Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) Published Snapshot
Lowe's adds a clean home-improvement comparison point to Home Depot. The initial view is balanced: durable cash generation, but still tied to housing and repair/remodel demand.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Hold signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against the latest daily scheduled quote of $220 versus $234 fair value, implying +6.3 upside.
Price vs fair value
+6.3%
Model-implied return
Latest daily scheduled quote
$220
Fair value
$234
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $234
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$238 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$232 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$229 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2026
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+1.3% YoY
$84.8B
Op. margin
+0.2% pts
12.1%
FCF margin
+0.1% pts
9.8%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$238
NTM P/E Multiple
$232
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$229
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
Medium
Latest daily scheduled quote
$220
Fair value
$234
+6.3 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Latest daily scheduled quote
Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 16, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC.
Filing reference
144 filed Jun 16, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-01-30.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth is steady but housing-cycle dependent.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are healthy for retail, though not expanding aggressively.
Balance sheet
WeakDebt is manageable but large enough to keep the model conservative.
Valuation
ModerateThe current price sits close enough to fair value for a restrained initial view.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateScale and merchandising help, but macro demand remains important.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$260
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$234
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile constrain the base case.
Bear case
$198
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
3.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2026.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Repair/remodel demand and housing turnover remain the main revenue sensitivity.
Terminal Growth
2.2%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.2%, it sits well below the 3.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Lowe's Companies, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.5%
+/- 0.5% => -$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Debt load is manageable but material versus revenue
Operating Margin (Year 5)
12.4%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (12.1%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input keeps the base case anchored to mature home-improvement economics and avoids assuming rapid leverage.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-01-30.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
Lowe's is modeled as a mature, cash-generative home-improvement retailer with cyclical demand sensitivity and a debt load that limits rating aggressiveness.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $86.3B | Live reported | $84.8B +1.3% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths housing-cycle and DIY demand timing rather than extrapolating one weak remodel period. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 11.8% | Live reported | 12.1% +20 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input keeps the base case anchored to mature home-improvement economics and avoids assuming rapid leverage. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $7.7B | Live reported | $8.3B 9.8% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes inventory and working-capital swings that can move sharply through housing cycles. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($4.5B) | Live reported | ($34.9B) Debt load is manageable but material versus revenue Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps Lowe's debt load visible despite strong cash conversion. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $220 versus a base-case fair value of $234, implying +6.3 upside.
Fair value $234 vs. current $220 (+6.3 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $229 to $238.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 12.1%, with +20 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($34.9B), with debt load is manageable but material versus revenue.
Key drivers
Repair/remodel demand and housing turnover remain the main revenue sensitivity.
Professional customer penetration can support mix and productivity if execution improves.
Cash conversion remains the strongest support for the valuation floor.
Key risks
A prolonged housing slowdown could pressure comparable sales and margin leverage.
Debt and buyback intensity leave less room for execution disappointment.
Competitive pressure from Home Depot and broadline retail could limit share gains.
What would change our view
A wider discount to fair value would make the cash-generation story more compelling.
Evidence of durable pro-customer share gains would improve growth confidence.
Further demand softness or weaker cash conversion would lower conviction.
Near-term catalysts
Comparable-sales trends and pro-customer commentary remain the nearest model inputs.
Inventory productivity and gross-margin comments can shift the cash-flow view.
Housing turnover and repair/remodel indicators matter for demand normalization.
What we are watching
Whether demand stabilizes without requiring heavy promotional activity.
How Lowe's closes the execution gap versus Home Depot in pro categories.
Whether free cash flow remains resilient as the housing backdrop normalizes.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
Watching housing-cycle demand, pro-customer traction, and whether cash conversion stays strong enough to offset leverage.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on durable cash generation versus cyclical demand and leverage.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Creates a clean future LOW versus HD comparison without forcing a stronger rating.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on durable cash generation versus cyclical demand and leverage.