The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Published Snapshot
Disney adds a major media and entertainment name with high search interest. The initial view is Hold: improving cash generation, but still mixed segment visibility.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Hold signal with low confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against the latest daily scheduled quote of $102 versus $106 fair value, implying +4.5 upside.
Price vs fair value
+4.2%
Model-implied return
Latest daily scheduled quote
$102
Fair value
$106
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $106
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$109 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$105 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$102 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+2.5% YoY
$93.7B
Op. margin
+1.3% pts
14.5%
FCF margin
+0.6% pts
9.3%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$109
NTM P/E Multiple
$105
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$102
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
Low
Latest daily scheduled quote
$102
Fair value
$106
+4.5 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Latest daily scheduled quote
Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 16, 2026, 6:06 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 6:06 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed Jun 16, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 15, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-27.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateParks and streaming can support growth, while legacy media remains pressured.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are improving but still segment-dependent.
Balance sheet
WeakLeverage remains material enough to temper the upside case.
Valuation
ModerateThe spread to fair value is positive but not wide.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateBrand/IP strength is real, but execution complexity is high.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$122
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$106
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile constrain the base case.
Bear case
$84
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
4.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Parks resilience and pricing power remain important cash-flow supports.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 4.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For The Walt Disney Company, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.6%
+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage remains a valuation constraint despite improving cash flow
Operating Margin (Year 5)
15.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (14.5%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input assumes continued streaming and cost discipline, but not a straight-line return to peak media economics.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-27.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
Disney is modeled as a multi-segment recovery case where parks resilience and streaming progress help, but media volatility and leverage keep the initial view restrained.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $94.4B | Live reported | $93.7B +2.5% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths parks, streaming, studio release timing, and media-cycle volatility. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 18.6% | Live reported | 14.5% +128 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input assumes continued streaming and cost discipline, but not a straight-line return to peak media economics. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $10.1B | Live reported | $8.7B 9.3% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes content-spend timing and parks investment cycles. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($41.7B) | Live reported | ($31.5B) Leverage remains a valuation constraint despite improving cash flow Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage visible until cash generation and debt reduction are more durable. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $102 versus a base-case fair value of $106, implying +4.5 upside.
Fair value $106 vs. current $102 (+4.5 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $102 to $109.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 14.5%, with +128 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($31.5B), with leverage remains a valuation constraint despite improving cash flow.
Key drivers
Parks resilience and pricing power remain important cash-flow supports.
Streaming profitability and subscriber quality are central to sentiment.
Studio and sports/media execution influence the durability of the recovery.
Key risks
Legacy media pressure could offset streaming and parks improvement.
Content-spend discipline may be difficult to sustain without hurting growth.
Leverage and capital allocation could constrain equity upside.
What would change our view
Cleaner streaming profitability with stable engagement would improve the view.
Further debt reduction and cash-flow consistency would raise confidence.
A renewed media or parks slowdown would weaken the initial base case.
Near-term catalysts
Streaming margin progress and parks demand commentary remain key.
Studio slate performance can affect near-term sentiment.
Capital allocation and debt reduction updates matter for valuation support.
What we are watching
Whether streaming profitability is durable rather than one-period cost control.
How parks demand holds as consumer spending normalizes.
Whether legacy media pressure continues to fade or re-accelerates.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
Watching streaming profitability, parks resilience, studio execution, and debt-adjusted cash generation.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on recovery progress versus still-mixed segment and leverage risk.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Adds a high-interest media name while keeping valuation support tied to cash-flow evidence.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on recovery progress versus still-mixed segment and leverage risk.