FedEx Corporation (FDX) Published Snapshot
FedEx Corporation is added as a high-quality large-cap coverage candidate with global parcel, express, and freight network exposure with operating leverage to volume and mix. The initial AnalystScope view weighs volume stabilization, network productivity, and pricing discipline against turnaround upside still depends on visible demand and margin recovery, keeping the rating restrained until the model has more live refresh history.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Sell signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $338 versus $269 fair value, implying -20.6 downside.
Price vs fair value
-20.5%
Model-implied return
Stale scheduled quote
$338
Fair value
$269
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $269
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$273 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$268 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$259 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+1.5% YoY
$89.0B
Op. margin
+0.6% pts
8.0%
FCF margin
+0.6% pts
4.7%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$273
NTM P/E Multiple
$268
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$259
Current workspace signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$338
Fair value
$269
-20.6 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 15, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 16, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC.
Filing reference
3 filed Jun 8, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 8, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:05 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:05 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
Moderatevolume stabilization, network productivity, and pricing discipline
Profitability
Strongcost actions and network optimization can rebuild margins from a muted base
Balance sheet
Moderatedebt is manageable but free-cash-flow recovery matters
Valuation
Moderateturnaround upside still depends on visible demand and margin recovery
Execution / Resilience
Moderatepackage demand, freight softness, and restructuring execution remain the main swing factors
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$307
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$269
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile constrain the base case.
Bear case
$203
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are limited in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
3.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Network optimization can improve margin quality if volumes stabilize.
Terminal Growth
2.1%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.1%, it sits well below the 3.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For FedEx Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.4%
+/- 0.5% => -$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage is manageable but margin recovery remains central
Operating Margin (Year 5)
9.0%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (8.0%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-05-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:05 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:05 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
This initial coverage setup keeps valuation tied to durable normalized fundamentals and avoids letting a single recent print dominate the public view.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $87.9B | Live reported | $89.0B +1.5% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths short-term demand, timing, and segment-mix volatility rather than treating the latest period as a straight-line run rate. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 5.9% | Live reported | 8.0% +57 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $3.0B | Live reported | $4.2B 4.7% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes working-capital and capital-spending timing so cash conversion is not over-read from one period. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $3.9B | Live reported | ($13.5B) Leverage is manageable but margin recovery remains central Adjustment: Balance-sheet input uses a conservative net cash / debt posture without assuming all cash is excess or fully distributable. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $338 versus a base-case fair value of $269, implying -20.6 downside.
Fair value $269 vs. current $338 (-20.6 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $259 to $273.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 8.0%, with +57 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($13.5B), with leverage is manageable but margin recovery remains central.
Key drivers
Network optimization can improve margin quality if volumes stabilize.
Pricing discipline helps offset labor and transportation cost pressure.
Global logistics scale remains strategically valuable.
Key risks
Weak package or freight demand would limit recovery.
Cost actions may take longer to convert into durable margin gains.
Capital intensity can weigh on free cash flow in softer periods.
What would change our view
A clearer evidence base around volume stabilization, network productivity, and pricing discipline would improve confidence.
A deterioration in cost actions and network optimization can rebuild margins from a muted base would reduce support for the current fair value.
A wider gap between price and normalized cash-flow support would make the rating harder to defend.
Near-term catalysts
Next quarterly update and management commentary on demand quality.
Reported margin, cash-flow conversion, and balance-sheet movement versus the normalized model base.
Daily scheduled quote refreshes that tighten the current price-versus-fair-value read.
What we are watching
Express and Ground margin progression.
Freight demand and yield commentary.
Free-cash-flow conversion after network changes.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
New coverage entry focused on volume stabilization, network productivity, and pricing discipline and turnaround upside still depends on visible demand and margin recovery.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on logistics recovery potential versus still-needed margin proof.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Creates a direct UPS versus FDX future comparison without forcing a turnaround call.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on logistics recovery potential versus still-needed margin proof.