ORCL
Oracle Corporation
Oracle increasingly benefits from OCI backlog, database franchise durability, and higher cloud relevance, leaving room for upside as cloud infrastructure execution improves.
Live company workspace
This page is the active working surface. It combines the latest price context, filing status, reported fundamentals, refreshed model-base statements, current valuation output, and the scenario workbench. The report page stays separate as the published archival report.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 17, 2026.
Current model signal
Buy
Confidence: Medium
Implied return: +22.2 upside
Fair value $168 vs. current $138 (+22.2 upside).
Live investment view
Base case stance: Buy with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $138 versus $168 fair value, implying +22.2 upside. This workspace updates with the latest daily scheduled quote and reported inputs, while the published report remains a point-in-time note.
Price basis warning
Current price-dependent output is using a stale scheduled quote. Fair value, upside / downside, and the model signal are still shown, but they should be read with caution until a fresher daily scheduled quote refresh is available.
Current model signal
Buy
Latest note event
Upgraded
Published Mar 17, 2026
Current published rating
Buy
Published Mar 17, 2026
Daily scheduled refresh
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Apr 10, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC. Fresh through Apr 11, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Filing refreshed
4 filed Jun 2, 2026 | Reporting period May 31, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceFundamentals refreshed
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Current model signal
Buy
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$138
Fair value
$168
Upside / Downside
+22.2 upside
Top drivers
OCI backlog conversion remains the main driver of incremental growth and multiple re-rating potential.
The core database and maintenance base continues to support durable cash flow.
Top risks
Large contract timing can create uneven growth and cash-flow conversion across quarters.
Heavy capital intensity for OCI could pressure near-term free cash flow.
Sector / Industry
Information Technology
Software Infrastructure
Headquarters
Austin, TX
Market Cap
$430B
Current / Fair Value
$138 / $168
Upside / Downside
+22.2 upside
Coverage snapshot
Report updated: Apr 10, 2026
Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.
Coverage currently spans twenty-eight companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, NFLX, V, MA, WMT, PG, JNJ, ADBE, CSCO, TXN, COST, KO, HD, PEP, QCOM, INTU, MCD, ADP, ABT, and IBM.
Model-base financial summary
Current annual model-base range: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Revenue (Latest FY)
FY2025 | +9.1% vs prior FY
$58.8B
Operating Margin
+121 bps vs prior FY
31.6%
FCF (Latest FY)
31.8% margin | FY2025
$18.7B
Net Cash / (Debt)
Leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow
($73.1B)
Key ratios
EV / NTM EBITDA
Sector 15.8x
15.4x
P / NTM EPS
Sector 24.1x
24.1x
ROIC
Sector 14.6%
18.3%
Rule of 40
Healthy
41%
Base-case assumptions
These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
9.0%
±1.0% => ±$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: OCI backlog conversion remains the main driver of incremental growth and multiple re-rating potential.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
±0.5% => ±$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 9.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Oracle Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.6%
±0.5% => ∓$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow
Operating Margin (Year 5)
32.5%
±100 bps => ±$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (31.6%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Scenario workbench
Analyst workbench
This is a private working layer, not the published AnalystScope base case or report view. It keeps the published base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates the fair-value estimate immediately.
Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for ORCL. Base-case rationale remains in the assumptions section above. Scenario output now reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the published AnalystScope framework.
Editable assumptions
Adjust the inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the published base case.
This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.
Matches the published AnalystScope base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Published base case: 9.0% | ±1.0% => ±$7/sh
Allowed range: 3.0% to 15.0%
Terminal Growth
Published base case: 2.5% | ±0.5% => ±$6/sh
Allowed range: 1.0% to 4.0%
WACC
Published base case: 8.6% | ±0.5% => ∓$8/sh
Allowed range: 6.6% to 10.6%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Published base case: 32.5% | ±100 bps => ±$5/sh
Allowed range: 24.5% to 40.5%
Private saved scenarios
Save up to 5 named scenarios for ORCL. They never overwrite the published AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.
Checking private workspace session...
Private scenario note
Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.
0 / 280
Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.
No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.
Published base case
Fair value
$168
Upside / Downside
+22.2 upside
Model signal
Buy
Published base-case output
Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.
