NFLX
Netflix, Inc.
Netflix continues to benefit from subscription durability, pricing power, and a developing ad opportunity, but the current share price leaves less room for execution misses.
Live company workspace
This page is the current view. It combines the latest price context, filing status, reported fundamentals, refreshed normalized statements, and the current model output. Published actions and ratings stay here as reference, while the report page preserves the point-in-time note.
Current model signal
Buy
Confidence: Low
Implied return: +995.6 upside
Fair value $1,081 vs. current $99 (+995.6 upside).
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Ticker
NFLX
Model signal
Buy
Confidence
Low
Fair value
$1,081
Upside / Downside
+995.6 upside
Jump to section
Live investment view
Base case stance: Buy with low confidence as shares trade at $99 versus $1,081 fair value, implying +995.6 upside. This workspace updates with the latest live inputs, while the published report remains a point-in-time note.
Current model signal
Buy
Latest analyst action
Downgraded
Published Mar 19, 2026
Latest published rating
Sell
Published Mar 19, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Current price data
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 4:01 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 4:06 AM UTC.
Latest filing / report
4 filed Apr 3, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 2, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 3, 2026, 11:28 PM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC.
Open filing sourceReported fundamentals
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Last refreshed 3 Apr 2026, 21:01 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 09:01 UTC.
Current model signal
Buy
Confidence
Low
Current price
$99
Fair value
$1,081
Upside / Downside
+995.6 upside
Top drivers
Subscription resilience and pricing power continue to underpin revenue durability.
Advertising remains the clearest incremental upside lever beyond the core subscription model.
Top risks
The current valuation leaves little room for slower ad monetization or weaker engagement.
Content efficiency could deteriorate if hit rates soften or competitive intensity rises.
Sector / Industry
Communication Services
Entertainment
Headquarters
Los Gatos, CA
Market Cap
$470B
Current / Fair Value
$99 / $1,081
Upside / Downside
+995.6 upside
Data status
Last updated: Mar 20, 2026
Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.
Coverage is currently limited to ten companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, and NFLX.
Normalized financial summary
Curated normalized annual basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Revenue (Latest FY)
FY2025 | +15.9% vs prior FY
$45.2B
Operating Margin
+276 bps vs prior FY
29.4%
FCF (Latest FY)
21.0% margin | FY2025
$9.5B
Net Cash / (Debt)
Leverage declining with stronger cash conversion
($4.4B)
Key ratios
EV / NTM EBITDA
Sector 13.7x
22.1x
P / NTM EPS
Sector 21.5x
35.4x
ROIC
Sector 12.8%
20.1%
Rule of 40
Healthy
43%
Base-case assumptions
These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
12.0%
±1.0% => ±$22/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest normalized FY revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Subscription resilience and pricing power continue to underpin revenue durability.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
±0.5% => ±$15/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 12.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Netflix, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.9%
±0.5% => ∓$19/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage declining with stronger cash conversion
Operating Margin (Year 5)
29.0%
±100 bps => ±$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's normalized operating margin (29.4%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes content amortization swings and quarter-specific release cadence.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Scenario workbench
Analyst workbench
This is a local edited scenario, not the published AnalystScope base case or report view. It keeps the published base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates the fair-value estimate immediately.
Base-case rationale remains in the assumptions section above. This first slice uses the published sensitivities to estimate how the edited scenario changes fair value while the cross-check methods remain the published reference point.
