SBUX
Starbucks Corporation
Consumer Discretionary / Restaurants / Seattle, WA
AnalystScope signal
Hold
Scheduled quote
$105
Base fair value
$108
Bear / base / bull
$88 / $108 / $122
Upside / downside
+2.4 upside
Confidence
Low
Research updated Jun 13, 2026
Daily scheduled refresh as of Aug 1, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Aug 2, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.
Informational research only. Not personalized investment advice.
Investment summary
Current view and thesis
Starbucks adds a high-search restaurant and consumer-brand name with useful comparison value against McDonald's and staples brands. The initial view is constructive but not aggressive.
Fair value $108 vs. current $105 (+2.4 upside). Current base fair value is $108 versus $105, implying +2.4 upside.
Key drivers
Traffic stabilization and frequency recovery are the most important operating drivers.
International unit growth remains a meaningful long-term support if local execution improves.
Margin recovery depends on labor productivity, menu mix, and reinvestment discipline.
Key risks
Traffic weakness could persist if value perception and service speed do not improve.
China and international execution may remain uneven through the recovery period.
Debt and capital-return posture reduce balance-sheet flexibility.
What would change the view
Sustained transaction growth would make the recovery case stronger.
A wider discount to fair value would improve the risk/reward balance.
Continued margin slippage despite traffic recovery would reduce confidence.
Valuation
Price, range, and method support
Base case $108 / +2.4 upside / low confidence
Price vs fair value
+2.6%
Model-implied return
Scheduled quote
$105
Fair value
$108
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $108
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$110 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$107 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$104 | 20%
| Case / method | Value | Weight / support |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $110 | 45% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $107 | 35% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $104 | 20% |
| Bear case | $88 | Mixed |
| Base case | $108 | Mixed |
| Bull case | $122 | Mixed |
Fundamental analysis
Reported evidence and normalized model base
Normalized annual basis: FY2025
Normalized figures are AnalystScope's annual valuation model base.
| Normalized metric | Latest value | Growth / margin context |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $38.1B | +5.2% YoY |
| Operating income | $5.8B | 15.2% margin |
| Net income | $4.1B | EPS proxy $3.62 |
| Free cash flow | $4.3B | 11.3% margin |
| EBITDA | $7.4B | 19.4% margin |
| Net cash / (debt) | -$21.2B | -55.6% of revenue |
| Metric | Reported | AnalystScope normalized | Basis note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $37.2B | $38.1B | Model revenue smooths traffic, ticket, and store-opening timing across the current turnaround period. |
| Operating Margin | 7.9% | 15.2% | Margin input assumes measured recovery rather than immediate return to peak restaurant-level leverage. |
| FCF (TTM) | $2.4B | $4.3B | FCF input normalizes store investment and working-capital timing while keeping reinvestment visible. |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($9.8B) | ($21.2B) | Balance-sheet treatment keeps debt-funded capital returns explicit in the valuation support. |
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+5.2% YoY
$38.1B
Op. margin
+0.3% pts
15.2%
FCF margin
+0.5% pts
11.3%
Revenue + margin trend
Annual normalized model-base history.
Revenue
Operating margin
AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $36.0B | $36.2B | $38.1B |
| Gross Profit | $9.7B | $9.9B | $10.6B |
| Operating Income | $6.0B | $5.4B | $5.8B |
| EBITDA | $7.4B | $6.9B | $7.4B |
| Net Income | $4.2B | $3.8B | $4.1B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $3.5B | $3.8B | $4.0B |
| Total Debt | $24.0B | $25.0B | $25.2B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($20.5B) | ($21.2B) | ($21.2B) |
| Total Assets | $31.0B | $32.0B | $33.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $30.0B | $30.8B | $31.5B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.5B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $6.0B | $6.1B | $6.5B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($2.2B) | ($2.2B) | ($2.2B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.8B | $3.9B | $4.3B |
Model assumptions
Base-case inputs and sensitivity
Published AnalystScope assumptions; private edits do not change this base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
5.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: International unit growth remains a meaningful long-term support if local execution improves.
Terminal Growth
2.6%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.6%, it sits well below the 5.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Starbucks Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.3%
+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Debt-funded capital returns keep balance-sheet posture restrained
Operating Margin (Year 5)
16.2%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (15.2%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input assumes measured recovery rather than immediate return to peak restaurant-level leverage.
Sensitivity drivers
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
5.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh
Terminal Growth
2.6%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
WACC
8.3%
+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh
Operating Margin (Year 5)
16.2%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Confidence
Low
Method outputs are tightly grouped at +5.6% dispersion.
Why the model view could be wrong
Traffic weakness could persist if value perception and service speed do not improve.
China and international execution may remain uneven through the recovery period.
Debt and capital-return posture reduce balance-sheet flexibility.
Private analysis
Test your own assumptions in Scenario Builder
Private scenarios remain separate from AnalystScope's published base case.
Private workspace
Scenario Builder
Private scenario sandbox
This is a private modelling layer, not the public AnalystScope base case or printable snapshot. It keeps the public base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates your scenario fair-value estimate immediately.
Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for SBUX. Base-case rationale remains in the public assumptions section above. Your scenario output reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the AnalystScope framework.
Editable assumptions
Adjust your scenario inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the public AnalystScope base case.
