KO
The Coca-Cola Company
Consumer Staples / Beverages / Atlanta, GA
AnalystScope signal
Hold
Scheduled quote
$82
Base fair value
$82
Bear / base / bull
$70 / $82 / $88
Upside / downside
-0.7 downside
Confidence
Medium
Research updated Apr 9, 2026
Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.
Informational research only. Not personalized investment advice.
Investment summary
Current view and thesis
Coca-Cola remains a durable defensive compounder with strong brand economics, but the current valuation spread still looks closer to Hold than to a high-conviction rerating case.
Fair value $82 vs. current $82 (-0.7 downside). Current base fair value is $82 versus $82, implying -0.7 downside.
Key drivers
Global brand strength and distribution reach keep demand resilient across a wide set of consumer environments.
High margin durability and strong cash conversion reinforce the defensive valuation floor.
Steady pricing and mix discipline support fair value even without assuming unusually fast volume growth.
Key risks
FX, commodity, or bottler timing can still make reported figures look better or worse than the durable base.
The current premium multiple leaves less room for disappointment than a cheaper staples setup would.
If pricing power weakens while volume stays soft, the current margin confidence could erode.
What would change the view
A wider discount to the current fair-value range would make the defensive case more compelling.
Clearer evidence of sustained volume-led acceleration would improve the setup.
A weaker pricing/mix profile or materially softer cash conversion would reduce confidence in the current Hold view.
Valuation
Price, range, and method support
Base case $82 / -0.7 downside / medium confidence
Price vs fair value
-0.1%
Model-implied return
Scheduled quote
$82
Fair value
$82
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $82
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$83 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$81 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$79 | 20%
| Case / method | Value | Weight / support |
|---|---|---|
| DCF (Base) | $83 | 45% |
| NTM P/E Multiple | $81 | 35% |
| EV/EBITDA Cross-check | $79 | 20% |
| Bear case | $70 | Mixed |
| Base case | $82 | Mixed |
| Bull case | $88 | Mixed |
Fundamental analysis
Reported evidence and normalized model base
Normalized annual basis: FY2025
Normalized figures are AnalystScope's annual valuation model base.
| Normalized metric | Latest value | Growth / margin context |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.2B | +2.3% YoY |
| Operating income | $14.4B | 29.9% margin |
| Net income | $11.3B | EPS proxy $2.61 |
| Free cash flow | $12.0B | 24.9% margin |
| EBITDA | $15.9B | 33.0% margin |
| Net cash / (debt) | -$25.5B | -52.9% of revenue |
| Metric | Reported | AnalystScope normalized | Basis note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $47.9B | $48.2B | Model revenue smooths concentrate, bottler, and FX timing so the base stays focused on durable global beverage demand. |
| Operating Margin | 28.7% | 29.9% | Margin input avoids over-reading temporary mix or commodity relief and keeps the base on brand-led economics. |
| FCF (TTM) | $5.3B | $12.0B | FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and keeps the cash-conversion base conservative. |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($29.0B) | ($25.5B) | Balance-sheet treatment does not assume all balance-sheet cash is distributable and keeps leverage framing restrained. |
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+2.3% YoY
$48.2B
Op. margin
+0.8% pts
29.9%
FCF margin
+0.5% pts
24.9%
Revenue + margin trend
Annual normalized model-base history.
Revenue
Operating margin
AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025.
Income statement
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $45.8B | $47.1B | $48.2B |
| Gross Profit | $27.4B | $28.5B | $29.4B |
| Operating Income | $13.0B | $13.7B | $14.4B |
| EBITDA | $14.5B | $15.2B | $15.9B |
| Net Income | $10.1B | $10.8B | $11.3B |
Balance sheet
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Investments | $13.5B | $14.0B | $14.5B |
| Total Debt | $38.0B | $39.0B | $40.0B |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($24.5B) | ($25.0B) | ($25.5B) |
| Total Assets | $99.0B | $102.0B | $105.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $74.0B | $76.0B | $78.0B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $25.0B | $26.0B | $27.0B |
Cash flow
| Line item | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $12.8B | $13.4B | $13.9B |
| Depreciation & Amortization | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.5B |
| Capital Expenditures | ($1.9B) | ($1.9B) | ($1.9B) |
| Free Cash Flow | $10.9B | $11.5B | $12.0B |
Model assumptions
Base-case inputs and sensitivity
Published AnalystScope assumptions; private edits do not change this base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
4.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Global brand strength and distribution reach keep demand resilient across a wide set of consumer environments.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$2/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 4.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For The Coca-Cola Company, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
7.8%
+/- 0.5% => -$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage remains manageable against durable brand cash generation
Operating Margin (Year 5)
30.2%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (29.9%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input avoids over-reading temporary mix or commodity relief and keeps the base on brand-led economics.