Fair value
$168
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
+22.2 upside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Buy
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Method movement inside the scenario
This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.
Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.
Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.
| Method | Published base | Edited scenario | Delta | How it moved / main drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF (Base) DCF-style | 50% weight | $172 | $172 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style | 30% weight | $168 | $168 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple | 20% weight | $160 | $160 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Weighted fair value Published framework result | Published framework result | $168 | $168 | +$0/sh | Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way. |
Published base case vs private scenarios
Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.
Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.
Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR (5Y) | Terminal Growth | WACC | Op. Margin (Y5) | Fair Value | Upside / Downside | Model Signal | Delta vs Base | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AnalystScope base case PublishedOfficial AnalystScope anchor row. | 9.0% | 2.5% | 8.6% | 32.5% | $168 | +22.2 upside | Buy | Published anchor |
Model-base financial statements
AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $50.0B | $53.9B | $58.8B |
| Gross Profit | $35.6B | $38.6B | $42.3B |
| Operating Income | $14.4B | $16.4B | $18.6B |
| EBITDA | $16.5B | $18.8B | $21.2B |
| Net Income | $8.2B | $9.9B | $11.3B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $9.1B | $10.6B | $12.0B |
| Total Debt | $83.5B | $83.7B | $85.1B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($74.4B) | ($73.1B) | ($73.1B) |
| Total Assets | $129.0B | $137.0B | $146.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $111.2B | $121.6B | $133.4B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $17.8B | $15.4B | $12.6B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $18.1B | $20.0B | $22.3B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $2.1B | $2.4B | $2.6B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($2.8B) | ($3.2B) | ($3.6B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $15.3B | $16.8B | $18.7B |
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
Oracle's normalization choices reduce OCI timing noise and make the thesis rely more on repeatable backlog conversion and margin progress than on any single large contract quarter.
Model-base diagnostics
Latest model base FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.
Income statement
Revenue
FY2025 $58.8B vs reported TTM $57.4B (+2.4%)
Operating margin
FY2025 31.6% vs reported 30.8% (+0.8 pts)
Cash flow
Free cash flow
FY2025 $18.7B vs reported TTM ($394.0M) (+4846.2%)
FCF margin
FY2025 31.8% vs reported -0.7% (+32.5 pts)
Balance sheet
Net cash / (debt)
FY2025 Net debt $73.1B vs reported Net cash $38.5B
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $57.4B | Live reported | $58.8B +9.1% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths large OCI contract timing and legacy license volatility. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 30.8% | Live reported | 31.6% +121 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | ($394.0M) | Live reported | $18.7B 31.8% margin Adjustment: FCF input strips capex timing and working-capital noise around large customer deployments. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $38.5B | Live reported | ($73.1B) Leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage conservative despite recurring maintenance cash flows. | Model base |
Reported vs durable model base
How to read this
Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.
This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.
Why the model base differs
Oracle's normalization choices reduce OCI timing noise and make the thesis rely more on repeatable backlog conversion and margin progress than on any single large contract quarter.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.
| Metric | Model base | Live reported | Variance vs reported | Adjustment size | Why lower / higher? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF (TTM) | $18.7B FY2025 model base | ($394.0M) Live reported TTM | +$19.1B / +4846% | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest cash-flow drag is fully durable. It strips capex timing and working-capital noise around large customer deployments. |
Net Cash / (Debt) | ($73.1B) FY2025 model base | $38.5B Live reported balance sheet | -$111.6B / -194% of revenue | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is more conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure. It keeps leverage conservative despite recurring maintenance cash flows. |
Revenue (TTM) | $58.8B FY2025 model base | $57.4B Live reported TTM | +$1.4B / +2% | Close to reported | Model base is higher than live reported because the thesis does not assume the latest reported softness is the durable revenue run-rate. It smooths large OCI contract timing and legacy license volatility. |
Operating Margin | 31.6% FY2025 model base | 30.8% Live reported margin | +0.8 pts | Close to reported | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest reported margin pressure is the durable earnings base. It normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending. |
Ratios + trends
Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+9.1%
Gross margin
71.9%
Operating margin
31.6%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+1.2 pts
EBITDA margin
36.1%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+1.2 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+13.4%
Net margin
19.2%
FCF margin
31.8%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+0.6 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+11.3%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$12.0B
Total debt
$85.1B
Net cash / (debt)
Net debt $73.1B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net debt 124.3% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (+2.6 pts)
91.4%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
40.3 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
2.0x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.1x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.7x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+0.2 pts)
6.1%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (+0.1 pts)
16.1%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
1.4x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.1x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
21.4%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.4x
Financial diagnostics
Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.
