Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Published Snapshot
Costco remains an elite defensive compounder, but the current multiple already embeds much of that quality, leaving the setup closer to Hold than to a wide-gap upside case.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Buy signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against the latest daily scheduled quote of $936 versus $1,040 fair value, implying +11.2 upside.
Price vs fair value
+11.1%
Model-implied return
Latest daily scheduled quote
$936
Fair value
$1040
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $1040
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$1,058 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$1,034 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$1,012 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+12.5% YoY
$286.3B
Op. margin
+0.3% pts
3.8%
FCF margin
-0.0% pts
3.4%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$1058
NTM P/E Multiple
$1034
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$1012
Current workspace signal
Buy
Confidence
Medium
Latest daily scheduled quote
$936
Fair value
$1,040
+11.2 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Latest daily scheduled quote
Daily scheduled refresh as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 22, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed Jul 14, 2026 | Reporting period Jul 10, 2026
Filing refreshed Jul 21, 2026, 12:39 AM UTC. Fresh through Jul 21, 2026, 12:39 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-08-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 21 Jul 2026, 00:39 UTC. Fresh through 21 Jul 2026, 12:39 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
StrongMembership growth and traffic resilience continue to support a healthy long-run base.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are thin, but highly durable when viewed through the membership model.
Balance sheet
StrongNet cash and low operating risk support flexibility.
Valuation
WeakThe current multiple already capitalizes a large share of Costco's quality premium.
Execution / Resilience
StrongTraffic consistency and member loyalty support resilience.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$1,120
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$1,040
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$920
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
7.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$14/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Membership fee economics and traffic resilience remain the core valuation anchors.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 7.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Costco Wholesale Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
7.9%
+/- 0.5% => -$16/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Membership model supports balance-sheet flexibility
Operating Margin (Year 5)
4.2%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$13/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (3.8%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input keeps the base on durable membership-led retail economics rather than temporary mix or shrink improvements.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-08-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 21 Jul 2026, 00:39 UTC. Fresh through 21 Jul 2026, 12:39 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For Costco, the model base is intended to reflect durable membership and scale economics rather than quarter-specific retail mix or inventory timing.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $275.2B | Live reported | $286.3B +12.5% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths member traffic and category mix swings instead of extrapolating a single period of unusually strong retail demand. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 3.8% | Live reported | 3.8% +31 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input keeps the base on durable membership-led retail economics rather than temporary mix or shrink improvements. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $7.8B | Live reported | $9.7B 3.4% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for inventory and vendor timing so the cash-conversion base stays conservative. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $13.3B | Live reported | $9.0B Membership model supports balance-sheet flexibility Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment reflects membership-model resilience without assuming excess cash is fully distributable. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $936 versus a base-case fair value of $1,040, implying +11.2 upside.
Fair value $1,040 vs. current $936 (+11.2 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $1,012 to $1,058.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 3.8%, with +31 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is $9.0B, with membership model supports balance-sheet flexibility.
Key drivers
Membership fee economics and traffic resilience remain the core valuation anchors.
Scale advantages help preserve margin quality even in a promotional retail environment.
A strong balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation reinforce downside support.
Key risks
The current valuation leaves little room for operational disappointment or slower fee/member growth.
Category mix pressure can make already-thin margins look weaker than the through-cycle base.
If traffic or renewal behavior softens, the quality premium could compress quickly.
What would change our view
A materially wider discount to fair value would make the quality case more attractive.
Stronger evidence of sustained membership monetization could improve the valuation support.
If traffic resilience weakens while the multiple stays elevated, the setup would deteriorate.
Near-term catalysts
Membership fee commentary and renewal trends remain the clearest valuation drivers.
Comparable sales and mix updates matter more than headline retail noise in this setup.
Inventory and vendor timing still shape the free-cash-flow read-through from any strong quarter.
What we are watching
Whether membership renewals and new member additions stay strong enough to justify the premium multiple.
How much recent cash conversion is structural versus timing-related.
Any sign that category mix or a softer consumer backdrop is pressuring the through-cycle base.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 9, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 9, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 9, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 9, 2026
Analyst note
Watching membership renewal strength, category mix, and whether the premium multiple is getting ahead of the durable earnings base.
What changed in the report
Apr 9, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view on premium-quality retail economics
Apr 9, 2026
Kept multiple assumptions disciplined
Impact: Avoids overstating upside from an already expensive base
Report timeline
Apr 9, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on elite retail quality but a still-demanding valuation.