Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
Amazon continues to compound through AWS, advertising, and retail efficiency gains, with margin expansion still not fully reflected in current valuation assumptions.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest price context, filing updates, refreshed normalized statements, and current model output, return to the company page.
Live reference context
These cards show the latest live reference data beside the published note. The written note and published rating remain anchored to the report date above.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence
Low
Current price
$210
Latest analyst action
New
Mar 15, 2026
Latest published rating
Buy
Mar 15, 2026
Fair value
$149
Upside / Downside
-28.9 downside
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Current price data
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 4:03 AM UTC.
Latest filing / report
4 filed Apr 3, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 1, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 3, 2026, 11:28 PM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC.
Open filing sourceReported fundamentals
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Analyst summary
Amazon continues to compound through AWS, advertising, and retail efficiency gains, with margin expansion still not fully reflected in current valuation assumptions.
Why this view
- Valuation implies 28.9% downside versus fair value.
- Operating trends show +12.4% revenue growth with 11.2% operating margin.
- Cash-flow quality shows 1.1% FCF margin.
- Balance sheet remains net cash positive at $54.6B, equal to 7.6% of revenue.
What to watch
Whether AWS demand normalizes into a steadier growth pattern rather than a choppier recovery.
Thesis scorecard
Lightweight qualitative scorecard across the core dimensions shaping the current investment view.
Growth
ModerateAWS and advertising support growth, though the pace is less linear than prior cycles.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are improving, but retail mix still caps consolidated profitability.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is manageable, though less conservative than other mega-cap peers.
Valuation
StrongThe current setup still leaves room for margin normalization upside.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution is improving, but retail complexity keeps resilience more mixed.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case value
$176
Stronger execution and valuation support than the base case.
Base case value
$149
This is the main recommendation anchor used on the public company page.
Bear case value
$119
Weaker assumptions or lower multiple support than the base case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts, and the note under each number explains why that level was used in the base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
9.5%
±1.0% => ±$13/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest normalized FY revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: AWS remains the core valuation driver and the largest source of incremental profit growth.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 9.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Amazon.com, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.7%
±0.5% => ∓$15/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage manageable against AWS cash flow
Operating Margin (Year 5)
11.5%
±100 bps => ±$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's normalized operating margin (11.2%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input adjusts for retail mix volatility and uses a steadier AWS margin path.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model inputs vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the live reported fundamentals versus the latest normalized annual inputs still used in the current public analysis model.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Normalization impact on the thesis
Amazon's normalization choices smooth retail and AWS volatility, making the thesis rely more on structural cash-flow and margin improvement than on noisy reported quarters.
| Metric | Reported | Status | Model input | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $716.9B | Live reported | $716.9B +12.4% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths retail calendar effects and the AWS optimization-to-reacceleration transition. | Model / normalized |
| Operating Margin | 11.2% | Live reported | 11.2% +40 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input adjusts for retail mix volatility and uses a steadier AWS margin path. | Model / normalized |
| FCF (TTM) | $7.7B | Live reported | $7.9B 1.1% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up lease, capex, and working-capital timing effects in the reported cash flows. | Model / normalized |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $18.4B | Live reported | $54.6B Leverage manageable against AWS cash flow Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment reflects debt and lease obligations conservatively against available cash. | Model / normalized |
Why this rating
Shares currently trade at $210 versus a base-case fair value of $149, implying -28.9 downside. That supports a Sell rating with Low confidence under the current model.
Fair value $149 vs. current $210 (-28.9 downside).
Current price
$210
Fair value
$149
Upside / Downside
-28.9 downside
Model signal / Confidence
Sell / Low
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods show a wider range from $42 to $265, which tempers conviction.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 11.2%, with +40 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning remains net cash positive at $54.6B, with leverage manageable against aws cash flow.
Valuation breakdown
| Method name | Implied value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $42 | 50% |
| NTM EBIT Multiple | $265 | 30% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $243 | 20% |
Key drivers
AWS remains the core valuation driver and the largest source of incremental profit growth.
Advertising and retail efficiency gains continue to improve consolidated margins.
Scale advantages still support long-duration reinvestment and share capture.
Key risks
AWS growth could soften if enterprise optimization persists longer than expected.
Retail margin gains may prove less durable if fulfillment or wage costs reaccelerate.
Execution missteps in a lower-margin retail mix would pressure consolidated returns.
What would change our view
Stronger AWS backlog conversion would improve the current fair value range.
A stall in retail efficiency gains would reduce confidence in the margin story.
More durable advertising contribution would make the upside case more compelling.
Near-term catalysts
AWS backlog conversion and margin commentary remain the key near-term catalysts.
Retail fulfillment efficiency and advertising growth updates can move the earnings bridge quickly.
Any shift in capital intensity expectations could alter the market's valuation framework.
What we are watching
Whether AWS demand normalizes into a steadier growth pattern rather than a choppier recovery.
How much of the current retail margin improvement is structural versus cyclical.
Whether advertising keeps becoming a larger, more dependable contributor to group profitability.
Coverage metadata
Last updated
Mar 15, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest analyst action
New
Mar 15, 2026
Latest published rating
Buy
Mar 15, 2026
Analyst note
Tracking AWS backlog conversion, retail efficiency gains, and the contribution from advertising.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.
Current price source
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Last refreshed Apr 4, 2026, 3:58 AM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 4:03 AM UTC.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Last refreshed 4 Apr 2026, 03:58 UTC. Stale after 4 Apr 2026, 15:58 UTC.
Latest filing source
SEC EDGAR submissions API
4 filed Apr 3, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 1, 2026
Last refreshed Apr 3, 2026, 11:28 PM UTC. Stale after Apr 4, 2026, 11:28 AM UTC.
Open filing sourceCoverage timeline
Timeline entries reflect published analyst actions and ratings. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Mar 15, 2026
Initiated coverage with a Buy view on AWS and retail margin normalization.