Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) Published Snapshot
Lam Research adds the natural pair to Applied Materials. The business quality is strong, but the first AnalystScope view avoids over-reading a cycle rebound.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Hold signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against the latest daily scheduled quote of $389 versus $382 fair value, implying -1.7 downside.
Price vs fair value
-1.8%
Model-implied return
Latest daily scheduled quote
$389
Fair value
$382
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $382
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$388 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$380 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$374 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+32.2% YoY
$19.7B
Op. margin
+2.1% pts
31.0%
FCF margin
+0.4% pts
27.9%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$388
NTM P/E Multiple
$380
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$374
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
Medium
Latest daily scheduled quote
$389
Fair value
$382
-1.7 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Latest daily scheduled quote
Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 16, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed Jun 15, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 12, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-06-29.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:07 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:07 UTC.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
StrongCycle recovery and AI-related memory investment support growth.
Profitability
StrongOperating margins and cash conversion are strong.
Balance sheet
StrongNet cash improves cycle resilience.
Valuation
ModerateThe valuation already reflects strong cycle recovery expectations.
Execution / Resilience
StrongInstalled-base and process depth support resilience.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$430
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are supportive of the upside case.
Base case
$382
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$318
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support remain supportive in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
7.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Memory capex and etch/deposition demand remain the key growth drivers.
Terminal Growth
2.7%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.7%, it sits well below the 7.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Lam Research Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
9.0%
+/- 0.5% => -$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash position supports cycle flexibility
Operating Margin (Year 5)
31.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (31.0%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input reflects strong process-equipment economics but keeps cycle sensitivity visible.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-06-29.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:07 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:07 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
Lam Research is modeled as a high-quality process-equipment name with strong margin support, but memory-cycle volatility keeps the initial rating measured.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $18.4B | Live reported | $19.7B +32.2% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths memory and foundry equipment cycle timing rather than extrapolating the current rebound. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 32.0% | Live reported | 31.0% +211 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input reflects strong process-equipment economics but keeps cycle sensitivity visible. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $5.4B | Live reported | $5.5B 27.9% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes working capital and order timing through the equipment cycle. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $1.0B | Live reported | $1.1B Net cash position supports cycle flexibility Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment recognizes net cash without using it as the primary thesis driver. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $389 versus a base-case fair value of $382, implying -1.7 downside.
Fair value $382 vs. current $389 (-1.7 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $374 to $388.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 31.0%, with +211 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is $1.1B, with net cash position supports cycle flexibility.
Key drivers
Memory capex and etch/deposition demand remain the key growth drivers.
Installed-base service revenue supports cash-flow quality.
Strong margins help offset cycle volatility.
Key risks
Memory equipment demand can weaken quickly if customer capex plans reset.
Export restrictions can pressure regional demand and visibility.
A strong recent stock move leaves less margin for disappointment.
What would change our view
Broader demand confirmation across memory and foundry would improve conviction.
A wider valuation discount would make the quality story more attractive.
Order weakness or margin pressure would keep the rating restrained.
Near-term catalysts
Order and backlog commentary are the clearest near-term catalysts.
Memory capex plans can move the valuation range quickly.
Export-control updates remain a key risk indicator.
What we are watching
Whether the current recovery is broad-based or concentrated in a few customers.
How stable service revenue remains if new tool demand cools.
Whether margins hold through regional and product mix shifts.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
Watching memory capex durability, export controls, and whether the cycle rebound remains broad.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on strong process-equipment economics versus cycle and valuation risk.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Creates a direct semiconductor-equipment pair without forcing a cycle-timing call.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on strong process-equipment economics versus cycle and valuation risk.