AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
Consumer Discretionary / Broadline Retail & Cloud Infrastructure / Seattle, WA
AnalystScope signal
Hold
Scheduled quote
$250
Base fair value
$231
Bear / base / bull
$185 / $231 / $272
Upside / downside
-7.6 downside
Confidence
Low
Research updated Mar 15, 2026
Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.
Informational research only. Not personalized investment advice.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Investment summary
Current view and thesis
Amazon continues to compound through AWS, advertising, and retail efficiency gains, with margin expansion still not fully reflected in current valuation assumptions.
Fair value $231 vs. current $250 (-7.6 downside). Current base fair value is $231 versus $250, implying -7.6 downside.
Key drivers
AWS remains the core valuation driver and the largest source of incremental profit growth.
Advertising and retail efficiency gains continue to improve consolidated margins.
Scale advantages still support long-duration reinvestment and share capture.
Key risks
AWS growth could soften if enterprise optimization persists longer than expected.
Retail margin gains may prove less durable if fulfillment or wage costs reaccelerate.
Execution missteps in a lower-margin retail mix would pressure consolidated returns.
What would change the view
Stronger AWS backlog conversion would improve the current fair value range.
A stall in retail efficiency gains would reduce confidence in the margin story.
More durable advertising contribution would make the upside case more compelling.
Valuation
Price, range, and method support
Base case $231 / -7.6 downside / low confidence
Price vs fair value
-7.6%
Model-implied return
Scheduled quote
$250
Fair value
$231
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $231
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$239 | 50%
NTM EBIT Multiple
$226 | 30%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$220 | 20%
| Case / method | Value | Weight / support |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $239 | 50% |
| NTM EBIT Multiple | $226 | 30% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $220 | 20% |
| Bear case | $185 | Mixed |
| Base case | $231 | Mixed |
| Bull case | $272 | Mixed |
Fundamental analysis
Reported evidence and normalized model base
Normalized annual basis: FY2025
Normalized figures are AnalystScope's annual valuation model base.
| Normalized metric | Latest value | Growth / margin context |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $661.6B | +11.0% YoY |
| Operating income | $70.8B | 10.7% margin |
| Net income | $47.0B | EPS proxy $4.86 |
| Free cash flow | $44.9B | 6.8% margin |
| EBITDA | $111.8B | 16.9% margin |
| Net cash / (debt) | -$22.4B | -3.4% of revenue |
| Metric | Reported | AnalystScope normalized | Basis note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $716.9B | $661.6B | Model revenue smooths retail calendar effects and the AWS optimization-to-reacceleration transition. |
| Operating Margin | 11.2% | 10.7% | Margin input adjusts for retail mix volatility and uses a steadier AWS margin path. |
| FCF (TTM) | $7.7B | $44.9B | FCF input cleans up lease, capex, and working-capital timing effects in the reported cash flows. |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($20.1B) | ($22.4B) | Balance-sheet treatment reflects debt and lease obligations conservatively against available cash. |
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+11.0% YoY
$661.6B
Op. margin
+2.2% pts
10.7%
FCF margin
+0.3% pts
6.8%
Revenue + margin trend
Annual normalized model-base history.
Revenue
Operating margin
AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $514.0B | $596.0B | $661.6B |
| Gross Profit | $241.6B | $286.7B | $321.5B |
| Operating Income | $26.2B | $50.7B | $70.8B |
| EBITDA | $57.0B | $87.1B | $111.8B |
| Net Income | $14.4B | $37.0B | $47.0B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $86.8B | $94.1B | $101.0B |
| Total Debt | $132.4B | $128.6B | $123.4B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($45.6B) | ($34.5B) | ($22.4B) |
| Total Assets | $527.0B | $590.0B | $655.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $325.7B | $360.0B | $394.5B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $201.3B | $230.0B | $260.5B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $62.7B | $79.9B | $93.9B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $30.8B | $36.4B | $41.0B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($37.5B) | ($41.1B) | ($49.0B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $25.2B | $38.8B | $44.9B |
Model assumptions
Base-case inputs and sensitivity
Published AnalystScope assumptions; private edits do not change this base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
9.5%
±1.0% => ±$13/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: AWS remains the core valuation driver and the largest source of incremental profit growth.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 9.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Amazon.com, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.7%
±0.5% => ∓$15/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage manageable against AWS cash flow
Operating Margin (Year 5)
11.5%
±100 bps => ±$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (10.7%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input adjusts for retail mix volatility and uses a steadier AWS margin path.
Sensitivity drivers
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
9.5%
±1.0% => ±$13/sh
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$11/sh
WACC
8.7%
±0.5% => ∓$15/sh
Operating Margin (Year 5)
11.5%
±100 bps => ±$10/sh
Confidence
Low
Method outputs show moderate dispersion of +8.2%.
Why the model view could be wrong
AWS growth could soften if enterprise optimization persists longer than expected.
Retail margin gains may prove less durable if fulfillment or wage costs reaccelerate.
Execution missteps in a lower-margin retail mix would pressure consolidated returns.
Private analysis
Test your own assumptions in Scenario Builder
Private scenarios remain separate from AnalystScope's published base case.
Private workspace
Scenario Builder
Private scenario sandbox
This is a private modelling layer, not the public AnalystScope base case or printable snapshot. It keeps the public base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates your scenario fair-value estimate immediately.
Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for AMZN. Base-case rationale remains in the public assumptions section above. Your scenario output reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the AnalystScope framework.
Editable assumptions
Adjust your scenario inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the public AnalystScope base case.
