NFLX
Netflix, Inc.
Netflix continues to benefit from subscription durability, pricing power, and a developing ad opportunity, but the current share price leaves less room for execution misses.
Live company workspace
This page is the active working surface. It combines the latest price context, filing status, reported fundamentals, refreshed model-base statements, current valuation output, and the scenario workbench. The report page stays separate as the published archival report.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 19, 2026.
Current model signal
Hold
Confidence: Medium
Implied return: -5.1 downside
Fair value $97 vs. current $102 (-5.1 downside).
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live investment view
Base case stance: Hold with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $102 versus $97 fair value, implying -5.1 downside. This workspace updates with the latest daily scheduled quote and reported inputs, while the published report remains a point-in-time note.
Price basis warning
Current price-dependent output is using a stale scheduled quote. Fair value, upside / downside, and the model signal are still shown, but they should be read with caution until a fresher daily scheduled quote refresh is available.
Current model signal
Hold
Latest note event
Downgraded
Published Mar 19, 2026
Current published rating
Sell
Published Mar 19, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Daily scheduled refresh
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Apr 10, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC. Fresh through Apr 11, 2026, 6:26 PM UTC.
Filing refreshed
8-K filed Jun 5, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 4, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceFundamentals refreshed
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Current model signal
Hold
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$102
Fair value
$97
Upside / Downside
-5.1 downside
Top drivers
Subscription resilience and pricing power continue to underpin revenue durability.
Advertising remains the clearest incremental upside lever beyond the core subscription model.
Top risks
The current valuation leaves little room for slower ad monetization or weaker engagement.
Content efficiency could deteriorate if hit rates soften or competitive intensity rises.
Sector / Industry
Communication Services
Entertainment
Headquarters
Los Gatos, CA
Market Cap
$470B
Current / Fair Value
$102 / $97
Upside / Downside
-5.1 downside
Coverage snapshot
Report updated: Apr 10, 2026
Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.
Coverage currently spans twenty-eight companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, NFLX, V, MA, WMT, PG, JNJ, ADBE, CSCO, TXN, COST, KO, HD, PEP, QCOM, INTU, MCD, ADP, ABT, and IBM.
Model-base financial summary
Current annual model-base range: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Revenue (Latest FY)
FY2025 | +15.1% vs prior FY
$42.8B
Operating Margin
+200 bps vs prior FY
27.8%
FCF (Latest FY)
18.5% margin | FY2025
$7.9B
Net Cash / (Debt)
Leverage declining with stronger cash conversion
($5.6B)
Key ratios
EV / NTM EBITDA
Sector 13.7x
22.1x
P / NTM EPS
Sector 21.5x
35.4x
ROIC
Sector 12.8%
20.1%
Rule of 40
Healthy
43%
Base-case assumptions
These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
12.0%
±1.0% => ±$2.2/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Subscription resilience and pricing power continue to underpin revenue durability.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
±0.5% => ±$1.5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 12.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Netflix, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.9%
±0.5% => ∓$1.9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage declining with stronger cash conversion
Operating Margin (Year 5)
29.0%
±100 bps => ±$1.1/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (27.8%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes content amortization swings and quarter-specific release cadence.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Scenario workbench
Analyst workbench
This is a private working layer, not the published AnalystScope base case or report view. It keeps the published base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates the fair-value estimate immediately.
Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for NFLX. Base-case rationale remains in the assumptions section above. Scenario output now reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the published AnalystScope framework.
Editable assumptions
Adjust the inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the published base case.
This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.
Matches the published AnalystScope base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Published base case: 12.0% | ±1.0% => ±$2.2/sh
Allowed range: 6.0% to 18.0%
Terminal Growth
Published base case: 2.5% | ±0.5% => ±$1.5/sh
Allowed range: 1.0% to 4.0%
WACC
Published base case: 8.9% | ±0.5% => ∓$1.9/sh
Allowed range: 6.9% to 10.9%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Published base case: 29.0% | ±100 bps => ±$1.1/sh
Allowed range: 21.0% to 37.0%
Private saved scenarios
Save up to 5 named scenarios for NFLX. They never overwrite the published AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.
Checking private workspace session...
Private scenario note
Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.
0 / 280
Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.
No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.
