The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Coca-Cola remains a durable defensive compounder with strong brand economics, but the current valuation spread still looks closer to Hold than to a high-conviction rerating case.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Hold signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $82 versus $82 fair value, implying -0.0 downside.
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$82
Fair value
$82
-0.0 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:56 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:56 AM UTC.
Filing reference
144 filed Jun 5, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth is steady and price/mix supported rather than unusually fast.
Profitability
StrongBrand power and concentrate economics support excellent margin durability.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is manageable, though not an outright balance-sheet advantage.
Valuation
ModerateThe market already recognizes much of the business quality in the multiple.
Execution / Resilience
StrongGlobal brand reach and category resilience support downside protection.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$88
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$82
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$70
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
4.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Global brand strength and distribution reach keep demand resilient across a wide set of consumer environments.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$2/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 4.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For The Coca-Cola Company, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
7.8%
+/- 0.5% => -$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage remains manageable against durable brand cash generation
Operating Margin (Year 5)
30.2%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (29.9%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input avoids over-reading temporary mix or commodity relief and keeps the base on brand-led economics.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For Coca-Cola, the model base is intended to reflect durable global beverage economics rather than quarter-specific FX, bottler, or commodity noise.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $47.9B | Live reported | $48.2B +2.3% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths concentrate, bottler, and FX timing so the base stays focused on durable global beverage demand. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 28.7% | Live reported | 29.9% +79 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input avoids over-reading temporary mix or commodity relief and keeps the base on brand-led economics. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $5.3B | Live reported | $12.0B 24.9% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and keeps the cash-conversion base conservative. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($29.0B) | Live reported | ($25.5B) Leverage remains manageable against durable brand cash generation Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment does not assume all balance-sheet cash is distributable and keeps leverage framing restrained. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $82 versus a base-case fair value of $82, implying -0.0 downside.
Fair value $82 vs. current $82 (-0.0 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $79 to $83.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 29.9%, with +79 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($25.5B), with leverage remains manageable against durable brand cash generation.
Key drivers
Global brand strength and distribution reach keep demand resilient across a wide set of consumer environments.
High margin durability and strong cash conversion reinforce the defensive valuation floor.
Steady pricing and mix discipline support fair value even without assuming unusually fast volume growth.
Key risks
FX, commodity, or bottler timing can still make reported figures look better or worse than the durable base.
The current premium multiple leaves less room for disappointment than a cheaper staples setup would.
If pricing power weakens while volume stays soft, the current margin confidence could erode.
What would change our view
A wider discount to the current fair-value range would make the defensive case more compelling.
Clearer evidence of sustained volume-led acceleration would improve the setup.
A weaker pricing/mix profile or materially softer cash conversion would reduce confidence in the current Hold view.
Near-term catalysts
Price/mix versus volume commentary remains the clearest near-term driver of sentiment.
Commodity and FX framing still shape confidence in the margin base.
Cash-conversion quality matters more than a single reported revenue print in the current setup.
What we are watching
Whether pricing power remains durable without relying too heavily on volume softness.
How much FX and bottler timing are distorting the current reported picture versus the model base.
Any sign that the current cash-conversion strength is fading as cost pressure shifts.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 9, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 9, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 9, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 9, 2026
Analyst note
Watching price/mix durability, FX and bottler noise, and whether the defensive premium is getting ahead of the durable earnings base.
What changed in the report
Apr 9, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view on durable beverage economics
Apr 9, 2026
Kept leverage treatment conservative
Impact: Avoids overstating distributable-cash support
Report timeline
Apr 9, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on defensive quality and a still-contained fair-value spread.