Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Published Snapshot
Starbucks adds a high-search restaurant and consumer-brand name with useful comparison value against McDonald's and staples brands. The initial view is constructive but not aggressive.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Hold signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against the latest daily scheduled quote of $102 versus $108 fair value, implying +6.1 upside.
Price vs fair value
+6.3%
Model-implied return
Latest daily scheduled quote
$102
Fair value
$108
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $108
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$110 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$107 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$104 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+5.2% YoY
$38.1B
Op. margin
+0.3% pts
15.2%
FCF margin
+0.5% pts
11.3%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$110
NTM P/E Multiple
$107
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$104
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
Medium
Latest daily scheduled quote
$102
Fair value
$108
+6.1 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Latest daily scheduled quote
Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 16, 2026, 6:09 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 6:09 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed Jun 15, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 11, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-28.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 03:56 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 15:56 UTC.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateStore base and brand support growth, while traffic recovery still needs evidence.
Profitability
ModerateMargins can recover, but labor, mix, and reinvestment keep the path uneven.
Balance sheet
WeakDebt and capital returns constrain downside support.
Valuation
ModerateThe valuation does not leave a wide enough spread for a stronger initial rating.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateBrand strength helps, but execution consistency is the key variable.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$122
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$108
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$88
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
5.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: International unit growth remains a meaningful long-term support if local execution improves.
Terminal Growth
2.6%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.6%, it sits well below the 5.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Starbucks Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.3%
+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Debt-funded capital returns keep balance-sheet posture restrained
Operating Margin (Year 5)
16.2%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (15.2%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input assumes measured recovery rather than immediate return to peak restaurant-level leverage.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-28.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 03:56 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 15:56 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
Starbucks is treated as a mature global restaurant brand with recovery optionality, but the base case does not assume an instant traffic or margin reset.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $37.2B | Live reported | $38.1B +5.2% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths traffic, ticket, and store-opening timing across the current turnaround period. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 7.9% | Live reported | 15.2% +31 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input assumes measured recovery rather than immediate return to peak restaurant-level leverage. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $2.4B | Live reported | $4.3B 11.3% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes store investment and working-capital timing while keeping reinvestment visible. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($13.5B) | Live reported | ($21.2B) Debt-funded capital returns keep balance-sheet posture restrained Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps debt-funded capital returns explicit in the valuation support. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $102 versus a base-case fair value of $108, implying +6.1 upside.
Fair value $108 vs. current $102 (+6.1 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $104 to $110.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 15.2%, with +31 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($21.2B), with debt-funded capital returns keep balance-sheet posture restrained.
Key drivers
Traffic stabilization and frequency recovery are the most important operating drivers.
International unit growth remains a meaningful long-term support if local execution improves.
Margin recovery depends on labor productivity, menu mix, and reinvestment discipline.
Key risks
Traffic weakness could persist if value perception and service speed do not improve.
China and international execution may remain uneven through the recovery period.
Debt and capital-return posture reduce balance-sheet flexibility.
What would change our view
Sustained transaction growth would make the recovery case stronger.
A wider discount to fair value would improve the risk/reward balance.
Continued margin slippage despite traffic recovery would reduce confidence.
Near-term catalysts
Comparable-store sales and traffic commentary remain the primary near-term signals.
Labor productivity and service-speed updates can shift margin confidence.
International growth and China performance matter for the longer-run base case.
What we are watching
Whether the turnaround is showing up in transaction growth rather than only pricing.
How quickly margin improvement follows operational changes.
Whether international unit growth can offset mature-market pressure.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
Watching traffic recovery, service execution, international growth, and debt-adjusted cash generation.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on brand recovery potential versus still-unproven traffic and margin repair.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Adds a restaurant/consumer-brand comparison point while keeping the initial view evidence-led.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on brand recovery potential versus still-unproven traffic and margin repair.