Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Published Snapshot
Applied Materials adds a clean semiconductor-equipment anchor for future AMAT versus LRCX comparisons. The initial valuation spread is positive but intentionally moderate.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Hold signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against the latest daily scheduled quote of $586 versus $589 fair value, implying +0.6 upside.
Price vs fair value
+0.5%
Model-implied return
Latest daily scheduled quote
$586
Fair value
$589
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $589
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$596 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$586 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$581 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+14.0% YoY
$31.0B
Op. margin
+1.6% pts
30.6%
FCF margin
+0.3% pts
27.1%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$596
NTM P/E Multiple
$586
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$581
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
Medium
Latest daily scheduled quote
$586
Fair value
$589
+0.6 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Latest daily scheduled quote
Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 16, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.
Filing reference
144 filed Jun 16, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-10-26.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 03:56 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 15:56 UTC.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
StrongAI, leading-edge logic, and memory investment support long-run demand.
Profitability
StrongMargins and returns are strong for the model architecture.
Balance sheet
StrongNet cash provides resilience through equipment cycles.
Valuation
ModerateQuality is recognized in the multiple.
Execution / Resilience
StrongScale and process breadth support competitive resilience.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$651
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are supportive of the upside case.
Base case
$589
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$500
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support remain supportive in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
7.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$14/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Leading-edge foundry, logic, and memory investment drive the cycle.
Terminal Growth
2.7%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.7%, it sits well below the 7.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Applied Materials, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.9%
+/- 0.5% => -$18/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash supports cycle resilience
Operating Margin (Year 5)
31.0%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (30.6%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input anchors to high-quality equipment economics while allowing for cycle volatility.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-10-26.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 03:56 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 15:56 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
Applied Materials is modeled as a high-quality semiconductor equipment franchise with strong cash conversion, but cycle risk keeps the initial upside view restrained.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $28.4B | Live reported | $31.0B +14.0% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths wafer-fab-equipment cycle timing and avoids over-crediting one demand spike. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 29.2% | Live reported | 30.6% +160 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input anchors to high-quality equipment economics while allowing for cycle volatility. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $5.7B | Live reported | $8.4B 27.1% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes working capital and capex timing through semiconductor equipment cycles. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($154.0M) | Live reported | $3.3B Net cash supports cycle resilience Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment gives credit for net cash but does not let it dominate the valuation. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $586 versus a base-case fair value of $589, implying +0.6 upside.
Fair value $589 vs. current $586 (+0.6 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $581 to $596.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 30.6%, with +160 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is $3.3B, with net cash supports cycle resilience.
Key drivers
Leading-edge foundry, logic, and memory investment drive the cycle.
Services and installed-base exposure support resilience through downturns.
Strong margins and cash conversion support the valuation floor.
Key risks
Semiconductor equipment demand can reverse quickly if capex plans slow.
Export controls and China exposure can create abrupt order volatility.
A premium multiple leaves limited room for cycle disappointment.
What would change our view
A wider discount to fair value would make the quality case more compelling.
Evidence of broader equipment demand beyond AI-related pockets would improve confidence.
Order weakness or export-control pressure would reduce conviction.
Near-term catalysts
Order trends and backlog commentary remain the key near-term indicators.
Foundry and memory capex plans can shift the fair-value range.
China/export-control commentary is an important risk monitor.
What we are watching
Whether equipment demand broadens or remains concentrated in a few AI-related categories.
How durable services revenue remains if new equipment orders slow.
Whether margins hold as mix and regional demand shift.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
Watching order quality, China/export risk, and whether AI-driven semiconductor capex broadens.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on strong equipment economics versus a premium cycle-aware valuation.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Sets up a clean AMAT versus LRCX comparison while avoiding an aggressive cycle call.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on strong equipment economics versus a premium cycle-aware valuation.