Published base case
Fair value
$97
Upside / Downside
-5.1 downside
Model signal
Hold
Published base-case output
Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.
Fair value
$97
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
-5.1 downside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Hold
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Method movement inside the scenario
This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.
Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.
Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.
| Method | Published base | Edited scenario | Delta | How it moved / main drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF (Base) DCF-style | 45% weight | $99 | $99 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style | 35% weight | $97 | $97 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple | 20% weight | $93 | $93 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Weighted fair value Published framework result | Published framework result | $97 | $97 | +$0/sh | Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way. |
Published base case vs private scenarios
Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.
Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.
Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR (5Y) | Terminal Growth | WACC | Op. Margin (Y5) | Fair Value | Upside / Downside | Model Signal | Delta vs Base | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AnalystScope base case PublishedOfficial AnalystScope anchor row. | 12.0% | 2.5% | 8.9% | 29.0% | $97 | -5.1 downside | Hold | Published anchor |
Model-base financial statements
AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $33.7B | $37.2B | $42.8B |
| Gross Profit | $13.9B | $15.6B | $18.2B |
| Operating Income | $7.8B | $9.6B | $11.9B |
| EBITDA | $8.8B | $10.7B | $13.2B |
| Net Income | $5.7B | $7.0B | $8.8B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $6.2B | $6.5B | $7.0B |
| Total Debt | $13.4B | $13.0B | $12.6B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($7.2B) | ($6.5B) | ($5.6B) |
| Total Assets | $49.0B | $53.0B | $58.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $28.0B | $30.4B | $33.8B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $21.0B | $22.6B | $24.2B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $7.4B | $8.7B | $10.5B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.3B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($1.9B) | ($2.1B) | ($2.6B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.5B | $6.6B | $7.9B |
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For Netflix, normalization reduces content-timing distortion and makes the thesis lean more on durable subscriber economics and ad monetization than on any one release slate.
Model-base diagnostics
Latest model base FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.
Income statement
Revenue
FY2025 $42.8B vs reported TTM $45.2B (-5.3%)
Operating margin
FY2025 27.8% vs reported 29.5% (-1.7 pts)
Cash flow
Free cash flow
FY2025 $7.9B vs reported TTM $9.5B (-16.5%)
FCF margin
FY2025 18.5% vs reported 20.9% (-2.5 pts)
Balance sheet
Net cash / (debt)
FY2025 Net debt $5.6B vs reported Net debt $1.1B
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $45.2B | Live reported | $42.8B +15.1% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths content release timing and the current advertising ramp. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 29.5% | Live reported | 27.8% +200 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes content amortization swings and quarter-specific release cadence. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $9.5B | Live reported | $7.9B 18.5% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up content cash timing and other uneven release-related distortions. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($1.1B) | Live reported | ($5.6B) Leverage declining with stronger cash conversion Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage conservative even as cash conversion continues to improve. | Model base |
Reported vs durable model base
How to read this
Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.
This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.
Why the model base differs
For Netflix, normalization reduces content-timing distortion and makes the thesis lean more on durable subscriber economics and ad monetization than on any one release slate.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.
| Metric | Model base | Live reported | Variance vs reported | Adjustment size | Why lower / higher? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF (TTM) | $7.9B FY2025 model base | $9.5B Live reported TTM | -$1.6B / -17% | Moderate adjustment | Model base is lower than live reported because cash generation is being smoothed for timing effects rather than taken at face value. It cleans up content cash timing and other uneven release-related distortions. |
Net Cash / (Debt) | ($5.6B) FY2025 model base | ($1.1B) Live reported balance sheet | -$4.5B / -10% of revenue | Moderate adjustment | Model base is more conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure. It keeps leverage conservative even as cash conversion continues to improve. |
Revenue (TTM) | $42.8B FY2025 model base | $45.2B Live reported TTM | -$2.4B / -5% | Close to reported | Model base is lower than live reported because the thesis does not carry the current revenue run-rate straight into the durable operating base. It smooths content release timing and the current advertising ramp. |
Operating Margin | 27.8% FY2025 model base | 29.5% Live reported margin | -1.7 pts | Close to reported | Model base is lower than live reported because current margin strength is not being treated as a permanent through-cycle outcome. It normalizes content amortization swings and quarter-specific release cadence. |
Ratios + trends
Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+15.1%
Gross margin
42.5%
Operating margin
27.8%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+2.0 pts
EBITDA margin
30.8%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+2.1 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+24.0%
Net margin
20.6%
FCF margin
18.5%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+0.7 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+19.7%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$7.0B
Total debt
$12.6B
Net cash / (debt)
Net debt $5.6B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net debt 13.1% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (+0.9 pts)
58.3%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
14.7 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.2x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.8x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.9x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+0.4 pts)
6.1%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (+0.6 pts)
24.8%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
2.0x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
0.6x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
56.5%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.7x
Financial diagnostics
Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.
