AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
Amazon continues to compound through AWS, advertising, and retail efficiency gains, with margin expansion still not fully reflected in current valuation assumptions.
Live company workspace
This page is the current view. It combines the latest price context, filing status, reported fundamentals, refreshed normalized statements, and the current model output. Published actions and ratings stay here as reference, while the report page preserves the point-in-time note.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence: Low
Implied return: -28.9 downside
Fair value $149 vs. current $210 (-28.9 downside).
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Ticker
AMZN
Model signal
Sell
Confidence
Low
Fair value
$149
Upside / Downside
-28.9 downside
Jump to section
Live investment view
Base case stance: Sell with low confidence as shares trade at $210 versus $149 fair value, implying -28.9 downside. This workspace updates with the latest live inputs, while the published report remains a point-in-time note.
Current model signal
Sell
Latest analyst action
New
Published Mar 15, 2026
Latest published rating
Buy
Published Mar 15, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Current price data
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 4:09 AM UTC.
Latest filing / report
4 filed Apr 3, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 1, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 3, 2026, 11:28 PM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC.
Open filing sourceReported fundamentals
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence
Low
Current price
$210
Fair value
$149
Upside / Downside
-28.9 downside
Top drivers
AWS remains the core valuation driver and the largest source of incremental profit growth.
Advertising and retail efficiency gains continue to improve consolidated margins.
Top risks
AWS growth could soften if enterprise optimization persists longer than expected.
Retail margin gains may prove less durable if fulfillment or wage costs reaccelerate.
Sector / Industry
Consumer Discretionary
Broadline Retail & Cloud Infrastructure
Headquarters
Seattle, WA
Market Cap
$2.0T
Current / Fair Value
$210 / $149
Upside / Downside
-28.9 downside
Data status
Last updated: Mar 20, 2026
Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.
Coverage is currently limited to ten companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, and NFLX.
Normalized financial summary
Curated normalized annual basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Revenue (Latest FY)
FY2025 | +12.4% vs prior FY
$716.9B
Operating Margin
+40 bps vs prior FY
11.2%
FCF (Latest FY)
1.1% margin | FY2025
$7.9B
Net Cash / (Debt)
Leverage manageable against AWS cash flow
$54.6B
Key ratios
EV / NTM EBITDA
Sector 13.1x
15.7x
P / NTM EPS
Sector 24.8x
31.5x
ROIC
Sector 10.3%
15.4%
Rule of 40
Improving
28%
Base-case assumptions
These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
9.5%
±1.0% => ±$13/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest normalized FY revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: AWS remains the core valuation driver and the largest source of incremental profit growth.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 9.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Amazon.com, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.7%
±0.5% => ∓$15/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage manageable against AWS cash flow
Operating Margin (Year 5)
11.5%
±100 bps => ±$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's normalized operating margin (11.2%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input adjusts for retail mix volatility and uses a steadier AWS margin path.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Scenario workbench
Analyst workbench
This is a local edited scenario, not the published AnalystScope base case or report view. It keeps the published base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates the fair-value estimate immediately.
Base-case rationale remains in the assumptions section above. This first slice uses the published sensitivities to estimate how the edited scenario changes fair value while the cross-check methods remain the published reference point.
