CAT
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
Caterpillar Inc. is added as a high-quality large-cap coverage candidate with construction, mining, energy, and transportation equipment with aftermarket support. The initial AnalystScope view weighs infrastructure, mining, energy, and aftermarket demand against cycle strength is visible, so the model avoids extrapolating peak margins, keeping the rating restrained until the model has more live refresh history.
Main company research view
Start here for AnalystScope's current fair value, model signal, thesis drivers, assumptions, normalized fundamentals, and private scenario sandbox. The printable report is secondary: a point-in-time published snapshot for archive or print use, not the primary research destination.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence: Medium
Implied return: -55.7 downside
Fair value $404 vs. current $911 (-55.7 downside).
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Price vs fair value
-55.6%
Model-implied return
Stale scheduled quote
$911
Fair value
$404
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $404
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$410 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$402 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$393 | 20%
Current research conclusion
Base case stance: Sell with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $911 versus $404 fair value, implying -55.7 downside. This workspace updates with the latest daily scheduled quote and reported inputs, while the printable report remains a point-in-time published snapshot.
Price basis warning
Current price-dependent output is using a stale scheduled quote. Fair value, upside / downside, and the model signal are still shown, but they should be read with caution until a fresher daily scheduled quote refresh is available.
Current model signal
Sell
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Daily scheduled refresh
Alpha Vantage GLOBAL_QUOTE
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 15, 2026, 7:24 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 16, 2026, 7:24 AM UTC.
Filing refreshed
8-K filed Jun 11, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 10, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC.
Open filing sourceFundamentals refreshed
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Current model signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$911
Fair value
$404
Upside / Downside
-55.7 downside
Top drivers
Aftermarket and services revenue improves resilience versus pure equipment cycles.
Infrastructure and energy demand support current revenue quality.
Top risks
Construction or mining downturns could reset demand quickly.
Dealer inventory changes can amplify cycle swings.
Sector / Industry
Industrials
Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Headquarters
Irving, TX
Market Cap
$184B
Current / Fair Value
$911 / $404
Upside / Downside
-55.7 downside
Coverage snapshot
Report updated: Jun 15, 2026
Curated public preview analysis with live price, filing metadata, and reported fundamentals overlays. Full live filing ingestion is not yet enabled.
Coverage currently spans sixty-five companies: MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO, ORCL, AMD, NFLX, V, MA, WMT, PG, JNJ, ADBE, CSCO, TXN, COST, KO, HD, PEP, QCOM, INTU, MCD, ADP, ABT, IBM, LOW, SBUX, NKE, DIS, AMAT, LRCX, MRK, PFE, TMO, ACN, NOW, PANW, SNPS, CDNS, ADI, HON, CAT, DE, UPS, BKNG, YUM, MDLZ, FDX, CMG, TGT, LULU, GILD, AMGN, REGN, ZTS, ISRG, SYK, DHR, CL, KMB, ROST, and TJX.
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+1.9% YoY
$66.0B
Op. margin
+0.1% pts
21.1%
FCF margin
+0.1% pts
12.4%
Revenue + margin trend
Annual normalized model-base history.
Revenue
Operating margin
Model-base financial summary
Current annual model-base range: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Revenue (Latest FY)
FY2025 | +1.9% vs prior FY
$66.0B
Operating Margin
+7 bps vs prior FY
21.1%
FCF (Latest FY)
12.4% margin | FY2025
$8.2B
Net Cash / (Debt)
Financial-services debt requires conservative interpretation
($31.0B)
Key ratios
EV / NTM EBITDA
Machinery peer set
16.5x
P / NTM EPS
Machinery peer set
19.5x
ROIC
Quality large-cap peer set
18.0%
Rule of 40
Business-model context
23%
Base-case assumptions
These are AnalystScope's current base-case valuation inputs. The note under each number explains why that level is considered reasonable for this company; the sensitivity line shows how much fair value moves if that judgment is wrong.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
3.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Infrastructure and energy demand support current revenue quality.
Terminal Growth
2.2%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.2%, it sits well below the 3.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Caterpillar Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.5%
+/- 0.5% => -$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Financial-services debt requires conservative interpretation
Operating Margin (Year 5)
20.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (21.1%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Scenario workbench
Private scenario sandbox
This is a private modelling layer, not the public AnalystScope base case or printable snapshot. It keeps the public base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates your scenario fair-value estimate immediately.
Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for CAT. Base-case rationale remains in the public assumptions section above. Your scenario output reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the AnalystScope framework.
Editable assumptions
Adjust your scenario inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the public AnalystScope base case.
This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.
