AnalystScope equity researchCurrent company view

DIS

The Walt Disney Company

Communication Services / Entertainment / Burbank, CA

View printable snapshot

AnalystScope signal

Buy

Scheduled quote

$96

Base fair value

$106

Bear / base / bull

$84 / $106 / $122

Upside / downside

+10.4 upside

Confidence

Medium

Research updated Jun 13, 2026

Daily scheduled refresh as of Aug 1, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Aug 2, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.

Informational research only. Not personalized investment advice.

Model vs published view

Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.

Investment summary

Current view and thesis

Disney adds a major media and entertainment name with high search interest. The initial view is Hold: improving cash generation, but still mixed segment visibility.

Fair value $106 vs. current $96 (+10.4 upside). Current base fair value is $106 versus $96, implying +10.4 upside.

Key drivers

Parks resilience and pricing power remain important cash-flow supports.

Streaming profitability and subscriber quality are central to sentiment.

Studio and sports/media execution influence the durability of the recovery.

Key risks

Legacy media pressure could offset streaming and parks improvement.

Content-spend discipline may be difficult to sustain without hurting growth.

Leverage and capital allocation could constrain equity upside.

What would change the view

Cleaner streaming profitability with stable engagement would improve the view.

Further debt reduction and cash-flow consistency would raise confidence.

A renewed media or parks slowdown would weaken the initial base case.

Valuation

Price, range, and method support

Base case $106 / +10.4 upside / medium confidence

Price vs fair value

+10.2%

Model-implied return

Scheduled quote

$96

Fair value

$106

Valuation method stack

Weighted fair value $106

Published method weights

DCF (Base)

$109 | 45%

NTM P/E Multiple

$105 | 35%

EV/EBITDA Cross-check

$102 | 20%

Case / method	Value	Weight / support
DCF (Base)	$109	45%
NTM P/E Multiple	$105	35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check	$102	20%
Bear case	$84	Mixed
Base case	$106	Constrained
Bull case	$122	Mixed

Fundamental analysis

Reported evidence and normalized model base

Normalized annual basis: FY2025

Download reported financials CSV Download normalized financials CSV

Normalized figures are AnalystScope's annual valuation model base.

Normalized metric	Latest value	Growth / margin context
Revenue	$93.7B	+2.5% YoY
Operating income	$13.6B	14.5% margin
Net income	$6.6B	EPS proxy $3.64
Free cash flow	$8.7B	9.3% margin
EBITDA	$19.3B	20.6% margin
Net cash / (debt)	-$31.5B	-33.6% of revenue

Metric	Reported	AnalystScope normalized	Basis note
Revenue (TTM)	$94.4B	$93.7B	Model revenue smooths parks, streaming, studio release timing, and media-cycle volatility.
Operating Margin	18.6%	14.5%	Margin input assumes continued streaming and cost discipline, but not a straight-line return to peak media economics.
FCF (TTM)	$10.1B	$8.7B	FCF input normalizes content-spend timing and parks investment cycles.
Net Cash / (Debt)	($41.7B)	($31.5B)	Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage visible until cash generation and debt reduction are more durable.

Fundamental snapshot

FY2025

Normalized annual model base

Revenue

+2.5% YoY

$93.7B

Op. margin

+1.3% pts

14.5%

FCF margin

+0.6% pts

9.3%

Revenue + margin trend

Annual normalized model-base history.

Revenue

2023

2024

2025

Operating margin

2023

2024

2025

AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.

Income statement

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	$88.9B	$91.4B	$93.7B
Gross Profit	$30.2B	$31.8B	$33.2B
Operating Income	$10.2B	$12.1B	$13.6B
EBITDA	$15.5B	$17.6B	$19.3B
Net Income	$2.7B	$4.8B	$6.6B

Balance sheet

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & Investments	$14.0B	$14.5B	$15.0B
Total Debt	$47.0B	$47.0B	$46.5B
Net Cash / (Debt)	($33.0B)	($32.5B)	($31.5B)
Total Assets	$205.0B	$208.0B	$212.0B
Total Liabilities	$106.0B	$107.0B	$108.0B
Shareholders' Equity	$99.0B	$101.0B	$104.0B

Cash flow

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	$11.1B	$12.3B	$13.1B
Depreciation & Amortization	$5.3B	$5.5B	$5.7B
Capital Expenditures	($4.4B)	($4.4B)	($4.4B)
Free Cash Flow	$6.7B	$7.9B	$8.7B

Model assumptions

Base-case inputs and sensitivity

Published AnalystScope assumptions; private edits do not change this base case.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

4.5%

+/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Parks resilience and pricing power remain important cash-flow supports.