Editable assumptions
Adjust the inputs within a reasonable range. Edits stay local to this browser session.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Published base case: 9.5% | ±1.0% => ±$13/sh
Range: 3.5% to 15.5%
Terminal Growth
Published base case: 3.0% | ±0.5% => ±$11/sh
Range: 1.5% to 4.5%
WACC
Published base case: 8.7% | ±0.5% => ∓$15/sh
Range: 6.7% to 10.7%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Published base case: 11.5% | ±100 bps => ±$10/sh
Range: 3.5% to 19.5%
Published base case
Fair value
$149
Upside / Downside
-28.9 downside
Model signal
Sell
Edited scenario
Fair value
$149
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
-29.0 downside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Sell
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Normalized financial statements
Curated normalized annual statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $574.8B | $638.0B | $716.9B |
| Gross Profit | $270.2B | $306.9B | $348.4B |
| Operating Income | $36.8B | $68.9B | $80.3B |
| EBITDA | $85.7B | $121.9B | $146.3B |
| Net Income | $30.5B | $59.3B | $77.4B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $87.3B | $101.2B | $123.0B |
| Total Debt | $66.8B | $57.6B | $68.4B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $20.5B | $43.6B | $54.6B |
| Total Assets | $527.9B | $624.9B | $818.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $326.0B | $338.9B | $406.9B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $201.9B | $286.0B | $411.1B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $85.1B | $116.1B | $139.8B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $48.9B | $53.0B | $66.0B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($52.9B) | ($82.9B) | ($131.9B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $32.2B | $33.2B | $7.9B |
Model inputs vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the live reported fundamentals versus the latest normalized annual inputs still used in the current public analysis model.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Normalization impact on the thesis
Amazon's normalization choices smooth retail and AWS volatility, making the thesis rely more on structural cash-flow and margin improvement than on noisy reported quarters.
Statement basis diagnostics
Latest normalized basis FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.
Income statement
Revenue
FY2025 $716.9B vs reported TTM $716.9B (-0.0%)
Operating margin
FY2025 11.2% vs reported 11.2% (+0.0 pts)
Cash flow
Free cash flow
FY2025 $7.9B vs reported TTM $7.7B (+2.7%)
FCF margin
FY2025 1.1% vs reported 1.1% (+0.0 pts)
Balance sheet
Net cash / (debt)
FY2025 Net cash $54.6B vs reported Net cash $18.4B
| Metric | Reported | Status | Model input | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $716.9B | Live reported | $716.9B +12.4% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths retail calendar effects and the AWS optimization-to-reacceleration transition. | Model / normalized |
| Operating Margin | 11.2% | Live reported | 11.2% +40 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input adjusts for retail mix volatility and uses a steadier AWS margin path. | Model / normalized |
| FCF (TTM) | $7.7B | Live reported | $7.9B 1.1% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up lease, capex, and working-capital timing effects in the reported cash flows. | Model / normalized |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $18.4B | Live reported | $54.6B Leverage manageable against AWS cash flow Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment reflects debt and lease obligations conservatively against available cash. | Model / normalized |
Normalization review
Amazon's normalization choices smooth retail and AWS volatility, making the thesis rely more on structural cash-flow and margin improvement than on noisy reported quarters.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable drift first.
| Metric | Latest normalized basis | Latest live reported | Delta / variance | Materiality | Normalization rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Cash / (Debt) | $54.6B FY2025 normalized | $18.4B Live reported balance sheet | +$36.2B / +5.0% of revenue | Watch | Balance-sheet treatment reflects debt and lease obligations conservatively against available cash. |
FCF (TTM) | $7.9B FY2025 normalized | $7.7B Live reported TTM | +$200.0M / +2.6% | In band | FCF input cleans up lease, capex, and working-capital timing effects in the reported cash flows. |
Operating Margin | 11.2% FY2025 normalized | 11.2% Live reported margin | +0.0 pts | In band | Margin input adjusts for retail mix volatility and uses a steadier AWS margin path. |
Revenue (TTM) | $716.9B FY2025 normalized | $716.9B Live reported TTM | +$0.0 / +0.0% | In band | Model revenue smooths retail calendar effects and the AWS optimization-to-reacceleration transition. |
Ratios + trends
Normalized annual income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+12.4%
Gross margin
48.6%
Operating margin
11.2%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+0.4 pts
EBITDA margin
20.4%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+1.3 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+16.5%
Net margin
10.8%
FCF margin
1.1%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
-4.1 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
-76.2%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$123.0B
Total debt
$68.4B
Net cash / (debt)
Net cash $54.6B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net cash 7.6% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (-4.5 pts)
49.7%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
37.4 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.2x)
1.8x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
1.0x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.5x)
0.1x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+5.4 pts)
18.4%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (+22.9 pts)
94.3%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+0.4x)
2.0x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
1.8x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
57.3%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (-0.1x)
0.9x
Financial diagnostics
Compact normalized-basis diagnostics for analyst triage.
