The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)
Home Depot still screens as a high-quality compounding retailer, but the current setup looks more like a disciplined Hold than a wide-gap upside case while the housing backdrop remains mixed.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Buy signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $311 versus $349 fair value, implying +12.4 upside.
Current workspace signal
Buy
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$311
Fair value
$349
+12.4 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:53 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:53 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed May 29, 2026 | Reporting period May 28, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:29 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:29 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-02-01.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth should improve with a steadier housing backdrop, but the current base is still cyclical rather than fully defensive.
Profitability
ModerateMargins remain strong for retail, though not immune to a softer project mix.
Balance sheet
WeakLeverage is manageable, but it still limits balance-sheet flexibility versus a net-cash peer.
Valuation
ModerateThe current multiple is reasonable, but the spread to fair value is still not especially wide.
Execution / Resilience
StrongScale, vendor relationships, and category depth support resilience.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$382
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$349
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$296
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
5.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2026.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Repair-and-remodel demand remains structurally supported even when housing turnover stays uneven.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 5.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For The Home Depot, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.6%
+/- 0.5% => -$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage remains manageable against durable repair-and-remodel cash generation
Operating Margin (Year 5)
14.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (14.0%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input keeps the base on durable retail economics and avoids over-reading temporary shrink, freight, or project-mix swings.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-02-01.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For Home Depot, the model base is intended to capture durable repair-and-remodel economics through the cycle rather than a straight-line read of housing-sensitive quarterly noise.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $164.7B | Live reported | $164.7B +7.9% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths housing turnover and large-ticket project timing instead of extrapolating any one quarter of macro softness or rebound. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 12.7% | Live reported | 14.0% +40 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input keeps the base on durable retail economics and avoids over-reading temporary shrink, freight, or project-mix swings. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $12.6B | Live reported | $16.5B 10.0% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and inventory movements that can distort annual conversion in a housing-linked retailer. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($12.3B) | Live reported | ($43.0B) Leverage remains manageable against durable repair-and-remodel cash generation Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment remains conservative and does not assume leverage is immaterial just because the cash-generation profile is strong. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $311 versus a base-case fair value of $349, implying +12.4 upside.
Fair value $349 vs. current $311 (+12.4 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $339 to $356.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 14.0%, with +40 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($43.0B), with leverage remains manageable against durable repair-and-remodel cash generation.
Key drivers
Repair-and-remodel demand remains structurally supported even when housing turnover stays uneven.
Scale advantages help preserve margins and inventory discipline through a softer consumer backdrop.
Strong cash generation and disciplined capital returns still provide a credible downside floor.
Key risks
A slower housing and remodeling environment could keep revenue below the current through-cycle base for longer.
Project-ticket weakness or heavier promotions could compress the margin structure faster than expected.
Leverage reduces flexibility if the housing-linked cycle weakens more materially.
What would change our view
A broader improvement in project demand would strengthen confidence in the current fair-value range.
If housing-sensitive demand weakens materially while margins stay under pressure, the Hold case would deteriorate.
A wider discount to fair value would make the quality-retail thesis more attractive.
Near-term catalysts
Comparable sales, pro-customer demand, and larger-ticket project trends remain the clearest near-term signals.
Gross-margin and shrink commentary matter more than a single quarterly revenue beat in this setup.
Any sustained improvement in housing activity would help sentiment on the long-run base.
What we are watching
Whether project demand is broadening or still held back by a softer housing environment.
How much recent margin stability is structural versus supported by temporary cost relief.
Whether the current balance-sheet posture remains comfortable if the cycle stays slower for longer.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 10, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 10, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 10, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 10, 2026
Analyst note
Watching project demand, housing sensitivity, and whether retail margin resilience holds through a slower macro patch.
What changed in the report
Apr 10, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view on quality retail with cyclical moderation
Apr 10, 2026
Kept housing-cycle assumptions conservative
Impact: Avoids overstating upside from a single rebound year
Report timeline
Apr 10, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on durable retail quality versus a still-mixed housing backdrop.