Adjustment focus
Large analyst adjustmentCash flow | FCF (TTM) | +$19.1B / +4846%
Revenue momentum
Stable+9.1% latest 1Y growth
vs +7.8% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Improving31.6% latest margin
+121 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Stable31.8% latest FCF margin
+63 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StrengtheningNet debt 124.3% of revenue
vs Net debt 135.6% of revenue prior FY
Thesis scorecard
Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.
Growth
ModerateOCI and backlog support growth, though scale and timing remain less predictable than hyperscaler peers.
Profitability
StrongRecurring support revenue and software economics continue to support attractive margins.
Balance sheet
WeakLeverage remains material even with strong recurring cash generation.
Valuation
StrongThe current setup still leaves room for OCI execution upside.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution has improved, but cloud delivery cadence remains an important watchpoint.
Key drivers
OCI backlog conversion remains the main driver of incremental growth and multiple re-rating potential.
The core database and maintenance base continues to support durable cash flow.
Higher cloud relevance improves strategic positioning against a historically mature perception.
Key risks
Large contract timing can create uneven growth and cash-flow conversion across quarters.
Heavy capital intensity for OCI could pressure near-term free cash flow.
Leverage reduces flexibility if the cloud growth path proves less durable than expected.
What would change our view
Stronger OCI conversion with sustained margin support would further improve the rating case.
A weaker cloud delivery cadence would quickly reduce confidence in the current upside view.
More evidence that legacy database demand is softening would weigh on valuation support.
Near-term catalysts
OCI backlog conversion and capex commentary remain the most important near-term catalysts.
Any step-up in large enterprise or sovereign cloud wins can shift sentiment quickly.
Margin commentary around cloud scaling efficiency matters meaningfully for confidence.
What we are watching
Whether OCI growth translates into steadier revenue conversion rather than quarter-to-quarter lumpiness.
How efficiently Oracle scales capital intensity as larger deployments come online.
Any sign that the legacy database base is becoming less durable than the current model assumes.
Coverage metadata
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 17, 2026.
Report updated
Mar 17, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
Upgraded
Mar 17, 2026
Current published rating
Buy
Mar 17, 2026
Analyst note
Monitoring OCI backlog conversion, capex discipline, and the durability of the core database franchise.
Coverage timeline
Timeline events show published note events and the rating that followed each event. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 17, 2026
Upgraded to Buy as OCI conversion and backlog durability improved the valuation range.
Jan 23, 2026
Stayed at Hold while OCI momentum improved but timing risk remained elevated.
Dec 4, 2025
Entered coverage with a Hold stance pending clearer OCI execution evidence.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$190
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$168
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$140
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Why this rating
The stock is currently being evaluated against $138 versus a base-case fair value of $168, implying +22.2 upside. That supports a Buy rating with Medium confidence under the current model.
Stale scheduled quote
$138
Fair value
$168
Upside / Downside
+22.2 upside
Model signal / Confidence
Buy / Medium
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $160 to $172.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 31.6%, with +121 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning currently reflects net debt of ($73.1B), with leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow.
Valuation methods
| Method | Implied Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $172 | 50% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $168 | 30% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $160 | 20% |
Buy / Hold / Sell output
Current model recommendation
Buy
Price: $138
Fair value: $168
Implied upside / downside: +22.2 upside
Current published rating: Buy on Mar 17, 2026
The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.
What changed section
2026-03-17
Raised OCI backlog conversion in the base case
Impact: +1.4% fair value
2026-03-09
Lifted capex assumptions for cloud infrastructure
Impact: -0.5% FCF outlook
2026-03-03
Improved support revenue durability assumptions
Impact: Supports margin resilience