AnalystScope equity researchCurrent company view

The Home Depot, Inc.

Consumer Discretionary / Home Improvement Retail / Atlanta, GA

View printable snapshot

AnalystScope signal

Hold

Scheduled quote

$333

Base fair value

$349

Bear / base / bull

$296 / $349 / $382

Upside / downside

+4.8 upside

Confidence

Low

Research updated Apr 10, 2026

Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.

Informational research only. Not personalized investment advice.

Investment summary

Current view and thesis

Home Depot still screens as a high-quality compounding retailer, but the current setup looks more like a disciplined Hold than a wide-gap upside case while the housing backdrop remains mixed.

Fair value $349 vs. current $333 (+4.8 upside). Current base fair value is $349 versus $333, implying +4.8 upside.

Key drivers

Repair-and-remodel demand remains structurally supported even when housing turnover stays uneven.

Scale advantages help preserve margins and inventory discipline through a softer consumer backdrop.

Strong cash generation and disciplined capital returns still provide a credible downside floor.

Key risks

A slower housing and remodeling environment could keep revenue below the current through-cycle base for longer.

Project-ticket weakness or heavier promotions could compress the margin structure faster than expected.

Leverage reduces flexibility if the housing-linked cycle weakens more materially.

What would change the view

A broader improvement in project demand would strengthen confidence in the current fair-value range.

If housing-sensitive demand weakens materially while margins stay under pressure, the Hold case would deteriorate.

A wider discount to fair value would make the quality-retail thesis more attractive.

Valuation

Price, range, and method support

Base case $349 / +4.8 upside / low confidence

Price vs fair value

+4.8%

Model-implied return

Scheduled quote

$333

Fair value

$349

Valuation method stack

Weighted fair value $349

Published method weights

DCF (Base)

$356 | 45%

NTM P/E Multiple

$346 | 35%

EV/EBITDA Cross-check

$339 | 20%

Case / method	Value	Weight / support
DCF (Base)	$356	45%
NTM P/E Multiple	$346	35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check	$339	20%
Bear case	$296	Mixed
Base case	$349	Mixed
Bull case	$382	Mixed

Fundamental analysis

Reported evidence and normalized model base

Normalized annual basis: FY2026

Download reported financials CSV Download normalized financials CSV

Normalized figures are AnalystScope's annual valuation model base.

Normalized metric	Latest value	Growth / margin context
Revenue	$164.7B	+7.9% YoY
Operating income	$23.1B	14.0% margin
Net income	$15.2B	EPS proxy $15.39
Free cash flow	$16.5B	10.0% margin
EBITDA	$25.9B	15.7% margin
Net cash / (debt)	-$43.0B	-26.1% of revenue

Metric	Reported	AnalystScope normalized	Basis note
Revenue (TTM)	$164.7B	$164.7B	Model revenue smooths housing turnover and large-ticket project timing instead of extrapolating any one quarter of macro softness or rebound.
Operating Margin	12.7%	14.0%	Margin input keeps the base on durable retail economics and avoids over-reading temporary shrink, freight, or project-mix swings.
FCF (TTM)	$12.6B	$16.5B	FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and inventory movements that can distort annual conversion in a housing-linked retailer.
Net Cash / (Debt)	($12.3B)	($43.0B)	Balance-sheet treatment remains conservative and does not assume leverage is immaterial just because the cash-generation profile is strong.

Fundamental snapshot

FY2026

Normalized annual model base

Revenue

+7.9% YoY

$164.7B

Op. margin

+0.4% pts

14.0%

FCF margin

+0.5% pts

10.0%

Revenue + margin trend

Annual normalized model-base history.

Revenue

2024

2025

2026

Operating margin

2024

2025

2026

AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026.

Income statement

Line item	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026
Revenue	$157.4B	$152.7B	$164.7B
Gross Profit	$52.4B	$50.5B	$55.0B
Operating Income	$22.8B	$20.8B	$23.1B
EBITDA	$25.5B	$23.4B	$25.9B
Net Income	$16.1B	$13.6B	$15.2B

Balance sheet

Line item	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026
Cash & Investments	$4.0B	$3.5B	$4.0B
Total Debt	$44.0B	$46.0B	$47.0B
Net Cash / (Debt)	($40.0B)	($42.5B)	($43.0B)
Total Assets	$76.0B	$78.0B	$80.0B
Total Liabilities	$74.5B	$77.0B	$78.8B
Shareholders' Equity	$1.5B	$1.0B	$1.2B

Cash flow

Line item	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026
Operating Cash Flow	$19.8B	$17.4B	$19.8B
Depreciation & Amortization	$2.7B	$2.6B	$2.8B
Capital Expenditures	($2.8B)	($2.9B)	($3.3B)
Free Cash Flow	$17.0B	$14.5B	$16.5B

Model assumptions

Base-case inputs and sensitivity

Published AnalystScope assumptions; private edits do not change this base case.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

5.0%

+/- 1.0% => +/-$8/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2026.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Repair-and-remodel demand remains structurally supported even when housing turnover stays uneven.