Sensitivity drivers
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
4.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$2/sh
WACC
7.8%
+/- 0.5% => -$4/sh
Operating Margin (Year 5)
30.2%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$3/sh
Confidence
Medium
Method outputs are tightly grouped at +4.9% dispersion.
Why the model view could be wrong
FX, commodity, or bottler timing can still make reported figures look better or worse than the durable base.
The current premium multiple leaves less room for disappointment than a cheaper staples setup would.
If pricing power weakens while volume stays soft, the current margin confidence could erode.
Private analysis
Test your own assumptions in Scenario Builder
Private scenarios remain separate from AnalystScope's published base case.
Private workspace
Scenario Builder
Private scenario sandbox
This is a private modelling layer, not the public AnalystScope base case or printable snapshot. It keeps the public base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates your scenario fair-value estimate immediately.
Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for KO. Base-case rationale remains in the public assumptions section above. Your scenario output reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the AnalystScope framework.
Editable assumptions
Adjust your scenario inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the public AnalystScope base case.
This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.
Matches the published AnalystScope base case.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
Public AnalystScope base case: 4.0% | +/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh
Allowed range: 0.0% to 10.0%
Terminal Growth
Public AnalystScope base case: 2.5% | +/- 0.5% => +/-$2/sh
Allowed range: 1.0% to 4.0%
WACC
Public AnalystScope base case: 7.8% | +/- 0.5% => -$4/sh
Allowed range: 6.0% to 9.8%
Operating Margin (Year 5)
Public AnalystScope base case: 30.2% | +/- 100 bps => +/-$3/sh
Allowed range: 22.2% to 38.2%
Saved private scenarios
Save up to 5 named scenarios for KO. These are your scenarios: they never overwrite the public AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.
Checking private workspace session...
Private scenario note
Keep a short thesis, main risk, or why this case differs from the published base case.
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Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.
No private scenarios saved yet. Make a change to the published base case, then save a named scenario here.
Published base case
Fair value
$82
Upside / Downside
-0.7 downside
Model signal
Hold
Published base-case output
Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.
Fair value
$82
$0/sh vs published base case
Upside / Downside
-0.7 downside
+0.0 pts vs published base case
Model signal
Hold
Unchanged versus the published base case.
Method movement inside the scenario
This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.
Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.
Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.
| Method | Published base | Edited scenario | Delta | How it moved / main drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
DCF (Base) DCF-style | 45% weight | $83 | $83 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style | 35% weight | $81 | $81 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple | 20% weight | $79 | $79 | $0/sh | Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case. |
Weighted fair value Published framework result | Published framework result | $82 | $82 | -$1/sh | Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way. |
Published base case vs private scenarios
Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.
Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.
Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR (5Y) | Terminal Growth | WACC | Op. Margin (Y5) | Fair Value | Upside / Downside | Model Signal | Delta vs Base | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AnalystScope base case PublishedOfficial AnalystScope anchor row. | 4.0% | 2.5% | 7.8% | 30.2% | $82 | -0.7 downside | Hold | Published anchor |
Supporting research
Quality, normalization, and monitoring evidence
Annual model base: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth is steady and price/mix supported rather than unusually fast.
Profitability
StrongBrand power and concentrate economics support excellent margin durability.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is manageable, though not an outright balance-sheet advantage.
Valuation
ModerateThe market already recognizes much of the business quality in the multiple.
Execution / Resilience
StrongGlobal brand reach and category resilience support downside protection.
Current source status
Quote: Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.
