AnalystScope equity researchCurrent company view

ORCL

Oracle Corporation

Information Technology / Software Infrastructure / Austin, TX

View printable snapshot

AnalystScope signal

Buy

Scheduled quote

$121

Base fair value

$168

Bear / base / bull

$140 / $168 / $190

Upside / downside

+38.8 upside

Confidence

Medium

Research updated Mar 17, 2026

Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.

Informational research only. Not personalized investment advice.

Investment summary

Current view and thesis

Oracle increasingly benefits from OCI backlog, database franchise durability, and higher cloud relevance, leaving room for upside as cloud infrastructure execution improves.

Fair value $168 vs. current $121 (+38.8 upside). Current base fair value is $168 versus $121, implying +38.8 upside.

Key drivers

OCI backlog conversion remains the main driver of incremental growth and multiple re-rating potential.

The core database and maintenance base continues to support durable cash flow.

Higher cloud relevance improves strategic positioning against a historically mature perception.

Key risks

Large contract timing can create uneven growth and cash-flow conversion across quarters.

Heavy capital intensity for OCI could pressure near-term free cash flow.

Leverage reduces flexibility if the cloud growth path proves less durable than expected.

What would change the view

Stronger OCI conversion with sustained margin support would further improve the rating case.

A weaker cloud delivery cadence would quickly reduce confidence in the current upside view.

More evidence that legacy database demand is softening would weigh on valuation support.

Valuation

Price, range, and method support

Base case $168 / +38.8 upside / medium confidence

Price vs fair value

+38.4%

Model-implied return

Scheduled quote

$121

Fair value

$168

Valuation method stack

Weighted fair value $168

Published method weights

DCF (Base)

$172 | 50%

NTM P/E Multiple

$168 | 30%

EV/EBITDA Cross-check

$160 | 20%

Case / method	Value	Weight / support
DCF (Base)	$172	50%
NTM P/E Multiple	$168	30%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check	$160	20%
Bear case	$140	Mixed
Base case	$168	Mixed
Bull case	$190	Mixed

Fundamental analysis

Reported evidence and normalized model base

Normalized annual basis: FY2025

Download reported financials CSV Download normalized financials CSV

Normalized figures are AnalystScope's annual valuation model base.

Normalized metric	Latest value	Growth / margin context
Revenue	$58.8B	+9.1% YoY
Operating income	$18.6B	31.6% margin
Net income	$11.3B	EPS proxy $3.99
Free cash flow	$18.7B	31.8% margin
EBITDA	$21.2B	36.1% margin
Net cash / (debt)	-$73.1B	-124.3% of revenue

Metric	Reported	AnalystScope normalized	Basis note
Revenue (TTM)	$67.4B	$58.8B	Model revenue smooths large OCI contract timing and legacy license volatility.
Operating Margin	30.6%	31.6%	Margin input normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending.
FCF (TTM)	($23.7B)	$18.7B	FCF input strips capex timing and working-capital noise around large customer deployments.
Net Cash / (Debt)	$31.3B	($73.1B)	Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage conservative despite recurring maintenance cash flows.

Fundamental snapshot

FY2025

Normalized annual model base

Revenue

+9.1% YoY

$58.8B

Op. margin

+1.2% pts

31.6%

FCF margin

+0.6% pts

31.8%

Revenue + margin trend

Annual normalized model-base history.

Revenue

2023

2024

2025

Operating margin

2023

2024

2025

AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.

Income statement

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	$50.0B	$53.9B	$58.8B
Gross Profit	$35.6B	$38.6B	$42.3B
Operating Income	$14.4B	$16.4B	$18.6B
EBITDA	$16.5B	$18.8B	$21.2B
Net Income	$8.2B	$9.9B	$11.3B

Balance sheet

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & Investments	$9.1B	$10.6B	$12.0B
Total Debt	$83.5B	$83.7B	$85.1B
Net Cash / (Debt)	($74.4B)	($73.1B)	($73.1B)
Total Assets	$129.0B	$137.0B	$146.0B
Total Liabilities	$111.2B	$121.6B	$133.4B
Shareholders' Equity	$17.8B	$15.4B	$12.6B

Cash flow

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	$18.1B	$20.0B	$22.3B
Depreciation & Amortization	$2.1B	$2.4B	$2.6B
Capital Expenditures	($2.8B)	($3.2B)	($3.6B)
Free Cash Flow	$15.3B	$16.8B	$18.7B

Model assumptions

Base-case inputs and sensitivity

Published AnalystScope assumptions; private edits do not change this base case.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

9.0%

±1.0% => ±$7/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: OCI backlog conversion remains the main driver of incremental growth and multiple re-rating potential.

