Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)
Texas Instruments remains a high-quality analog franchise, but the current setup still reads more like a Hold than a wide-gap opportunity given where the cycle and multiple already sit.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Hold signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $215 versus $215 fair value, implying +0.2 upside.
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$215
Fair value
$215
+0.2 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Apr 10, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC. Fresh through Apr 11, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Filing reference
8-K filed Jun 2, 2026 | Reporting period May 27, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateCycle recovery helps, but the long-run story is steadier than high-growth.
Profitability
StrongAnalog economics still support very strong margins and returns through the cycle.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is manageable, though the current capex cycle reduces balance-sheet flexibility.
Valuation
ModerateThe quality premium is understandable, but the current spread is still not especially wide.
Execution / Resilience
StrongProduct breadth and embedded demand support resilience once the cycle normalizes.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$236
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are supportive of the upside case.
Base case
$215
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$182
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
6.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: A gradually improving demand cycle can still help fair value, even without assuming an aggressive rebound.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 6.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Texas Instruments Incorporated, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.8%
+/- 0.5% => -$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage remains manageable through the current capex cycle
Operating Margin (Year 5)
38.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (37.3%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input keeps the long-run analog franchise economics separate from short-term factory-load distortion.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For Texas Instruments, the model base reflects durable analog economics through the cycle rather than a straight-line read of any one semiconductor trough or rebound year.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $17.7B | Live reported | $17.7B +9.9% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths analog-cycle troughs and avoids extrapolating a single inventory reset too far into the base case. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 34.1% | Live reported | 37.3% +126 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input keeps the long-run analog franchise economics separate from short-term factory-load distortion. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $2.6B | Live reported | $5.4B 30.5% margin Adjustment: FCF input stays conservative on capex intensity and does not assume the current investment cycle immediately normalizes. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($10.5B) | Live reported | ($5.2B) Leverage remains manageable through the current capex cycle Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment preserves a cautious view of leverage while large capital-spend programs remain active. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $215 versus a base-case fair value of $215, implying +0.2 upside.
Fair value $215 vs. current $215 (+0.2 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $207 to $220.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 37.3%, with +126 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($5.2B), with leverage remains manageable through the current capex cycle.
Key drivers
Analog franchise durability and embedded-customer exposure support a healthier through-cycle base than many semis.
High gross margin and strong returns on incremental revenue keep the valuation floor sturdier than a commodity-like chip story.
A gradually improving demand cycle can still help fair value, even without assuming an aggressive rebound.
Key risks
Industrial and automotive demand could stay softer for longer than the current through-cycle base assumes.
Heavy capex could keep free-cash-flow conversion below prior-cycle norms for longer.
The current premium multiple leaves less room for disappointment if the recovery is slow.
What would change our view
A cleaner volume recovery without margin slippage would improve the setup.
If capex stays elevated while demand remains sluggish, confidence in the current base case would weaken.
A wider discount to the current fair-value range would make the analog-quality story more compelling.
Near-term catalysts
Industrial and auto order commentary remain the most important near-term signals.
Factory-load and capex framing will matter as much as the next revenue print in this setup.
Inventory normalization across key end markets can shift sentiment even before revenue fully recovers.
What we are watching
Whether end-market demand is broadening or still concentrated in a few improving pockets.
How durable margins remain if utilization stays below prior-cycle levels.
Whether the current capital-spend program is reinforcing or constraining long-run fair-value support.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 9, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 9, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 9, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 9, 2026
Analyst note
Watching industrial recovery breadth, capex intensity, and whether analog margins stay durable through the current cycle.
What changed in the report
Apr 9, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view on analog quality through the cycle
Apr 9, 2026
Kept capex assumptions conservative
Impact: Avoids overstating free-cash-flow recovery
Report timeline
Apr 9, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on franchise quality versus a still-moderate spread to fair value.