Terminal Growth

2.5%

+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 4.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For The Walt Disney Company, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.

WACC

8.6%

+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage remains a valuation constraint despite improving cash flow

Operating Margin (Year 5)

15.5%

+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (14.5%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input assumes continued streaming and cost discipline, but not a straight-line return to peak media economics.

Sensitivity drivers

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

4.5%

+/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh

Terminal Growth

2.5%

+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh

WACC

8.6%

+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh

Operating Margin (Year 5)

15.5%

+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh

Confidence

Medium

Method outputs are tightly grouped at +6.6% dispersion.

Why the model view could be wrong

Legacy media pressure could offset streaming and parks improvement.

Content-spend discipline may be difficult to sustain without hurting growth.

Leverage and capital allocation could constrain equity upside.

Private analysis

Test your own assumptions in Scenario Builder

Private scenarios remain separate from AnalystScope's published base case.

Open Scenario Builder

Private workspace

Scenario Builder

Private scenario sandbox

This is a private modelling layer, not the public AnalystScope base case or printable snapshot. It keeps the public base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates your scenario fair-value estimate immediately.

Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for DIS. Base-case rationale remains in the public assumptions section above. Your scenario output reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the AnalystScope framework.

Editable assumptions

Adjust your scenario inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the public AnalystScope base case.

This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.

Matches the published AnalystScope base case.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

Public AnalystScope base case: 4.5% | +/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh

Allowed range: 0.0% to 10.5%

Terminal Growth

Public AnalystScope base case: 2.5% | +/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh

Allowed range: 1.0% to 4.0%

WACC

Public AnalystScope base case: 8.6% | +/- 0.5% => -$5/sh

Allowed range: 6.6% to 10.6%

Operating Margin (Year 5)

Public AnalystScope base case: 15.5% | +/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh

Allowed range: 7.5% to 23.5%

Saved private scenarios

Save up to 5 named scenarios for DIS. These are your scenarios: they never overwrite the public AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.

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Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.

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Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.

No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.

Published base case

Fair value

$106

Upside / Downside

+10.4 upside

Model signal

Buy

Published base-case output

Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.

Fair value

$106

$0/sh vs published base case

Upside / Downside

+10.4 upside

+0.0 pts vs published base case

Model signal

Buy

Unchanged versus the published base case.

Method movement inside the scenario

This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.

Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.

Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.

3 of 3 methods support model-native repricingModel-native bridge

Method	Published base	Edited scenario	Delta	How it moved / main drivers
DCF (Base) DCF-style \| 45% weight	$109	$109	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style \| 35% weight	$105	$105	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple \| 20% weight	$102	$102	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
Weighted fair value Published framework result \| Published framework result	$106	$106	+$0/sh	Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way.

Published base case vs private scenarios

Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.

Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.

Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.

Scenario	Revenue CAGR (5Y)	Terminal Growth	WACC	Op. Margin (Y5)	Fair Value	Upside / Downside	Model Signal	Delta vs Base	Action
AnalystScope base case Published Official AnalystScope anchor row.	4.5%	2.5%	8.6%	15.5%	$106	+10.4 upside	Buy	Published anchor

Supporting research

Quality, normalization, and monitoring evidence

Annual model base: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025

Thesis scorecard

Growth

Moderate

Parks and streaming can support growth, while legacy media remains pressured.

Profitability

Moderate

Margins are improving but still segment-dependent.

Balance sheet

Weak

Leverage remains material enough to temper the upside case.

Valuation

Moderate

The spread to fair value is positive but not wide.

Execution / Resilience

Moderate

Brand/IP strength is real, but execution complexity is high.

Current source status

Quote: Daily scheduled refresh as of Aug 1, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Aug 2, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.

Reported fundamentals: Fundamentals refreshed 1 Aug 2026, 16:26 UTC. Fresh through 2 Aug 2026, 04:26 UTC.