Editable assumptions
Adjust the inputs within a reasonable range. Edits stay local to this browser session.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Published base case: 12.0% | ±1.0% => ±$22/sh
Range: 6.0% to 18.0%
Terminal Growth
Published base case: 2.5% | ±0.5% => ±$15/sh
Range: 1.0% to 4.0%
WACC
Published base case: 8.9% | ±0.5% => ∓$19/sh
Range: 6.9% to 10.9%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Published base case: 29.0% | ±100 bps => ±$11/sh
Range: 21.0% to 37.0%
Published base case
Fair value
$1,081
Upside / Downside
+995.6 upside
Model signal
Buy
Edited scenario
Fair value
$1,081
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
+995.7 upside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Buy
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Normalized financial statements
Curated normalized annual statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $33.7B | $39.0B | $45.2B |
| Gross Profit | $13.9B | $16.4B | $19.3B |
| Operating Income | $6.9B | $10.4B | $13.3B |
| EBITDA | $7.3B | $10.7B | $13.6B |
| Net Income | $5.4B | $8.7B | $11.0B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $7.1B | $9.6B | $9.1B |
| Total Debt | $14.1B | $13.8B | $13.5B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($7.0B) | ($4.2B) | ($4.4B) |
| Total Assets | $48.7B | $53.6B | $55.6B |
| Total Liabilities | $28.1B | $28.9B | $29.0B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $20.6B | $24.7B | $26.6B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $7.3B | $7.4B | $10.2B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $400.0M | $300.0M | $300.0M |
| Capital Expenditures | ($300.0M) | ($400.0M) | ($700.0M) |
| Free Cash Flow | $7.0B | $7.0B | $9.5B |
Model inputs vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the live reported fundamentals versus the latest normalized annual inputs still used in the current public analysis model.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Last refreshed 3 Apr 2026, 21:01 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 09:01 UTC.
Normalization impact on the thesis
For Netflix, normalization reduces content-timing distortion and makes the thesis lean more on durable subscriber economics and ad monetization than on any one release slate.
Statement basis diagnostics
Latest normalized basis FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.
Income statement
Revenue
FY2025 $45.2B vs reported TTM $45.2B (+0.0%)
Operating margin
FY2025 29.4% vs reported 29.5% (-0.1 pts)
Cash flow
Free cash flow
FY2025 $9.5B vs reported TTM $9.5B (+0.4%)
FCF margin
FY2025 21.0% vs reported 20.9% (+0.1 pts)
Balance sheet
Net cash / (debt)
FY2025 Net debt $4.4B vs reported Net debt $4.4B
| Metric | Reported | Status | Model input | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $45.2B | Live reported | $45.2B +15.9% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths content release timing and the current advertising ramp. | Model / normalized |
| Operating Margin | 29.5% | Live reported | 29.4% +276 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes content amortization swings and quarter-specific release cadence. | Model / normalized |
| FCF (TTM) | $9.5B | Live reported | $9.5B 21.0% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up content cash timing and other uneven release-related distortions. | Model / normalized |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($4.4B) | Live reported | ($4.4B) Leverage declining with stronger cash conversion Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage conservative even as cash conversion continues to improve. | Model / normalized |
Normalization review
For Netflix, normalization reduces content-timing distortion and makes the thesis lean more on durable subscriber economics and ad monetization than on any one release slate.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable drift first.
| Metric | Latest normalized basis | Latest live reported | Delta / variance | Materiality | Normalization rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Margin | 29.4% FY2025 normalized | 29.5% Live reported margin | -0.1 pts | In band | Margin input normalizes content amortization swings and quarter-specific release cadence. |
Revenue (TTM) | $45.2B FY2025 normalized | $45.2B Live reported TTM | +$0.0 / +0.0% | In band | Model revenue smooths content release timing and the current advertising ramp. |
FCF (TTM) | $9.5B FY2025 normalized | $9.5B Live reported TTM | +$0.0 / +0.0% | In band | FCF input cleans up content cash timing and other uneven release-related distortions. |
Net Cash / (Debt) | ($4.4B) FY2025 normalized | ($4.4B) Live reported balance sheet | +$0.0 / +0.0% of revenue | In band | Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage conservative even as cash conversion continues to improve. |
Ratios + trends
Normalized annual income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+15.9%
Gross margin
42.7%
Operating margin
29.4%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+2.8 pts
EBITDA margin
30.1%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+2.7 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+27.9%
Net margin
24.3%
FCF margin
21.0%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+3.1 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+35.7%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$9.1B
Total debt
$13.5B
Net cash / (debt)
Net debt $4.4B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net debt 9.7% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (-1.8 pts)
52.2%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
13.3 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
0.9x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
0.8x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
0.9x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+0.5 pts)
1.5%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (+1.5 pts)
6.9%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+1.0x)
2.3x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.7x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
58.8%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
0.8x
Financial diagnostics
Compact normalized-basis diagnostics for analyst triage.
