+5.2x)
8.2x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.1x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
36.6%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.3x
Financial diagnostics
Compact normalized-basis diagnostics for analyst triage.
Drift focus
High driftBalance sheet | Net Cash / (Debt) | -$111.6B / -194.4% of revenue
Revenue momentum
Stable+8.3% latest 1Y growth
vs +6.0% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Improving30.8% latest margin
+178 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Weakening-0.7% latest FCF margin
-2296 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StrengtheningNet debt 127.4% of revenue
vs Net debt 137.9% of revenue prior FY
Thesis scorecard
Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.
Growth
ModerateOCI and backlog support growth, though scale and timing remain less predictable than hyperscaler peers.
Profitability
StrongRecurring support revenue and software economics continue to support attractive margins.
Balance sheet
WeakLeverage remains material even with strong recurring cash generation.
Valuation
StrongThe current setup still leaves room for OCI execution upside.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution has improved, but cloud delivery cadence remains an important watchpoint.
Key drivers
OCI backlog conversion remains the main driver of incremental growth and multiple re-rating potential.
The core database and maintenance base continues to support durable cash flow.
Higher cloud relevance improves strategic positioning against a historically mature perception.
Key risks
Large contract timing can create uneven growth and cash-flow conversion across quarters.
Heavy capital intensity for OCI could pressure near-term free cash flow.
Leverage reduces flexibility if the cloud growth path proves less durable than expected.
What would change our view
Stronger OCI conversion with sustained margin support would further improve the rating case.
A weaker cloud delivery cadence would quickly reduce confidence in the current upside view.
More evidence that legacy database demand is softening would weigh on valuation support.
Near-term catalysts
OCI backlog conversion and capex commentary remain the most important near-term catalysts.
Any step-up in large enterprise or sovereign cloud wins can shift sentiment quickly.
Margin commentary around cloud scaling efficiency matters meaningfully for confidence.
What we are watching
Whether OCI growth translates into steadier revenue conversion rather than quarter-to-quarter lumpiness.
How efficiently Oracle scales capital intensity as larger deployments come online.
Any sign that the legacy database base is becoming less durable than the current model assumes.
Coverage metadata
Last updated
Mar 17, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest analyst action
Upgraded
Mar 17, 2026
Latest published rating
Buy
Mar 17, 2026
Analyst note
Monitoring OCI backlog conversion, capex discipline, and the durability of the core database franchise.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Current price source
AnalystScope curated current price
Live market-price fetch unavailable. Using the curated current price field.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:32 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:32 UTC.
Latest filing source
SEC EDGAR submissions API
4 filed Apr 1, 2026 | Reporting period Mar 30, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceCoverage timeline
Timeline events show published analyst actions and ratings. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 17, 2026
Upgraded to Buy as OCI conversion and backlog durability improved the valuation range.
Jan 23, 2026
Stayed at Hold while OCI momentum improved but timing risk remained elevated.
Dec 4, 2025
Entered coverage with a Hold stance pending clearer OCI execution evidence.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$89
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$79
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$66
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Why this rating
The stock currently trades at $152 versus a base-case fair value of $79, implying -48.0 downside. That supports a Sell rating with Low confidence under the current model.
Current price
$152
Fair value
$79
Upside / Downside
-48.0 downside
Model signal / Confidence
Sell / Low
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods show a wider range from -$4 to $168, which tempers conviction.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 30.8%, with +178 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning currently reflects net debt of ($73.1B), with leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow.
Valuation methods
| Method | Implied Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | -$4 | 50% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $168 | 30% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $152 | 20% |
Buy / Hold / Sell output
Current model recommendation
Sell
Price: $152
Fair value: $79
Implied upside / downside: -48.0 downside
Latest published rating: Buy on Mar 17, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.
What changed section
2026-03-17
Raised OCI backlog conversion in the base case
Impact: +1.4% fair value
2026-03-09
Lifted capex assumptions for cloud infrastructure
Impact: -0.5% FCF outlook
2026-03-03
Improved support revenue durability assumptions
Impact: Supports margin resilience