NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Published Snapshot
Nike adds high search interest and useful consumer-brand comparison value, but it remains a turnaround-style Hold until revenue quality and product momentum improve.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Hold signal with low confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against the latest daily scheduled quote of $45 versus $47 fair value, implying +4.3 upside.
Price vs fair value
+4.0%
Model-implied return
Latest daily scheduled quote
$45
Fair value
$47
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $47
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$48 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$47 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$46 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
-4.7% YoY
$49.0B
Op. margin
-1.1% pts
10.2%
FCF margin
-0.2% pts
8.2%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$48
NTM P/E Multiple
$47
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$46
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
Low
Latest daily scheduled quote
$45
Fair value
$47
+4.3 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Latest daily scheduled quote
Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 16, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed Jun 12, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 10, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 3:34 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 3:34 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:08 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:08 UTC.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
WeakRevenue momentum remains pressured during the brand reset.
Profitability
ModerateMargins can recover, but evidence is still early.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is manageable and not the main constraint.
Valuation
ModerateThe lower stock price helps, but the model still needs turnaround proof.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateBrand equity is valuable, though execution risk is elevated.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$57
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends currently constrain the upside case.
Base case
$47
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$36
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
3.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$2/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Product innovation and wholesale/direct channel balance drive the recovery case.
Terminal Growth
2.4%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$2/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.4%, it sits well below the 3.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For NIKE, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.7%
+/- 0.5% => -$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Balance sheet is manageable but not the core upside driver
Operating Margin (Year 5)
12.0%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$2/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (10.2%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input reflects a measured turnaround path rather than an immediate return to prior peak profitability.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:08 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:08 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
Nike is modeled as a brand-turnaround case with still-fragile revenue momentum and a fair-value range that depends heavily on margin recovery evidence.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $46.3B | Live reported | $49.0B -4.7% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths the current product-cycle reset and avoids treating one weak demand period as permanent. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | Unavailable | Unavailable | 10.2% -108 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input reflects a measured turnaround path rather than an immediate return to prior peak profitability. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $3.3B | Live reported | $4.0B 8.2% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes inventory and demand-generation spending during the brand reset. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($1.4B) | Live reported | ($2.0B) Balance sheet is manageable but not the core upside driver Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps the modest net-debt position neutral rather than a source of upside. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $45 versus a base-case fair value of $47, implying +4.3 upside.
Fair value $47 vs. current $45 (+4.3 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $46 to $48.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 10.2%, with -108 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($2.0B), with balance sheet is manageable but not the core upside driver.
Key drivers
Product innovation and wholesale/direct channel balance drive the recovery case.
Gross-margin repair depends on cleaner inventory and less promotional pressure.
Brand relevance in running, basketball, and lifestyle categories remains central.
Key risks
Turnaround efforts may take longer than the current valuation assumes.
Competitive pressure from specialist and emerging brands could keep growth muted.
Inventory or promotional pressure could delay margin recovery.
What would change our view
Clear evidence of revenue stabilization would improve the setup.
A stronger gross-margin recovery without heavy discounting would raise conviction.
Further share loss or channel disruption would keep the rating restrained.
Near-term catalysts
Quarterly revenue trajectory and management commentary on product pipeline remain key.
Inventory quality and gross-margin bridge will matter for the model.
Wholesale partner commentary can help confirm whether demand is stabilizing.
What we are watching
Whether product launches are improving demand rather than only clearing inventory.
How quickly direct and wholesale channels rebalance.
Whether management can protect brand equity while restoring growth.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
Watching product momentum, channel cleanup, and whether margin recovery can arrive without weakening the brand.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on brand turnaround optionality versus weak current revenue momentum.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Keeps the initial valuation grounded until the turnaround has cleaner evidence.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on brand turnaround optionality versus weak current revenue momentum.