Revenue momentum
Stable+15.9% latest 1Y growth
vs +15.7% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Improving29.4% latest margin
+276 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Improving21.0% latest FCF margin
+307 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StableNet debt 9.7% of revenue
vs Net debt 10.8% of revenue prior FY
Thesis scorecard
Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.
Growth
ModerateGrowth remains healthy, though ad monetization and mature-market penetration still shape the next leg.
Profitability
StrongMargin structure and cash conversion continue to improve as scale deepens.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is improving, but the balance sheet is still less conservative than cash-rich peers.
Valuation
WeakThe shares already price in a lot of execution and monetization success.
Execution / Resilience
StrongGlobal scale and product execution remain clear strengths.
Key drivers
Subscription resilience and pricing power continue to underpin revenue durability.
Advertising remains the clearest incremental upside lever beyond the core subscription model.
Improving free cash flow supports both valuation and declining leverage.
Key risks
The current valuation leaves little room for slower ad monetization or weaker engagement.
Content efficiency could deteriorate if hit rates soften or competitive intensity rises.
Mature-market penetration may make future growth more dependent on flawless execution.
What would change our view
Clearer evidence of durable ad monetization would improve the current stance.
Sustained free-cash-flow outperformance could offset some valuation pressure.
A weaker content slate or slower paid-sharing benefits would likely reinforce the downside case.
Near-term catalysts
Ad-tier monetization and engagement trends remain the nearest catalysts for estimate revisions.
Margin commentary tied to content amortization can move the market's confidence quickly.
Subscriber and churn data across mature markets still matter for the long-term growth narrative.
What we are watching
Whether advertising matures into a larger, more predictable contributor to revenue growth.
How content efficiency trends hold up as Netflix scales globally.
Any sign that pricing power is weakening in mature, highly penetrated markets.
Coverage metadata
Last updated
Mar 19, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest analyst action
Downgraded
Mar 19, 2026
Latest published rating
Sell
Mar 19, 2026
Analyst note
Current work is centered on ad monetization quality, content efficiency, and whether cash conversion can justify the premium multiple.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Current price source
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 4:01 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 4:06 AM UTC.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Last refreshed 3 Apr 2026, 21:01 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 09:01 UTC.
Latest filing source
SEC EDGAR submissions API
4 filed Apr 3, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 2, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 3, 2026, 11:28 PM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC.
Open filing sourceCoverage timeline
Timeline events show published analyst actions and ratings. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 19, 2026
Downgraded to Sell as valuation ran well ahead of our base-case cash-flow assumptions.
Jan 29, 2026
Maintained Hold while operating trends improved but upside remained limited.
Dec 11, 2025
Initiated coverage with a balanced stance on growth durability versus valuation.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$1,238
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are supportive of the upside case.
Base case
$1,081
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$942
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Why this rating
The stock currently trades at $99 versus a base-case fair value of $1,081, implying +995.6 upside. That supports a Buy rating with Low confidence under the current model.
Current price
$99
Fair value
$1,081
Upside / Downside
+995.6 upside
Model signal / Confidence
Buy / Low
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods show a wider range from $965 to $1,191, which tempers conviction.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 29.4%, with +276 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning currently reflects net debt of ($4.4B), with leverage declining with stronger cash conversion.
Valuation methods
| Method | Implied Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $1,191 | 45% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $965 | 35% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $1,037 | 20% |
Buy / Hold / Sell output
Current model recommendation
Buy
Price: $99
Fair value: $1,081
Implied upside / downside: +995.6 upside
Latest published rating: Sell on Mar 19, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.
What changed section
2026-03-19
Lowered multiple support after valuation rerating
Impact: -2.0% fair value
2026-03-11
Raised ad monetization contribution modestly
Impact: +0.6% EPS outlook
2026-03-05
Maintained stronger free-cash-flow conversion assumptions
Impact: Supports downside floor