AnalystScope equity researchCurrent company view

FDX

FedEx Corporation

Industrials / Air Freight & Logistics / Memphis, TN

View printable snapshot

AnalystScope signal

Sell

Scheduled quote

$307

Base fair value

$269

Bear / base / bull

$203 / $269 / $307

Upside / downside

-12.6 downside

Confidence

Medium

Research updated Jun 13, 2026

Daily scheduled refresh as of Aug 1, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Aug 2, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.

Informational research only. Not personalized investment advice.

Model vs published view

Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.

Investment summary

Current view and thesis

FedEx Corporation is added as a high-quality large-cap coverage candidate with global parcel, express, and freight network exposure with operating leverage to volume and mix. The initial AnalystScope view weighs volume stabilization, network productivity, and pricing discipline against turnaround upside still depends on visible demand and margin recovery, keeping the rating restrained until the model has more live refresh history.

Fair value $269 vs. current $307 (-12.6 downside). Current base fair value is $269 versus $307, implying -12.6 downside.

Key drivers

Network optimization can improve margin quality if volumes stabilize.

Pricing discipline helps offset labor and transportation cost pressure.

Global logistics scale remains strategically valuable.

Key risks

Weak package or freight demand would limit recovery.

Cost actions may take longer to convert into durable margin gains.

Capital intensity can weigh on free cash flow in softer periods.

What would change the view

A clearer evidence base around volume stabilization, network productivity, and pricing discipline would improve confidence.

A deterioration in cost actions and network optimization can rebuild margins from a muted base would reduce support for the current fair value.

A wider gap between price and normalized cash-flow support would make the rating harder to defend.

Valuation

Price, range, and method support

Base case $269 / -12.6 downside / medium confidence

Price vs fair value

-12.5%

Model-implied return

Scheduled quote

$307

Fair value

$269

Valuation method stack

Weighted fair value $269

Published method weights

DCF (Base)

$273 | 45%

NTM P/E Multiple

$268 | 35%

EV/EBITDA Cross-check

$259 | 20%

Case / method	Value	Weight / support
DCF (Base)	$273	45%
NTM P/E Multiple	$268	35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check	$259	20%
Bear case	$203	Constrained
Base case	$269	Constrained
Bull case	$307	Mixed

Fundamental analysis

Reported evidence and normalized model base

Normalized annual basis: FY2025

Download reported financials CSV Download normalized financials CSV

Normalized figures are AnalystScope's annual valuation model base.

Normalized metric	Latest value	Growth / margin context
Revenue	$89.0B	+1.5% YoY
Operating income	$7.1B	8.0% margin
Net income	$4.6B	EPS proxy $18.92
Free cash flow	$4.2B	4.7% margin
EBITDA	$11.3B	12.7% margin
Net cash / (debt)	-$13.5B	-15.2% of revenue

Metric	Reported	AnalystScope normalized	Basis note
Revenue (TTM)	$94.7B	$89.0B	Model revenue smooths short-term demand, timing, and segment-mix volatility rather than treating the latest period as a straight-line run rate.
Operating Margin	5.8%	8.0%	Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects.
FCF (TTM)	$5.1B	$4.2B	FCF input normalizes working-capital and capital-spending timing so cash conversion is not over-read from one period.
Net Cash / (Debt)	($11.7B)	($13.5B)	Balance-sheet input uses a conservative net cash / debt posture without assuming all cash is excess or fully distributable.

Fundamental snapshot

FY2025

Normalized annual model base

Revenue

+1.5% YoY

$89.0B

Op. margin

+0.6% pts

8.0%

FCF margin

+0.6% pts

4.7%

Revenue + margin trend

Annual normalized model-base history.

Revenue

2023

2024

2025

Operating margin

2023

2024

2025

AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.

