Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Published Snapshot
Caterpillar Inc. is added as a high-quality large-cap coverage candidate with construction, mining, energy, and transportation equipment with aftermarket support. The initial AnalystScope view weighs infrastructure, mining, energy, and aftermarket demand against cycle strength is visible, so the model avoids extrapolating peak margins, keeping the rating restrained until the model has more live refresh history.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Sell signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $911 versus $404 fair value, implying -55.7 downside.
Price vs fair value
-55.6%
Model-implied return
Stale scheduled quote
$911
Fair value
$404
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $404
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$410 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$402 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$393 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+1.9% YoY
$66.0B
Op. margin
+0.1% pts
21.1%
FCF margin
+0.1% pts
12.4%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$410
NTM P/E Multiple
$402
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$393
Current workspace signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$911
Fair value
$404
-55.7 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 15, 2026, 7:24 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 16, 2026, 7:24 AM UTC.
Filing reference
8-K filed Jun 11, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 10, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:04 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:04 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
Moderateinfrastructure, mining, energy, and aftermarket demand
Profitability
Strongpricing, services, and disciplined production support higher cycle margins
Balance sheet
Moderatefinancial-services debt needs to be read separately from core industrial cash flow
Valuation
Moderatecycle strength is visible, so the model avoids extrapolating peak margins
Execution / Resilience
Moderatemachinery cycles can turn quickly if infrastructure, mining, or dealer demand weakens
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$453
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$404
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$318
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
3.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Infrastructure and energy demand support current revenue quality.
Terminal Growth
2.2%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.2%, it sits well below the 3.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Caterpillar Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.5%
+/- 0.5% => -$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Financial-services debt requires conservative interpretation
Operating Margin (Year 5)
20.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (21.1%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:04 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:04 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
This initial coverage setup keeps valuation tied to durable normalized fundamentals and avoids letting a single recent print dominate the public view.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $67.6B | Live reported | $66.0B +1.9% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths short-term demand, timing, and segment-mix volatility rather than treating the latest period as a straight-line run rate. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 16.5% | Live reported | 21.1% +7 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $8.9B | Live reported | $8.2B 12.4% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes working-capital and capital-spending timing so cash conversion is not over-read from one period. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($26.6B) | Live reported | ($31.0B) Financial-services debt requires conservative interpretation Adjustment: Balance-sheet input uses a conservative net cash / debt posture without assuming all cash is excess or fully distributable. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $911 versus a base-case fair value of $404, implying -55.7 downside.
Fair value $404 vs. current $911 (-55.7 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $393 to $410.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 21.1%, with +7 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($31.0B), with financial-services debt requires conservative interpretation.
Key drivers
Aftermarket and services revenue improves resilience versus pure equipment cycles.
Infrastructure and energy demand support current revenue quality.
Pricing discipline has lifted the normalized margin base.
Key risks
Construction or mining downturns could reset demand quickly.
Dealer inventory changes can amplify cycle swings.
Financial-services debt can complicate simple net-debt interpretation.
What would change our view
A clearer evidence base around infrastructure, mining, energy, and aftermarket demand would improve confidence.
A deterioration in pricing, services, and disciplined production support higher cycle margins would reduce support for the current fair value.
A wider gap between price and normalized cash-flow support would make the rating harder to defend.
Near-term catalysts
Next quarterly update and management commentary on demand quality.
Reported margin, cash-flow conversion, and balance-sheet movement versus the normalized model base.
Daily scheduled quote refreshes that tighten the current price-versus-fair-value read.
What we are watching
Dealer inventory and backlog quality.
Construction and mining order trends.
Margin resilience if equipment demand normalizes.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
New coverage entry focused on infrastructure, mining, energy, and aftermarket demand and cycle strength is visible, so the model avoids extrapolating peak margins.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on strong industrial execution versus cycle normalization risk.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Adds a high-search industrial bellwether with explicit caution around cycle and financial-services debt.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on strong industrial execution versus cycle normalization risk.