Latest filing: 4 filed Jul 20, 2026 | Reporting period Jul 17, 2026. Filing refreshed Aug 1, 2026, 4:26 PM UTC. Fresh through Aug 2, 2026, 4:26 AM UTC.

Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.

Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.

Operating and cash-flow trends

Model-base statements

Revenue growth (1Y)

+2.5%

Gross margin

35.4%

Operating margin

14.5%

Operating margin change vs prior FY

+1.3 pts

EBITDA margin

20.6%

EBITDA margin change vs prior FY

+1.3 pts

Operating income growth (1Y)

+12.4%

Net margin

7.0%

FCF margin

9.3%

FCF margin change vs prior FY

+0.6 pts

FCF growth (1Y)

+10.1%

Balance sheet quality

Model-base statements

Cash & investments

$15.0B

Total debt

$46.5B

Net cash / (debt)

Net debt $31.5B

Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue

Net debt 33.6% of revenue

Liabilities / assets

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.5 pts)

50.9%

Cross-statement quality

Model-base statements

Gross-to-operating spread

20.9 pts

Operating cash flow / net income

Weakening

vs FY2024 (-0.6x)

2.0x

Operating cash flow / EBITDA

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.0x)

0.7x

Free cash flow / net income

Weakening

vs FY2024 (-0.3x)

1.3x

CapEx as % of revenue

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.1 pts)

4.7%

CapEx as % of operating cash flow

Stable

vs FY2024 (-2.2 pts)

33.6%

CapEx / D&A

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.0x)

0.8x

Cash & investments / total debt

Stable

vs FY2024 (+0.0x)

0.3x

Shareholders' equity as % of revenue

111.0%

Asset turnover

Stable

vs FY2024 (+0.0x)

0.4x

Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.

Adjustment focus

Moderate adjustment

Cash flow | FCF (TTM) | -$1.4B / -14%

Revenue momentum

Stable

+2.5% latest 1Y growth

vs +2.8% prior 1Y

Operating margin trend

Improving

14.5% latest margin

+128 bps vs prior FY

FCF margin trend

Stable

9.3% latest FCF margin

+64 bps vs prior FY

Balance-sheet posture

Stable

Net debt 33.6% of revenue

vs Net debt 35.6% of revenue prior FY

How to read this

Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.

This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.

Why the model base differs

Disney is modeled as a multi-segment recovery case where parks resilience and streaming progress help, but media volatility and leverage keep the initial view restrained.

Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.

Metric	Model base	Live reported	Variance vs reported	Adjustment size	Why lower / higher?
FCF (TTM)	$8.7B FY2025 model base	$10.1B Live reported TTM	-$1.4B / -14%	Moderate adjustment	Model base is lower than live reported because cash generation is being smoothed for timing effects rather than taken at face value. It normalizes content-spend timing and parks investment cycles.
Net Cash / (Debt)	($31.5B) FY2025 model base	($41.7B) Live reported balance sheet	+$10.2B / +11% of revenue	Large analyst adjustment	Model base is less conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure because the latest reported balance does not appear fully representative. It keeps leverage visible until cash generation and debt reduction are more durable.
Operating Margin	14.5% FY2025 model base	18.6% Live reported margin	-4.1 pts	Moderate adjustment	Model base is lower than live reported because current margin strength is not being treated as a permanent through-cycle outcome. It assumes continued streaming and cost discipline, but not a straight-line return to peak media economics.
Revenue (TTM)	$93.7B FY2025 model base	$94.4B Live reported TTM	-$700.0M / -1%	Close to reported	Model base is lower than live reported because the thesis does not carry the current revenue run-rate straight into the durable operating base. It smooths parks, streaming, studio release timing, and media-cycle volatility.

Near-term catalysts

Streaming margin progress and parks demand commentary remain key.

Studio slate performance can affect near-term sentiment.

Capital allocation and debt reduction updates matter for valuation support.

What we are watching

Whether streaming profitability is durable rather than one-period cost control.

How parks demand holds as consumer spending normalizes.

Whether legacy media pressure continues to fade or re-accelerates.

Date	Event	Published rating	Note
Jun 13, 2026	New	Hold	Started coverage with a Hold view on recovery progress versus still-mixed segment and leverage risk.