Matches the published AnalystScope base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Public AnalystScope base case: 3.0% | +/- 1.0% => +/-$8/sh
Allowed range: 0.0% to 9.0%
Terminal Growth
Public AnalystScope base case: 2.2% | +/- 0.5% => +/-$7/sh
Allowed range: 1.0% to 3.7%
WACC
Public AnalystScope base case: 8.5% | +/- 0.5% => -$12/sh
Allowed range: 6.5% to 10.5%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Public AnalystScope base case: 20.5% | +/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh
Allowed range: 12.5% to 28.5%
Saved private scenarios
Save up to 5 named scenarios for CAT. These are your scenarios: they never overwrite the public AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.
Checking private workspace session...
Private scenario note
Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.
0 / 280
Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.
No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.
Published base case
Fair value
$404
Upside / Downside
-55.7 downside
Model signal
Sell
Published base-case output
Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.
Fair value
$404
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
-55.7 downside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Sell
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Method movement inside the scenario
This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.
Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.
Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.
| Method | Published base | Edited scenario | Delta | How it moved / main drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF (Base) DCF-style | 45% weight | $410 | $410 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style | 35% weight | $402 | $402 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple | 20% weight | $393 | $393 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Weighted fair value Published framework result | Published framework result | $404 | $404 | -$0/sh | Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way. |
Published base case vs private scenarios
Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.
Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.
Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR (5Y) | Terminal Growth | WACC | Op. Margin (Y5) | Fair Value | Upside / Downside | Model Signal | Delta vs Base | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AnalystScope base case PublishedOfficial AnalystScope anchor row. | 3.0% | 2.2% | 8.5% | 20.5% | $404 | -55.7 downside | Sell | Published anchor |
Model-base financial statements
AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $67.1B | $64.8B | $66.0B |
| Gross Profit | $23.5B | $23.3B | $23.9B |
| Operating Income | $13.8B | $13.6B | $13.9B |
| EBITDA | $16.5B | $16.2B | $16.5B |
| Net Income | $10.1B | $9.8B | $10.1B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $7.0B | $7.5B | $8.0B |
| Total Debt | $37.0B | $38.0B | $39.0B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($30.0B) | ($30.5B) | ($31.0B) |
| Total Assets | $86.0B | $89.0B | $92.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $68.0B | $69.0B | $70.0B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $18.0B | $20.0B | $22.0B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $10.1B | $9.9B | $10.2B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $2.7B | $2.6B | $2.6B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($1.9B) | ($1.9B) | ($2.0B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.2B | $8.0B | $8.2B |
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
This initial coverage setup keeps valuation tied to durable normalized fundamentals and avoids letting a single recent print dominate the public view.
Model-base diagnostics
Latest model base FY2025 versus the current live reported snapshot where available.
Income statement
Revenue
FY2025 $66.0B vs reported TTM $67.6B (-2.4%)
Operating margin
FY2025 21.1% vs reported 16.5% (+4.6 pts)
Cash flow
Free cash flow
FY2025 $8.2B vs reported TTM $8.9B (-8.1%)
FCF margin
FY2025 12.4% vs reported 13.2% (-0.8 pts)
Balance sheet
Net cash / (debt)
FY2025 Net debt $31.0B vs reported Net debt $26.6B
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $67.6B | Live reported | $66.0B +1.9% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths short-term demand, timing, and segment-mix volatility rather than treating the latest period as a straight-line run rate. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 16.5% | Live reported | 21.1% +7 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $8.9B | Live reported | $8.2B 12.4% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes working-capital and capital-spending timing so cash conversion is not over-read from one period. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($26.6B) | Live reported | ($31.0B) Financial-services debt requires conservative interpretation Adjustment: Balance-sheet input uses a conservative net cash / debt posture without assuming all cash is excess or fully distributable. | Model base |
Reported vs durable model base
How to read this
Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.
This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.
Why the model base differs
This initial coverage setup keeps valuation tied to durable normalized fundamentals and avoids letting a single recent print dominate the public view.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.