Terminal Growth

2.5%

+/- 0.5% => +/-$6/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 5.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For The Home Depot, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.

WACC

8.6%

+/- 0.5% => -$10/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage remains manageable against durable repair-and-remodel cash generation

Operating Margin (Year 5)

14.5%

+/- 100 bps => +/-$9/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (14.0%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input keeps the base on durable retail economics and avoids over-reading temporary shrink, freight, or project-mix swings.

Sensitivity drivers

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

5.0%

+/- 1.0% => +/-$8/sh

Terminal Growth

2.5%

+/- 0.5% => +/-$6/sh

WACC

8.6%

+/- 0.5% => -$10/sh

Operating Margin (Year 5)

14.5%

+/- 100 bps => +/-$9/sh

Confidence

Low

Method outputs are tightly grouped at +4.9% dispersion.

Why the model view could be wrong

A slower housing and remodeling environment could keep revenue below the current through-cycle base for longer.

Project-ticket weakness or heavier promotions could compress the margin structure faster than expected.

Leverage reduces flexibility if the housing-linked cycle weakens more materially.

Private analysis

Test your own assumptions in Scenario Builder

Private scenarios remain separate from AnalystScope's published base case.

Open Scenario Builder

Private workspace

Scenario Builder

Private scenario sandbox

This is a private modelling layer, not the public AnalystScope base case or printable snapshot. It keeps the public base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates your scenario fair-value estimate immediately.

Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for HD. Base-case rationale remains in the public assumptions section above. Your scenario output reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the AnalystScope framework.

Editable assumptions

Adjust your scenario inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the public AnalystScope base case.

This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.

Matches the published AnalystScope base case.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

Public AnalystScope base case: 5.0% | +/- 1.0% => +/-$8/sh

Allowed range: 0.0% to 11.0%

Terminal Growth

Public AnalystScope base case: 2.5% | +/- 0.5% => +/-$6/sh

Allowed range: 1.0% to 4.0%

WACC

Public AnalystScope base case: 8.6% | +/- 0.5% => -$10/sh

Allowed range: 6.6% to 10.6%

Operating Margin (Year 5)

Public AnalystScope base case: 14.5% | +/- 100 bps => +/-$9/sh

Allowed range: 6.5% to 22.5%

Saved private scenarios

Save up to 5 named scenarios for HD. These are your scenarios: they never overwrite the public AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.

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Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.

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Published base case

Fair value

$349

Upside / Downside

+4.8 upside

Model signal

Hold

Published base-case output

Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.

Fair value

$349

$0/sh vs published base case

Upside / Downside

+4.8 upside

+0.0 pts vs published base case

Model signal

Hold

Unchanged versus the published base case.

Method movement inside the scenario

This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.

Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.

Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.

3 of 3 methods support model-native repricingModel-native bridge

Method	Published base	Edited scenario	Delta	How it moved / main drivers
DCF (Base) DCF-style \| 45% weight	$356	$356	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style \| 35% weight	$346	$346	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple \| 20% weight	$339	$339	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
Weighted fair value Published framework result \| Published framework result	$349	$349	+$0/sh	Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way.

Published base case vs private scenarios

Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.

Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.

Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.

Scenario	Revenue CAGR (5Y)	Terminal Growth	WACC	Op. Margin (Y5)	Fair Value	Upside / Downside	Model Signal	Delta vs Base	Action
AnalystScope base case Published Official AnalystScope anchor row.	5.0%	2.5%	8.6%	14.5%	$349	+4.8 upside	Hold	Published anchor

Supporting research

Quality, normalization, and monitoring evidence

Annual model base: FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026

Thesis scorecard

Growth

Moderate

Growth should improve with a steadier housing backdrop, but the current base is still cyclical rather than fully defensive.

Profitability

Moderate

Margins remain strong for retail, though not immune to a softer project mix.

Balance sheet

Weak

Leverage is manageable, but it still limits balance-sheet flexibility versus a net-cash peer.

Valuation

Moderate

The current multiple is reasonable, but the spread to fair value is still not especially wide.

Execution / Resilience

Strong

Scale, vendor relationships, and category depth support resilience.

Current source status

Quote: Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.