Terminal Growth

2.5%

±0.5% => ±$6/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 9.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Oracle Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.

WACC

8.6%

±0.5% => ∓$8/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage supported by recurring support and database cash flow

Operating Margin (Year 5)

32.5%

±100 bps => ±$5/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (31.6%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending.

Sensitivity drivers

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

9.0%

±1.0% => ±$7/sh

Terminal Growth

2.5%

±0.5% => ±$6/sh

WACC

8.6%

±0.5% => ∓$8/sh

Operating Margin (Year 5)

32.5%

±100 bps => ±$5/sh

Confidence

Medium

Method outputs are tightly grouped at +7.1% dispersion.

Why the model view could be wrong

Large contract timing can create uneven growth and cash-flow conversion across quarters.

Heavy capital intensity for OCI could pressure near-term free cash flow.

Leverage reduces flexibility if the cloud growth path proves less durable than expected.

Private analysis

Test your own assumptions in Scenario Builder

Private scenarios remain separate from AnalystScope's published base case.

Open Scenario Builder

Private workspace

Scenario Builder

Private scenario sandbox

This is a private modelling layer, not the public AnalystScope base case or printable snapshot. It keeps the public base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates your scenario fair-value estimate immediately.

Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for ORCL. Base-case rationale remains in the public assumptions section above. Your scenario output reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the AnalystScope framework.

Editable assumptions

Adjust your scenario inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the public AnalystScope base case.

This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.

Matches the published AnalystScope base case.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

Public AnalystScope base case: 9.0% | ±1.0% => ±$7/sh

Allowed range: 3.0% to 15.0%

Terminal Growth

Public AnalystScope base case: 2.5% | ±0.5% => ±$6/sh

Allowed range: 1.0% to 4.0%

WACC

Public AnalystScope base case: 8.6% | ±0.5% => ∓$8/sh

Allowed range: 6.6% to 10.6%

Operating Margin (Year 5)

Public AnalystScope base case: 32.5% | ±100 bps => ±$5/sh

Allowed range: 24.5% to 40.5%

Saved private scenarios

Save up to 5 named scenarios for ORCL. These are your scenarios: they never overwrite the public AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.

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Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.

No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.

Published base case

Fair value

$168

Upside / Downside

+38.8 upside

Model signal

Buy

Published base-case output

Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.

Fair value

$168

$0/sh vs published base case

Upside / Downside

+38.8 upside

+0.0 pts vs published base case

Model signal

Buy

Unchanged versus the published base case.

Method movement inside the scenario

This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.

Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.

Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.

3 of 3 methods support model-native repricingModel-native bridge

Method	Published base	Edited scenario	Delta	How it moved / main drivers
DCF (Base) DCF-style \| 50% weight	$172	$172	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style \| 30% weight	$168	$168	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple \| 20% weight	$160	$160	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
Weighted fair value Published framework result \| Published framework result	$168	$168	+$0/sh	Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way.

Published base case vs private scenarios

Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.

Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.

Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.

Scenario	Revenue CAGR (5Y)	Terminal Growth	WACC	Op. Margin (Y5)	Fair Value	Upside / Downside	Model Signal	Delta vs Base	Action
AnalystScope base case Published Official AnalystScope anchor row.	9.0%	2.5%	8.6%	32.5%	$168	+38.8 upside	Buy	Published anchor

Supporting research

Quality, normalization, and monitoring evidence

Annual model base: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025

Thesis scorecard

Growth

Moderate

OCI and backlog support growth, though scale and timing remain less predictable than hyperscaler peers.

Profitability

Strong

Recurring support revenue and software economics continue to support attractive margins.

Balance sheet

Weak

Leverage remains material even with strong recurring cash generation.

Valuation

Strong

The current setup still leaves room for OCI execution upside.

Execution / Resilience

Moderate

Execution has improved, but cloud delivery cadence remains an important watchpoint.

Current source status

Quote: Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.

Reported fundamentals: Fundamentals refreshed 21 Jul 2026, 01:32 UTC. Fresh through 21 Jul 2026, 13:32 UTC.