Reported fundamentals: Fundamentals refreshed 21 Jul 2026, 00:39 UTC. Fresh through 21 Jul 2026, 12:39 UTC.
Latest filing: 8-K filed Jul 16, 2026 | Reporting period Jul 16, 2026. Filing refreshed Jul 21, 2026, 1:32 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 21, 2026, 1:32 PM UTC.
Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.
Basis: FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.
Operating and cash-flow trends
Revenue growth (1Y)
+2.3%
Gross margin
61.0%
Operating margin
29.9%
Operating margin change vs prior FY
+0.8 pts
EBITDA margin
33.0%
EBITDA margin change vs prior FY
+0.7 pts
Operating income growth (1Y)
+5.1%
Net margin
23.4%
FCF margin
24.9%
FCF margin change vs prior FY
+0.5 pts
FCF growth (1Y)
+4.3%
Balance sheet quality
Cash & investments
$14.5B
Total debt
$40.0B
Net cash / (debt)
Net debt $25.5B
Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue
Net debt 52.9% of revenue
Liabilities / assets
vs FY2024 (-0.2 pts)
74.3%
Cross-statement quality
Gross-to-operating spread
31.1 pts
Operating cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.2x
Operating cash flow / EBITDA
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.9x
Free cash flow / net income
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
1.1x
CapEx as % of revenue
vs FY2024 (-0.1 pts)
3.9%
CapEx as % of operating cash flow
vs FY2024 (-0.5 pts)
13.7%
CapEx / D&A
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
1.3x
Cash & investments / total debt
vs FY2024 (+0.0x)
0.4x
Shareholders' equity as % of revenue
56.0%
Asset turnover
vs FY2024 (-0.0x)
0.5x
Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.
Adjustment focus
Large analyst adjustmentCash flow | FCF (TTM) | +$6.7B / +126%
Revenue momentum
Stable+2.3% latest 1Y growth
vs +2.8% prior 1Y
Operating margin trend
Stable29.9% latest margin
+79 bps vs prior FY
FCF margin trend
Stable24.9% latest FCF margin
+48 bps vs prior FY
Balance-sheet posture
StableNet debt 52.9% of revenue
vs Net debt 53.1% of revenue prior FY
How to read this
Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.
This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.
Why the model base differs
For Coca-Cola, the model base is intended to reflect durable global beverage economics rather than quarter-specific FX, bottler, or commodity noise.
Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.
| Metric | Model base | Live reported | Variance vs reported | Adjustment size | Why lower / higher? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF (TTM) | $12.0B FY2025 model base | $5.3B Live reported TTM | +$6.7B / +126% | Large analyst adjustment | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest cash-flow drag is fully durable. It adjusts for working-capital timing and keeps the cash-conversion base conservative. |
Net Cash / (Debt) | ($25.5B) FY2025 model base | ($29.0B) Live reported balance sheet | +$3.5B / +7% of revenue | Moderate adjustment | Model base is less conservative than the live reported balance-sheet figure because the latest reported balance does not appear fully representative. It does not assume all balance-sheet cash is distributable and keeps leverage framing restrained. |
Operating Margin | 29.9% FY2025 model base | 28.7% Live reported margin | +1.2 pts | Close to reported | Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest reported margin pressure is the durable earnings base. It avoids over-reading temporary mix or commodity relief and keeps the base on brand-led economics. |
Revenue (TTM) | $48.2B FY2025 model base | $47.9B Live reported TTM | +$300.0M / +1% | Close to reported | Model base is higher than live reported because the thesis does not assume the latest reported softness is the durable revenue run-rate. It smooths concentrate, bottler, and FX timing so the base stays focused on durable global beverage demand. |
Near-term catalysts
Price/mix versus volume commentary remains the clearest near-term driver of sentiment.
Commodity and FX framing still shape confidence in the margin base.
Cash-conversion quality matters more than a single reported revenue print in the current setup.
What we are watching
Whether pricing power remains durable without relying too heavily on volume softness.
How much FX and bottler timing are distorting the current reported picture versus the model base.
Any sign that the current cash-conversion strength is fading as cost pressure shifts.
| Date | Event | Published rating | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | New | Hold | Started coverage with a Hold view on defensive quality and a still-contained fair-value spread. |