Reported fundamentals: Fundamentals refreshed 21 Jul 2026, 00:39 UTC. Fresh through 21 Jul 2026, 12:39 UTC.

Latest filing: 11-K filed Jun 24, 2026 | Reporting period Dec 31, 2025. Filing refreshed Jul 21, 2026, 1:32 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 21, 2026, 1:32 PM UTC.

Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.

Basis: FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.

Operating and cash-flow trends

Model-base statements

Revenue growth (1Y)

+7.9%

Gross margin

33.4%

Operating margin

14.0%

Operating margin change vs prior FY

+0.4 pts

EBITDA margin

15.7%

EBITDA margin change vs prior FY

+0.4 pts

Operating income growth (1Y)

+11.1%

Net margin

9.2%

FCF margin

10.0%

FCF margin change vs prior FY

+0.5 pts

FCF growth (1Y)

+13.8%

Balance sheet quality

Model-base statements

Cash & investments

$4.0B

Total debt

$47.0B

Net cash / (debt)

Net debt $43.0B

Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue

Net debt 26.1% of revenue

Liabilities / assets

Stable

vs FY2025 (-0.2 pts)

98.5%

Cross-statement quality

Model-base statements

Gross-to-operating spread

19.4 pts

Operating cash flow / net income

Stable

vs FY2025 (+0.0x)

1.3x

Operating cash flow / EBITDA

Stable

vs FY2025 (+0.0x)

0.8x

Free cash flow / net income

Stable

vs FY2025 (+0.0x)

1.1x

CapEx as % of revenue

Stable

vs FY2025 (+0.1 pts)

2.0%

CapEx as % of operating cash flow

Stable

vs FY2025 (+0.0 pts)

16.7%

CapEx / D&A

Stable

vs FY2025 (+0.1x)

1.2x

Cash & investments / total debt

Stable

vs FY2025 (+0.0x)

0.1x

Shareholders' equity as % of revenue

0.7%

Asset turnover

Improving

vs FY2025 (+0.1x)

2.1x

Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.

Adjustment focus

Large analyst adjustment

Cash flow | FCF (TTM) | +$3.9B / +31%

Revenue momentum

Improving

+7.9% latest 1Y growth

vs -3.0% prior 1Y

Operating margin trend

Stable

14.0% latest margin

+40 bps vs prior FY

FCF margin trend

Stable

10.0% latest FCF margin

+52 bps vs prior FY

Balance-sheet posture

Stable

Net debt 26.1% of revenue

vs Net debt 27.8% of revenue prior FY

How to read this

Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.

This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.

Why the model base differs

For Home Depot, the model base is intended to capture durable repair-and-remodel economics through the cycle rather than a straight-line read of housing-sensitive quarterly noise.

Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.

Metric	Model base	Live reported	Variance vs reported	Adjustment size	Why lower / higher?
FCF (TTM)	$16.5B FY2026 model base	$12.6B Live reported TTM	+$3.9B / +31%	Large analyst adjustment	Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest cash-flow drag is fully durable. It adjusts for working-capital timing and inventory movements that can distort annual conversion in a housing-linked retailer.
Net Cash / (Debt)	($43.0B) FY2026 model base	($12.3B) Live reported balance sheet	-$30.7B / -19% of revenue	Large analyst adjustment	Model base is more conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure. It remains conservative and does not assume leverage is immaterial just because the cash-generation profile is strong.
Operating Margin	14.0% FY2026 model base	12.7% Live reported margin	+1.3 pts	Close to reported	Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest reported margin pressure is the durable earnings base. It keeps the base on durable retail economics and avoids over-reading temporary shrink, freight, or project-mix swings.
Revenue (TTM)	$164.7B FY2026 model base	$164.7B Live reported TTM	+$0.0 / +0%	Close to reported	Model base keeps revenue close to live reported because the latest run-rate already looks broadly representative. It smooths housing turnover and large-ticket project timing instead of extrapolating any one quarter of macro softness or rebound.

Near-term catalysts

Comparable sales, pro-customer demand, and larger-ticket project trends remain the clearest near-term signals.

Gross-margin and shrink commentary matter more than a single quarterly revenue beat in this setup.

Any sustained improvement in housing activity would help sentiment on the long-run base.

What we are watching

Whether project demand is broadening or still held back by a softer housing environment.

How much recent margin stability is structural versus supported by temporary cost relief.

Whether the current balance-sheet posture remains comfortable if the cycle stays slower for longer.

Date	Event	Published rating	Note
Apr 10, 2026	New	Hold	Started coverage with a Hold view on durable retail quality versus a still-mixed housing backdrop.