Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
Amazon continues to compound through AWS, advertising, and retail efficiency gains, with margin expansion still not fully reflected in current valuation assumptions.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Sell signal with low confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $265 versus $231 fair value, implying -12.8 downside.
Current workspace signal
Sell
Confidence
Low
Stale scheduled quote
$265
Fair value
$231
-12.8 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:55 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:55 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed Jun 3, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 1, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:32 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:32 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateAWS and advertising support growth, though the pace is less linear than prior cycles.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are improving, but retail mix still caps consolidated profitability.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is manageable, though less conservative than other mega-cap peers.
Valuation
StrongThe current setup still leaves room for margin normalization upside.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateExecution is improving, but retail complexity keeps resilience more mixed.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$272
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$231
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$185
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
9.5%
±1.0% => ±$13/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: AWS remains the core valuation driver and the largest source of incremental profit growth.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
±0.5% => ±$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 9.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Amazon.com, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.7%
±0.5% => ∓$15/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage manageable against AWS cash flow
Operating Margin (Year 5)
11.5%
±100 bps => ±$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (10.7%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input adjusts for retail mix volatility and uses a steadier AWS margin path.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:32 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:32 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
Amazon's normalization choices smooth retail and AWS volatility, making the thesis rely more on structural cash-flow and margin improvement than on noisy reported quarters.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $716.9B | Live reported | $661.6B +11.0% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths retail calendar effects and the AWS optimization-to-reacceleration transition. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 11.2% | Live reported | 10.7% +219 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input adjusts for retail mix volatility and uses a steadier AWS margin path. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $7.7B | Live reported | $44.9B 6.8% margin Adjustment: FCF input cleans up lease, capex, and working-capital timing effects in the reported cash flows. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($20.1B) | Live reported | ($22.4B) Leverage manageable against AWS cash flow Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment reflects debt and lease obligations conservatively against available cash. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Buy rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $265 versus a base-case fair value of $231, implying -12.8 downside.
Fair value $231 vs. current $265 (-12.8 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods remain directionally aligned, with a moderate range from $220 to $239.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 10.7%, with +219 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($22.4B), with leverage manageable against aws cash flow.
Key drivers
AWS remains the core valuation driver and the largest source of incremental profit growth.
Advertising and retail efficiency gains continue to improve consolidated margins.
Scale advantages still support long-duration reinvestment and share capture.
Key risks
AWS growth could soften if enterprise optimization persists longer than expected.
Retail margin gains may prove less durable if fulfillment or wage costs reaccelerate.
Execution missteps in a lower-margin retail mix would pressure consolidated returns.
What would change our view
Stronger AWS backlog conversion would improve the current fair value range.
A stall in retail efficiency gains would reduce confidence in the margin story.
More durable advertising contribution would make the upside case more compelling.
Near-term catalysts
AWS backlog conversion and margin commentary remain the key near-term catalysts.
Retail fulfillment efficiency and advertising growth updates can move the earnings bridge quickly.
Any shift in capital intensity expectations could alter the market's valuation framework.
What we are watching
Whether AWS demand normalizes into a steadier growth pattern rather than a choppier recovery.
How much of the current retail margin improvement is structural versus cyclical.
Whether advertising keeps becoming a larger, more dependable contributor to group profitability.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Mar 15, 2026.
Report updated
Mar 15, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Mar 15, 2026
Current published rating
Buy
Published Mar 15, 2026
Analyst note
Tracking AWS backlog conversion, retail efficiency gains, and the contribution from advertising.
What changed in the report
Mar 15, 2026
AWS backlog assumptions revised higher
Impact: +2.0% target revision
Mar 7, 2026
North America retail margin forecast increased
Impact: +80 bps operating margin
Mar 2, 2026
Advertising growth sensitivity widened in bull case
Impact: Improves upside skew
Report timeline
Mar 15, 2026
Initiated coverage with a Buy view on AWS and retail margin normalization.