This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.
Matches the published AnalystScope base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Public AnalystScope base case: 9.5% | ±1.0% => ±$13/sh
Allowed range: 3.5% to 15.5%
Terminal Growth
Public AnalystScope base case: 3.0% | ±0.5% => ±$11/sh
Allowed range: 1.5% to 4.5%
WACC
Public AnalystScope base case: 8.7% | ±0.5% => ∓$15/sh
Allowed range: 6.7% to 10.7%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Public AnalystScope base case: 11.5% | ±100 bps => ±$10/sh
Allowed range: 3.5% to 19.5%
Saved private scenarios
Save up to 5 named scenarios for AMZN. These are your scenarios: they never overwrite the public AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.
Checking private workspace session...
Private scenario note
Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.
0 / 280
Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.
No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.
Published base case
Fair value
$231
Upside / Downside
-7.6 downside
Model signal
Hold
Published base-case output
Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.
Fair value
$231
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
-7.6 downside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Hold
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Method movement inside the scenario
This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.
Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.
Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.
| Method | Published base | Edited scenario | Delta | How it moved / main drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF (Base) DCF-style | 50% weight | $239 | $239 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
NTM EBIT Multiple EV-based multiple | 30% weight | $226 | $226 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple | 20% weight | $220 | $220 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Weighted fair value Published framework result | Published framework result | $231 | $231 | +$0/sh | Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way. |
Published base case vs private scenarios
Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.
Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.
Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR (5Y) | Terminal Growth | WACC | Op. Margin (Y5) | Fair Value | Upside / Downside | Model Signal | Delta vs Base | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AnalystScope base case PublishedOfficial AnalystScope anchor row. | 9.5% | 3.0% | 8.7% | 11.5% | $231 | -7.6 downside | Hold | Published anchor |
Supporting research
Quality, normalization, and monitoring evidence
Annual model base: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateAWS and advertising support growth, though the pace is less linear than prior cycles.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are improving, but retail mix still caps consolidated profitability.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is manageable, though less conservative than other mega-cap peers.
Valuation
StrongThe current setup still leaves room for margin normalization upside.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution is improving, but retail complexity keeps resilience more mixed.
Current source status
Quote: Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.
Reported fundamentals: Fundamentals refreshed 21 Jul 2026, 00:39 UTC. Fresh through 21 Jul 2026, 12:39 UTC.
Latest filing: 8-K filed Jul 9, 2026 | Reporting period Jul 9, 2026. Filing refreshed Jul 21, 2026, 1:32 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 21, 2026, 1:32 PM UTC.
Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+11.0%
Gross margin
48.6%
Operating margin
10.7%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+2.2 pts
EBITDA margin
16.9%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+2.3 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+39.6%
Net margin
7.1%
FCF margin
6.8%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+0.3 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+15.7%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$101.0B
Total debt
$123.4B
Net cash / (debt)
Net debt $22.4B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net debt 3.4% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (-0.8 pts)
60.2%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
37.9 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.2x)
2.0x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (-0.1x)
0.8x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.1x)
1.0x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+0.5 pts)
7.4%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (+0.7 pts)
52.2%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
1.2x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.1x)
0.8x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
39.4%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.0x
Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.
Adjustment focus
Large analyst adjustmentCash flow | FCF (TTM) | +$37.2B / +483%
Revenue momentum
Weakening+11.0% latest 1Y growth
vs +16.0% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Improving10.7% latest margin
+219 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Stable6.8% latest FCF margin
+28 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StableNet debt 3.4% of revenue
vs Net debt 5.8% of revenue prior FY
How to read this
Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.
This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.
Why the model base differs
Amazon's normalization choices smooth retail and AWS volatility, making the thesis rely more on structural cash-flow and margin improvement than on noisy reported quarters.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.
| Metric | Model base | Live reported | Variance vs reported | Adjustment size | Why lower / higher? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF (TTM) | $44.9B FY2025 model base | $7.7B Live reported TTM | +$37.2B / +483% | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest cash-flow drag is fully durable. It cleans up lease, capex, and working-capital timing effects in the reported cash flows. |
Revenue (TTM) | $661.6B FY2025 model base | $716.9B Live reported TTM | -$55.3B / -8% | Close to reported | Model base is lower than live reported because the thesis does not carry the current revenue run-rate straight into the durable operating base. It smooths retail calendar effects and the AWS optimization-to-reacceleration transition. |
Operating Margin | 10.7% FY2025 model base | 11.2% Live reported margin | -0.5 pts | Close to reported | Model base is lower than live reported because current margin strength is not being treated as a permanent through-cycle outcome. It adjusts for retail mix volatility and uses a steadier AWS margin path. |
Net Cash / (Debt) | ($22.4B) FY2025 model base | ($20.1B) Live reported balance sheet | -$2.3B / 0% of revenue | Close to reported | Model base is more conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure. It reflects debt and lease obligations conservatively against available cash. |
Near-term catalysts
AWS backlog conversion and margin commentary remain the key near-term catalysts.
Retail fulfillment efficiency and advertising growth updates can move the earnings bridge quickly.
Any shift in capital intensity expectations could alter the market's valuation framework.
What we are watching
Whether AWS demand normalizes into a steadier growth pattern rather than a choppier recovery.
How much of the current retail margin improvement is structural versus cyclical.
Whether advertising keeps becoming a larger, more dependable contributor to group profitability.
| Date | Event | Published rating | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | New | Buy | Initiated coverage with a Buy view on AWS and retail margin normalization. |