Income statement

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	$90.2B	$87.7B	$89.0B
Gross Profit	$18.9B	$18.9B	$19.6B
Operating Income	$6.2B	$6.5B	$7.1B
EBITDA	$10.5B	$10.7B	$11.3B
Net Income	$4.1B	$4.3B	$4.6B

Balance sheet

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Cash & Investments	$6.9B	$7.2B	$7.5B
Total Debt	$20.0B	$20.5B	$21.0B
Net Cash / (Debt)	($13.1B)	($13.3B)	($13.5B)
Total Assets	$86.0B	$87.0B	$88.0B
Total Liabilities	$61.0B	$61.0B	$61.0B
Shareholders' Equity	$25.0B	$26.0B	$27.0B

Cash flow

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Operating Cash Flow	$8.1B	$8.2B	$8.5B
Depreciation & Amortization	$4.3B	$4.2B	$4.2B
Capital Expenditures	($5.2B)	($4.6B)	($4.3B)
Free Cash Flow	$2.9B	$3.6B	$4.2B

Model assumptions

Base-case inputs and sensitivity

Published AnalystScope assumptions; private edits do not change this base case.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

3.0%

+/- 1.0% => +/-$7/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Network optimization can improve margin quality if volumes stabilize.

Terminal Growth

2.1%

+/- 0.5% => +/-$6/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.1%, it sits well below the 3.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For FedEx Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.

WACC

8.4%

+/- 0.5% => -$10/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage is manageable but margin recovery remains central

Operating Margin (Year 5)

9.0%

+/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (8.0%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects.

Sensitivity drivers

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

3.0%

+/- 1.0% => +/-$7/sh

Terminal Growth

2.1%

+/- 0.5% => +/-$6/sh

WACC

8.4%

+/- 0.5% => -$10/sh

Operating Margin (Year 5)

9.0%

+/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh

Confidence

Medium

Method outputs are tightly grouped at +5.2% dispersion.

Why the model view could be wrong

Weak package or freight demand would limit recovery.

Cost actions may take longer to convert into durable margin gains.

Capital intensity can weigh on free cash flow in softer periods.

Private analysis

Test your own assumptions in Scenario Builder

Private scenarios remain separate from AnalystScope's published base case.

Open Scenario Builder

Private workspace

Scenario Builder

Private scenario sandbox

This is a private modelling layer, not the public AnalystScope base case or printable snapshot. It keeps the public base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates your scenario fair-value estimate immediately.

Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for FDX. Base-case rationale remains in the public assumptions section above. Your scenario output reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the AnalystScope framework.

Editable assumptions

Adjust your scenario inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the public AnalystScope base case.

This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.

Matches the published AnalystScope base case.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

Public AnalystScope base case: 3.0% | +/- 1.0% => +/-$7/sh

Allowed range: 0.0% to 9.0%

Terminal Growth

Public AnalystScope base case: 2.1% | +/- 0.5% => +/-$6/sh

Allowed range: 1.0% to 3.6%

WACC

Public AnalystScope base case: 8.4% | +/- 0.5% => -$10/sh

Allowed range: 6.4% to 10.4%

Operating Margin (Year 5)

Public AnalystScope base case: 9.0% | +/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh

Allowed range: 1.0% to 17.0%

Saved private scenarios

Save up to 5 named scenarios for FDX. These are your scenarios: they never overwrite the public AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.

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Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.

No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.

Published base case

Fair value

$269

Upside / Downside

-12.6 downside

Model signal

Sell

Published base-case output

Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.

Fair value

$269

$0/sh vs published base case

Upside / Downside

-12.6 downside

+0.0 pts vs published base case

Model signal

Sell

Unchanged versus the published base case.

Method movement inside the scenario

This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.

Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.

Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.

3 of 3 methods support model-native repricingModel-native bridge

Method	Published base	Edited scenario	Delta	How it moved / main drivers
DCF (Base) DCF-style \| 45% weight	$273	$273	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style \| 35% weight	$268	$268	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple \| 20% weight	$259	$259	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
Weighted fair value Published framework result \| Published framework result	$269	$268	-$1/sh	Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way.

Published base case vs private scenarios

Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.

Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.

Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.

Scenario	Revenue CAGR (5Y)	Terminal Growth	WACC	Op. Margin (Y5)	Fair Value	Upside / Downside	Model Signal	Delta vs Base	Action
AnalystScope base case Published Official AnalystScope anchor row.	3.0%	2.1%	8.4%	9.0%	$269	-12.6 downside	Sell	Published anchor

Supporting research

Quality, normalization, and monitoring evidence

Annual model base: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025

Thesis scorecard

Growth

Moderate

volume stabilization, network productivity, and pricing discipline

Profitability

Strong

cost actions and network optimization can rebuild margins from a muted base

Balance sheet

Moderate

debt is manageable but free-cash-flow recovery matters

Valuation

Moderate

turnaround upside still depends on visible demand and margin recovery

Execution / Resilience

Moderate

package demand, freight softness, and restructuring execution remain the main swing factors

Current source status

Quote: Daily scheduled refresh as of Aug 1, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Aug 2, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.

