Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
Netflix continues to benefit from subscription durability, pricing power, and a developing ad opportunity, but the current share price leaves less room for execution misses.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Hold signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $102 versus $97 fair value, implying -5.1 downside.
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$102
Fair value
$97
-5.1 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Apr 10, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC. Fresh through Apr 11, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC.
Filing reference
8-K filed Jun 5, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 4, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth remains healthy, though ad monetization and mature-market penetration still shape the next leg.
Profitability
StrongMargin structure and cash conversion continue to improve as scale deepens.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is improving, but the balance sheet is still less conservative than cash-rich peers.
Valuation
WeakThe shares already price in a lot of execution and monetization success.
Execution / Resilience
StrongGlobal scale and product execution remain clear strengths.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$111
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are supportive of the upside case.
Base case
$97
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$84
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
12.0%
±1.0% => ±$2.2/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Subscription resilience and pricing power continue to underpin revenue durability.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
±0.5% => ±$1.5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 12.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Netflix, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.9%
±0.5% => ∓$1.9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage declining with stronger cash conversion
Operating Margin (Year 5)
29.0%
±100 bps => ±$1.1/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (27.8%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes content amortization swings and quarter-specific release cadence.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For Netflix, normalization reduces content-timing distortion and makes the thesis lean more on durable subscriber economics and ad monetization than on any one release slate.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $45.2B | Live reported | $42.8B +15.1% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths content release timing and the current advertising ramp. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 29.5% | Live reported | 27.8% +200 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes content amortization swings and quarter-specific release cadence. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $9.5B | Live reported | $7.9B 18.5% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up content cash timing and other uneven release-related distortions. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($1.1B) | Live reported | ($5.6B) Leverage declining with stronger cash conversion Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage conservative even as cash conversion continues to improve. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Sell rating, with the latest note event recorded as Downgraded. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $102 versus a base-case fair value of $97, implying -5.1 downside.
Fair value $97 vs. current $102 (-5.1 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $93 to $99.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 27.8%, with +200 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($5.6B), with leverage declining with stronger cash conversion.
Key drivers
Subscription resilience and pricing power continue to underpin revenue durability.
Advertising remains the clearest incremental upside lever beyond the core subscription model.
Improving free cash flow supports both valuation and declining leverage.
Key risks
The current valuation leaves little room for slower ad monetization or weaker engagement.
Content efficiency could deteriorate if hit rates soften or competitive intensity rises.
Mature-market penetration may make future growth more dependent on flawless execution.
What would change our view
Clearer evidence of durable ad monetization would improve the current stance.
Sustained free-cash-flow outperformance could offset some valuation pressure.
A weaker content slate or slower paid-sharing benefits would likely reinforce the downside case.
Near-term catalysts
Ad-tier monetization and engagement trends remain the nearest catalysts for estimate revisions.
Margin commentary tied to content amortization can move the market's confidence quickly.
Subscriber and churn data across mature markets still matter for the long-term growth narrative.
What we are watching
Whether advertising matures into a larger, more predictable contributor to revenue growth.
How content efficiency trends hold up as Netflix scales globally.
Any sign that pricing power is weakening in mature, highly penetrated markets.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 19, 2026.
Report updated
Mar 19, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
Downgraded
Published Mar 19, 2026
Current published rating
Sell
Published Mar 19, 2026
Analyst note
Current work is centered on ad monetization quality, content efficiency, and whether cash conversion can justify the premium multiple.
What changed in the report
Mar 19, 2026
Lowered multiple support after valuation rerating
Impact: -2.0% fair value
Mar 11, 2026
Raised ad monetization contribution modestly
Impact: +0.6% EPS outlook
Mar 5, 2026
Maintained stronger free-cash-flow conversion assumptions
Impact: Supports downside floor
Report timeline
Mar 19, 2026
Downgraded to Sell as valuation ran well ahead of our base-case cash-flow assumptions.
Jan 29, 2026
Maintained Hold while operating trends improved but upside remained limited.
Dec 11, 2025
Initiated coverage with a balanced stance on growth durability versus valuation.