| Metric | Model base | Live reported | Variance vs reported | Adjustment size | Why lower / higher? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF (TTM) | $8.2B FY2025 model base | $8.9B Live reported TTM | -$700.0M / -8% | Close to reported | Model base is lower than live reported because cash generation is being smoothed for timing effects rather than taken at face value. It normalizes working-capital and capital-spending timing so cash conversion is not over-read from one period. |
Net Cash / (Debt) | ($31.0B) FY2025 model base | ($26.6B) Live reported balance sheet | -$4.4B / -7% of revenue | Moderate adjustment | Model base is more conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure. It balance-sheet input uses a conservative net cash / debt posture without assuming all cash is excess or fully distributable. |
Operating Margin | 21.1% FY2025 model base | 16.5% Live reported margin | +4.6 pts | Moderate adjustment | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest reported margin pressure is the durable earnings base. It uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects. |
Revenue (TTM) | $66.0B FY2025 model base | $67.6B Live reported TTM | -$1.6B / -2% | Close to reported | Model base is lower than live reported because the thesis does not carry the current revenue run-rate straight into the durable operating base. It smooths short-term demand, timing, and segment-mix volatility rather than treating the latest period as a straight-line run rate. |
Ratios + trends
Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+1.9%
Gross margin
36.2%
Operating margin
21.1%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+0.1 pts
EBITDA margin
25.0%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+0.0 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+2.2%
Net margin
15.3%
FCF margin
12.4%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+0.1 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+2.5%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$8.0B
Total debt
$39.0B
Net cash / (debt)
Net debt $31.0B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net debt 47.0% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (-1.4 pts)
76.1%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
15.2 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.0x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.6x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.8x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (+0.1 pts)
3.0%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (+0.4 pts)
19.6%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.8x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.2x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
33.3%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.7x
Financial diagnostics
Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.
Revenue momentum
Improving+1.9% latest 1Y growth
vs -3.4% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Stable21.1% latest margin
+7 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Stable12.4% latest FCF margin
+8 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StableNet debt 47.0% of revenue
vs Net debt 47.1% of revenue prior FY
Thesis scorecard
Qualitative scorecard of the main thesis dimensions behind the current investment view.
Growth
Moderateinfrastructure, mining, energy, and aftermarket demand
Profitability
Strongpricing, services, and disciplined production support higher cycle margins
Balance sheet
Moderatefinancial-services debt needs to be read separately from core industrial cash flow
Valuation
Moderatecycle strength is visible, so the model avoids extrapolating peak margins
Execution / Resilience
Moderatemachinery cycles can turn quickly if infrastructure, mining, or dealer demand weakens
Key drivers
Aftermarket and services revenue improves resilience versus pure equipment cycles.
Infrastructure and energy demand support current revenue quality.
Pricing discipline has lifted the normalized margin base.
Key risks
Construction or mining downturns could reset demand quickly.
Dealer inventory changes can amplify cycle swings.
Financial-services debt can complicate simple net-debt interpretation.
What would change our view
A clearer evidence base around infrastructure, mining, energy, and aftermarket demand would improve confidence.
A deterioration in pricing, services, and disciplined production support higher cycle margins would reduce support for the current fair value.
A wider gap between price and normalized cash-flow support would make the rating harder to defend.
Near-term catalysts
Next quarterly update and management commentary on demand quality.
Reported margin, cash-flow conversion, and balance-sheet movement versus the normalized model base.
Daily scheduled quote refreshes that tighten the current price-versus-fair-value read.
What we are watching
Dealer inventory and backlog quality.
Construction and mining order trends.
Margin resilience if equipment demand normalizes.
Coverage metadata
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
New coverage entry focused on infrastructure, mining, energy, and aftermarket demand and cycle strength is visible, so the model avoids extrapolating peak margins.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Coverage timeline
Timeline events show published note events and the rating that followed each event. The current model signal is shown separately above.
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on strong industrial execution versus cycle normalization risk.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$453
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$404
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$318
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Why this rating
The stock is currently being evaluated against $911 versus a base-case fair value of $404, implying -55.7 downside. That supports a Sell rating with Medium confidence under the current model.
Stale scheduled quote
$911
Fair value
$404
Upside / Downside
-55.7 downside
Model signal / Confidence
Sell / Medium
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $393 to $410.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 21.1%, with +7 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning currently reflects net debt of ($31.0B), with financial-services debt requires conservative interpretation.
Valuation methods
| Method | Implied Value | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $410 | 45% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $402 | 35% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $393 | 20% |
Buy / Hold / Sell output
Current model recommendation
Sell
Price: $911
Fair value: $404
Implied upside / downside: -55.7 downside
Current published rating: Hold on Jun 13, 2026
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
The displayed rating is anchored to the base-case fair value. Buy is assigned at 8% or greater implied upside, Hold between -10% and +8%, and Sell at -10% or worse, with borderline calls cross-checked against normalized operating, cash-generation, and balance-sheet support. Confidence reflects valuation dispersion, operating margin profile, and balance-sheet strength.
What changed section
2026-06-13
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on strong industrial execution versus cycle normalization risk.
2026-06-13
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Adds a high-search industrial bellwether with explicit caution around cycle and financial-services debt.