This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.
Matches the published AnalystScope base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Public AnalystScope base case: 5.5% | +/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh
Allowed range: 0.0% to 11.5%
Terminal Growth
Public AnalystScope base case: 2.6% | +/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Allowed range: 1.1% to 4.1%
WACC
Public AnalystScope base case: 8.3% | +/- 0.5% => -$5/sh
Allowed range: 6.3% to 10.3%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Public AnalystScope base case: 16.2% | +/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Allowed range: 8.2% to 24.2%
Saved private scenarios
Save up to 5 named scenarios for SBUX. These are your scenarios: they never overwrite the public AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.
Checking private workspace session...
Private scenario note
Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.
0 / 280
Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.
No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.
Published base case
Fair value
$108
Upside / Downside
+2.4 upside
Model signal
Hold
Published base-case output
Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.
Fair value
$108
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
+2.4 upside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Hold
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Method movement inside the scenario
This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.
Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.
Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.
| Method | Published base | Edited scenario | Delta | How it moved / main drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF (Base) DCF-style | 45% weight | $110 | $110 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style | 35% weight | $107 | $107 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple | 20% weight | $104 | $104 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Weighted fair value Published framework result | Published framework result | $108 | $108 | -$0/sh | Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way. |
Published base case vs private scenarios
Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.
Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.
Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR (5Y) | Terminal Growth | WACC | Op. Margin (Y5) | Fair Value | Upside / Downside | Model Signal | Delta vs Base | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AnalystScope base case PublishedOfficial AnalystScope anchor row. | 5.5% | 2.6% | 8.3% | 16.2% | $108 | +2.4 upside | Hold | Published anchor |
Supporting research
Quality, normalization, and monitoring evidence
Annual model base: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateStore base and brand support growth, while traffic recovery still needs evidence.
Profitability
ModerateMargins can recover, but labor, mix, and reinvestment keep the path uneven.
Balance sheet
WeakDebt and capital returns constrain downside support.
Valuation
ModerateThe valuation does not leave a wide enough spread for a stronger initial rating.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateBrand strength helps, but execution consistency is the key variable.
Current source status
Quote: Daily scheduled refresh as of Aug 1, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Aug 2, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.
Reported fundamentals: Fundamentals refreshed 1 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC. Fresh through 2 Aug 2026, 04:00 UTC.
Latest filing: 10-Q filed Jul 29, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 28, 2026. Filing refreshed Aug 1, 2026, 4:26 PM UTC. Fresh through Aug 2, 2026, 4:26 AM UTC.
Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+5.2%
Gross margin
27.8%
Operating margin
15.2%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+0.3 pts
EBITDA margin
19.4%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+0.4 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+7.4%
Net margin
10.8%
FCF margin
11.3%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+0.5 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+10.3%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$4.0B
Total debt
$25.2B
Net cash / (debt)
Net debt $21.2B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net debt 55.6% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (-0.8 pts)
95.5%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
12.6 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.6x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.9x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
1.0x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (-0.3 pts)
5.8%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (-2.2 pts)
33.8%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (-0.1x)
1.4x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.2x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
3.9%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
1.2x
Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.
Adjustment focus
Large analyst adjustmentCash flow | FCF (TTM) | +$1.9B / +79%
Revenue momentum
Improving+5.2% latest 1Y growth
vs +0.6% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Stable15.2% latest margin
+31 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Stable11.3% latest FCF margin
+51 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StableNet debt 55.6% of revenue
vs Net debt 58.6% of revenue prior FY
How to read this
Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.
This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.
Why the model base differs
Starbucks is treated as a mature global restaurant brand with recovery optionality, but the base case does not assume an instant traffic or margin reset.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.
| Metric | Model base | Live reported | Variance vs reported | Adjustment size | Why lower / higher? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF (TTM) | $4.3B FY2025 model base | $2.4B Live reported TTM | +$1.9B / +79% | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest cash-flow drag is fully durable. It normalizes store investment and working-capital timing while keeping reinvestment visible. |
Net Cash / (Debt) | ($21.2B) FY2025 model base | ($9.8B) Live reported balance sheet | -$11.4B / -31% of revenue | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is more conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure. It keeps debt-funded capital returns explicit in the valuation support. |
Operating Margin | 15.2% FY2025 model base | 7.9% Live reported margin | +7.3 pts | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest reported margin pressure is the durable earnings base. It assumes measured recovery rather than immediate return to peak restaurant-level leverage. |
Revenue (TTM) | $38.1B FY2025 model base | $37.2B Live reported TTM | +$900.0M / +2% | Close to reported | Model base is higher than live reported because the thesis does not assume the latest reported softness is the durable revenue run-rate. It smooths traffic, ticket, and store-opening timing across the current turnaround period. |
Near-term catalysts
Comparable-store sales and traffic commentary remain the primary near-term signals.
Labor productivity and service-speed updates can shift margin confidence.
International growth and China performance matter for the longer-run base case.
What we are watching
Whether the turnaround is showing up in transaction growth rather than only pricing.
How quickly margin improvement follows operational changes.
Whether international unit growth can offset mature-market pressure.
| Date | Event | Published rating | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | New | Hold | Started coverage with a Hold view on brand recovery potential versus still-unproven traffic and margin repair. |