Drift focus
WatchBalance sheet | Net Cash / (Debt) | +$36.2B / +5.0% of revenue
Revenue momentum
Stable+12.4% latest 1Y growth
vs +11.0% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Stable11.2% latest margin
+40 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Weakening1.1% latest FCF margin
-410 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StableNet cash 7.6% of revenue
vs Net cash 6.8% of revenue prior FY
Thesis scorecard
Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.
Growth
ModerateAWS and advertising support growth, though the pace is less linear than prior cycles.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are improving, but retail mix still caps consolidated profitability.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is manageable, though less conservative than other mega-cap peers.
Valuation
StrongThe current setup still leaves room for margin normalization upside.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution is improving, but retail complexity keeps resilience more mixed.
Key drivers
AWS remains the core valuation driver and the largest source of incremental profit growth.
Advertising and retail efficiency gains continue to improve consolidated margins.
Scale advantages still support long-duration reinvestment and share capture.
Key risks
AWS growth could soften if enterprise optimization persists longer than expected.
Retail margin gains may prove less durable if fulfillment or wage costs reaccelerate.
Execution missteps in a lower-margin retail mix would pressure consolidated returns.
What would change our view
Stronger AWS backlog conversion would improve the current fair value range.
A stall in retail efficiency gains would reduce confidence in the margin story.
More durable advertising contribution would make the upside case more compelling.
Near-term catalysts
AWS backlog conversion and margin commentary remain the key near-term catalysts.
Retail fulfillment efficiency and advertising growth updates can move the earnings bridge quickly.
Any shift in capital intensity expectations could alter the market's valuation framework.
What we are watching
Whether AWS demand normalizes into a steadier growth pattern rather than a choppier recovery.
How much of the current retail margin improvement is structural versus cyclical.
Whether advertising keeps becoming a larger, more dependable contributor to group profitability.
Coverage metadata
Last updated
Mar 15, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest analyst action
New
Mar 15, 2026
Latest published rating
Buy
Mar 15, 2026
Analyst note
Tracking AWS backlog conversion, retail efficiency gains, and the contribution from advertising.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Current price source
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 4:04 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 4:09 AM UTC.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Latest filing source
SEC EDGAR submissions API
4 filed Apr 3, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 1, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 3, 2026, 11:28 PM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC.
Open filing sourceCoverage timeline
Timeline events show published analyst actions and ratings. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 15, 2026
Initiated coverage with a Buy view on AWS and retail margin normalization.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$176
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$149
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$119
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Why this rating
The stock currently trades at $210 versus a base-case fair value of $149, implying -28.9 downside. That supports a Sell rating with Low confidence under the current model.
Current price
$210
Fair value
$149
Upside / Downside
-28.9 downside
Model signal / Confidence
Sell / Low
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods show a wider range from $42 to $265, which tempers conviction.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 11.2%, with +40 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning remains net cash positive at $54.6B, with leverage manageable against aws cash flow.
Valuation methods
| Method | Implied Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $42 | 50% |
| NTM EBIT Multiple | $265 | 30% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $243 | 20% |
Buy / Hold / Sell output
Current model recommendation
Sell
Price: $210
Fair value: $149
Implied upside / downside: -28.9 downside
Latest published rating: Buy on Mar 15, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.
What changed section
2026-03-15
AWS backlog assumptions revised higher
Impact: +2.0% target revision
2026-03-07
North America retail margin forecast increased
Impact: +80 bps operating margin
2026-03-02
Advertising growth sensitivity widened in bull case
Impact: Improves upside skew