Reported fundamentals: Fundamentals refreshed 1 Aug 2026, 16:26 UTC. Fresh through 2 Aug 2026, 04:26 UTC.

Latest filing: 8-K filed Jul 24, 2026 | Reporting period Jul 20, 2026. Filing refreshed Aug 1, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC. Fresh through Aug 2, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC.

Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.

Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.

Operating and cash-flow trends

Model-base statements

Revenue growth (1Y)

+1.5%

Gross margin

22.0%

Operating margin

8.0%

Operating margin change vs prior FY

+0.6 pts

EBITDA margin

12.7%

EBITDA margin change vs prior FY

+0.5 pts

Operating income growth (1Y)

+9.2%

Net margin

5.2%

FCF margin

4.7%

FCF margin change vs prior FY

+0.6 pts

FCF growth (1Y)

+16.7%

Balance sheet quality

Model-base statements

Cash & investments

$7.5B

Total debt

$21.0B

Net cash / (debt)

Net debt $13.5B

Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue

Net debt 15.2% of revenue

Liabilities / assets

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.8 pts)

69.3%

Cross-statement quality

Model-base statements

Gross-to-operating spread

14.0 pts

Operating cash flow / net income

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.1x)

1.8x

Operating cash flow / EBITDA

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.0x)

0.8x

Free cash flow / net income

Stable

vs FY2024 (+0.1x)

0.9x

CapEx as % of revenue

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.4 pts)

4.8%

CapEx as % of operating cash flow

Improving

vs FY2024 (-5.5 pts)

50.6%

CapEx / D&A

Stable

vs FY2024 (-0.1x)

1.0x

Cash & investments / total debt

Stable

vs FY2024 (+0.0x)

0.4x

Shareholders' equity as % of revenue

30.3%

Asset turnover

Stable

vs FY2024 (+0.0x)

1.0x

Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.

Adjustment focus

Moderate adjustment

Cash flow | FCF (TTM) | -$900.0M / -18%

Revenue momentum

Improving

+1.5% latest 1Y growth

vs -2.8% prior 1Y

Operating margin trend

Stable

8.0% latest margin

+57 bps vs prior FY

FCF margin trend

Stable

4.7% latest FCF margin

+61 bps vs prior FY

Balance-sheet posture

Stable

Net debt 15.2% of revenue

vs Net debt 15.2% of revenue prior FY

How to read this

Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.

This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.

Why the model base differs

This initial coverage setup keeps valuation tied to durable normalized fundamentals and avoids letting a single recent print dominate the public view.

Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.

Metric	Model base	Live reported	Variance vs reported	Adjustment size	Why lower / higher?
FCF (TTM)	$4.2B FY2025 model base	$5.1B Live reported TTM	-$900.0M / -18%	Moderate adjustment	Model base is lower than live reported because cash generation is being smoothed for timing effects rather than taken at face value. It normalizes working-capital and capital-spending timing so cash conversion is not over-read from one period.
Revenue (TTM)	$89.0B FY2025 model base	$94.7B Live reported TTM	-$5.7B / -6%	Close to reported	Model base is lower than live reported because the thesis does not carry the current revenue run-rate straight into the durable operating base. It smooths short-term demand, timing, and segment-mix volatility rather than treating the latest period as a straight-line run rate.
Operating Margin	8.0% FY2025 model base	5.8% Live reported margin	+2.2 pts	Moderate adjustment	Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest reported margin pressure is the durable earnings base. It uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects.
Net Cash / (Debt)	($13.5B) FY2025 model base	($11.7B) Live reported balance sheet	-$1.8B / -2% of revenue	Close to reported	Model base is more conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure. It balance-sheet input uses a conservative net cash / debt posture without assuming all cash is excess or fully distributable.

Near-term catalysts

Next quarterly update and management commentary on demand quality.

Reported margin, cash-flow conversion, and balance-sheet movement versus the normalized model base.

Daily scheduled quote refreshes that tighten the current price-versus-fair-value read.

What we are watching

Express and Ground margin progression.

Freight demand and yield commentary.

Free-cash-flow conversion after network changes.

Date	Event	Published rating	Note
Jun 13, 2026	New	Hold	Started coverage with a Hold view on logistics recovery potential versus still-needed margin proof.