Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Published Snapshot
Merck adds a high-quality pharma name with cleaner model fit than more specialized health-care cases. The first view is balanced around cash flow and pipeline risk.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Hold signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $119 versus $126 fair value, implying +5.7 upside.
Price vs fair value
+5.8%
Model-implied return
Stale scheduled quote
$119
Fair value
$126
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $126
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$128 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$125 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$122 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+3.1% YoY
$66.2B
Op. margin
+1.0% pts
27.0%
FCF margin
+0.2% pts
17.1%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$128
NTM P/E Multiple
$125
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$122
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$119
Fair value
$126
+5.7 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 15, 2026, 7:33 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 16, 2026, 7:33 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed Jun 2, 2026 | Reporting period May 29, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 03:56 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 15:56 UTC.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth is supported by key franchises but faces product-cycle risk.
Profitability
StrongPharma margins and cash generation remain strong.
Balance sheet
ModerateDebt is manageable but relevant after portfolio investment.
Valuation
ModerateThe valuation looks reasonable but not deeply discounted.
Execution / Resilience
ModeratePipeline execution matters as key franchises mature.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$140
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$126
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$100
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
3.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Strong cash generation supports valuation even as growth normalizes.
Terminal Growth
2.0%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.0%, it sits well below the 3.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Merck & Co., Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.2%
+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Pipeline investment and acquisition activity keep leverage relevant
Operating Margin (Year 5)
28.0%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (27.0%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input normalizes R&D and acquisition-related volatility while keeping pharma reinvestment needs visible.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 03:56 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 15:56 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
Merck is modeled as a mature pharmaceutical compounder with strong cash flow but real product-concentration and pipeline transition risk.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $65.0B | Live reported | $66.2B +3.1% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths product-cycle, vaccine, and portfolio transition timing. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | Unavailable | Unavailable | 27.0% +103 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input normalizes R&D and acquisition-related volatility while keeping pharma reinvestment needs visible. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $12.4B | Live reported | $11.3B 17.1% margin Adjustment: FCF input smooths working-capital and tax timing without ignoring pipeline investment. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($43.6B) | Live reported | ($25.5B) Pipeline investment and acquisition activity keep leverage relevant Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps acquisition-related debt and pipeline funding requirements explicit. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $119 versus a base-case fair value of $126, implying +5.7 upside.
Fair value $126 vs. current $119 (+5.7 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $122 to $128.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 27.0%, with +103 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($25.5B), with pipeline investment and acquisition activity keep leverage relevant.
Key drivers
Keytruda durability and life-cycle management remain central to revenue quality.
Pipeline and business-development execution drive the post-concentration story.
Strong cash generation supports valuation even as growth normalizes.
Key risks
Product concentration and future loss-of-exclusivity risk remain meaningful.
Pipeline misses could weaken the medium-term growth bridge.
Acquisition spending could reduce balance-sheet flexibility.
What would change our view
Clearer pipeline evidence would improve confidence in the post-Keytruda bridge.
A wider discount to fair value would make the cash-flow story more compelling.
Pipeline setbacks or weaker core-franchise growth would reduce conviction.
Near-term catalysts
Pipeline updates and regulatory milestones remain key.
Core franchise growth and vaccine demand are important operating signals.
Business-development discipline can affect confidence in the medium-term bridge.
What we are watching
Whether pipeline progress is enough to offset future concentration risk.
How durable core franchise growth remains against tougher comps.
Whether cash generation stays strong while reinvestment remains elevated.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
Watching Keytruda durability, pipeline milestones, and whether cash flow can fund the next growth bridge.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on strong pharma cash flow versus pipeline and concentration risk.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Adds a mature pharma anchor while avoiding specialized health-care model complexity.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on strong pharma cash flow versus pipeline and concentration risk.