Adjustment focus
Moderate adjustmentCash flow | FCF (TTM) | -$1.6B / -17%
Revenue momentum
Improving+15.1% latest 1Y growth
vs +10.4% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Improving27.8% latest margin
+200 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Stable18.5% latest FCF margin
+72 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StrengtheningNet debt 13.1% of revenue
vs Net debt 17.5% of revenue prior FY
Thesis scorecard
Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.
Growth
ModerateGrowth remains healthy, though ad monetization and mature-market penetration still shape the next leg.
Profitability
StrongMargin structure and cash conversion continue to improve as scale deepens.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is improving, but the balance sheet is still less conservative than cash-rich peers.
Valuation
WeakThe shares already price in a lot of execution and monetization success.
Execution / Resilience
StrongGlobal scale and product execution remain clear strengths.
Key drivers
Subscription resilience and pricing power continue to underpin revenue durability.
Advertising remains the clearest incremental upside lever beyond the core subscription model.
Improving free cash flow supports both valuation and declining leverage.
Key risks
The current valuation leaves little room for slower ad monetization or weaker engagement.
Content efficiency could deteriorate if hit rates soften or competitive intensity rises.
Mature-market penetration may make future growth more dependent on flawless execution.
What would change our view
Clearer evidence of durable ad monetization would improve the current stance.
Sustained free-cash-flow outperformance could offset some valuation pressure.
A weaker content slate or slower paid-sharing benefits would likely reinforce the downside case.
Near-term catalysts
Ad-tier monetization and engagement trends remain the nearest catalysts for estimate revisions.
Margin commentary tied to content amortization can move the market's confidence quickly.
Subscriber and churn data across mature markets still matter for the long-term growth narrative.
What we are watching
Whether advertising matures into a larger, more predictable contributor to revenue growth.
How content efficiency trends hold up as Netflix scales globally.
Any sign that pricing power is weakening in mature, highly penetrated markets.
Coverage metadata
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 19, 2026.
Report updated
Mar 19, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
Downgraded
Mar 19, 2026
Current published rating
Sell
Mar 19, 2026
Analyst note
Current work is centered on ad monetization quality, content efficiency, and whether cash conversion can justify the premium multiple.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Coverage timeline
Timeline events show published note events and the rating that followed each event. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 19, 2026
Downgraded to Sell as valuation ran well ahead of our base-case cash-flow assumptions.
Jan 29, 2026
Maintained Hold while operating trends improved but upside remained limited.
Dec 11, 2025
Initiated coverage with a balanced stance on growth durability versus valuation.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$111
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are supportive of the upside case.
Base case
$97
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$84
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Why this rating
The stock is currently being evaluated against $102 versus a base-case fair value of $97, implying -5.1 downside. That supports a Hold rating with Medium confidence under the current model.
Stale scheduled quote
$102
Fair value
$97
Upside / Downside
-5.1 downside
Model signal / Confidence
Hold / Medium
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $93 to $99.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 27.8%, with +200 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning currently reflects net debt of ($5.6B), with leverage declining with stronger cash conversion.
Valuation methods
| Method | Implied Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $99 | 45% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $97 | 35% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $93 | 20% |
Buy / Hold / Sell output
Current model recommendation
Hold
Price: $102
Fair value: $97
Implied upside / downside: -5.1 downside
Current published rating: Sell on Mar 19, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.
What changed section
2026-03-19
Lowered multiple support after valuation rerating
Impact: -2.0% fair value
2026-03-11
Raised ad monetization contribution modestly
Impact: +0.6% EPS outlook
2026-03-05
Maintained stronger free-cash-flow conversion assumptions
Impact: Supports downside floor