Latest filing: 4 filed Jun 26, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 24, 2026. Filing refreshed Jul 21, 2026, 12:39 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 21, 2026, 12:39 PM UTC.

Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.

Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.

Operating and cash-flow trends

Model-base statements

Revenue growth (1Y)

+9.1%

Gross margin

71.9%

Operating margin

31.6%

Operating margin change vs prior FY

+1.2 pts

EBITDA margin

36.1%

EBITDA margin change vs prior FY

+1.2 pts

Operating income growth (1Y)

+13.4%

Net margin

19.2%

FCF margin

31.8%

FCF margin change vs prior FY

+0.6 pts

FCF growth (1Y)

+11.3%

Balance sheet quality

Model-base statements

Cash & investments

$12.0B

Total debt

$85.1B

Net cash / (debt)

Net debt $73.1B

Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue

Net debt 124.3% of revenue

Liabilities / assets

Stable

vs FY2024 (+2.6 pts)

91.4%

Cross-statement quality

Model-base statements

Gross-to-operating spread

40.3 pts

Operating cash flow / net income

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.0x)

2.0x

Operating cash flow / EBITDA

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.0x)

1.1x

Free cash flow / net income

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.0x)

1.7x

CapEx as % of revenue

Stable

vs FY2024 (+0.2 pts)

6.1%

CapEx as % of operating cash flow

Stable

vs FY2024 (+0.1 pts)

16.1%

CapEx / D&A

Stable

vs FY2024 (+0.1x)

1.4x

Cash & investments / total debt

Stable

vs FY2024 (+0.0x)

0.1x

Shareholders' equity as % of revenue

21.4%

Asset turnover

Stable

vs FY2024 (+0.0x)

0.4x

Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.

Adjustment focus

Large analyst adjustment

Cash flow | FCF (TTM) | +$42.4B / +179%

Revenue momentum

Stable

+9.1% latest 1Y growth

vs +7.8% prior 1Y

Operating margin trend

Improving

31.6% latest margin

+121 bps vs prior FY

FCF margin trend

Stable

31.8% latest FCF margin

+63 bps vs prior FY

Balance-sheet posture

Strengthening

Net debt 124.3% of revenue

vs Net debt 135.6% of revenue prior FY

How to read this

Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.

This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.

Why the model base differs

Oracle's normalization choices reduce OCI timing noise and make the thesis rely more on repeatable backlog conversion and margin progress than on any single large contract quarter.

Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.

Metric	Model base	Live reported	Variance vs reported	Adjustment size	Why lower / higher?
FCF (TTM)	$18.7B FY2025 model base	($23.7B) Live reported TTM	+$42.4B / +179%	Large analyst adjustment	Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest cash-flow drag is fully durable. It strips capex timing and working-capital noise around large customer deployments.
Net Cash / (Debt)	($73.1B) FY2025 model base	$31.3B Live reported balance sheet	-$104.4B / -155% of revenue	Large analyst adjustment	Model base is more conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure. It keeps leverage conservative despite recurring maintenance cash flows.
Revenue (TTM)	$58.8B FY2025 model base	$67.4B Live reported TTM	-$8.6B / -13%	Moderate adjustment	Model base is lower than live reported because the thesis does not carry the current revenue run-rate straight into the durable operating base. It smooths large OCI contract timing and legacy license volatility.
Operating Margin	31.6% FY2025 model base	30.6% Live reported margin	+1.0 pts	Close to reported	Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest reported margin pressure is the durable earnings base. It normalizes cloud mix shifts and launch-related infrastructure spending.

Near-term catalysts

OCI backlog conversion and capex commentary remain the most important near-term catalysts.

Any step-up in large enterprise or sovereign cloud wins can shift sentiment quickly.

Margin commentary around cloud scaling efficiency matters meaningfully for confidence.

What we are watching

Whether OCI growth translates into steadier revenue conversion rather than quarter-to-quarter lumpiness.

How efficiently Oracle scales capital intensity as larger deployments come online.

Any sign that the legacy database base is becoming less durable than the current model assumes.

Date	Event	Published rating	Note
Mar 17, 2026	Upgraded	Buy	Upgraded to Buy as OCI conversion and backlog durability improved the valuation range.
Jan 23, 2026	Reiterated	Hold	Stayed at Hold while OCI momentum improved but timing risk remained elevated.
Dec 4, 2025	New	Hold	Entered coverage with a Hold stance pending clearer OCI execution evidence.