Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Cisco remains a quality cash compounder with a healthier software and services mix, but the valuation setup still looks more like a disciplined Hold than a wide-gap rerating case.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Sell signal with high confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $114 versus $87 fair value, implying -23.6 downside.
Current workspace signal
Sell
Confidence
High
Stale scheduled quote
$114
Fair value
$87
-23.6 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:55 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:55 AM UTC.
Filing reference
144 filed Jun 4, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-07-26.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth is steadier than fast, with software mix doing more work than hardware volume.
Profitability
StrongMargins and free-cash-flow conversion remain solid for the category.
Balance sheet
StrongNet cash gives Cisco more flexibility than many hardware peers.
Valuation
ModerateThe multiple is reasonable, but the fair-value spread is still fairly contained.
Execution / Resilience
StrongInstalled base and enterprise relationships support resilience.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$96
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$87
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$73
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support remain supportive in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
4.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: A larger software and services mix helps stabilize the revenue base relative to prior hardware-heavy cycles.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 4.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Cisco Systems, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.3%
+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Cash-rich networking balance sheet
Operating Margin (Year 5)
28.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (27.5%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input avoids over-reading short-term product mix swings and restructuring timing.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-07-26.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For Cisco, the model base aims to capture durable infrastructure and software economics rather than quarter-specific hardware digestion noise.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $56.7B | Live reported | $55.6B +3.3% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths hardware digestion periods and keeps the base on steadier enterprise networking demand. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 20.8% | Live reported | 27.5% +38 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input avoids over-reading short-term product mix swings and restructuring timing. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $13.3B | Live reported | $15.1B 27.2% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing while preserving Cisco's durable conversion advantage. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($15.8B) | Live reported | $13.5B Cash-rich networking balance sheet Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment reflects excess liquidity conservatively without assuming all cash is immediately distributable. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $114 versus a base-case fair value of $87, implying -23.6 downside.
Fair value $87 vs. current $114 (-23.6 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $84 to $90.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 27.5%, with +38 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is $13.5B, with cash-rich networking balance sheet.
Key drivers
A larger software and services mix helps stabilize the revenue base relative to prior hardware-heavy cycles.
High cash conversion and a strong balance sheet support downside resilience.
AI infrastructure and security attach can still provide selective incremental upside without changing the model philosophy.
Key risks
Enterprise spending hesitation could keep hardware demand softer for longer than the base case assumes.
Competitive pricing in networking and security could limit the margin benefit from a better mix.
If the software transition stalls, the current premium to slower-growth hardware peers could compress.
What would change our view
Broader evidence of sustained software and security acceleration would improve the setup.
A weaker enterprise hardware environment would make the current Hold harder to defend.
A wider discount to the current fair-value range would make the cash-yield story more attractive.
Near-term catalysts
Order trends and backlog normalization remain the cleanest near-term read-throughs.
Security and subscription commentary matter more than hardware units alone in the current setup.
Capital allocation updates can reinforce the downside floor if execution stays steady.
What we are watching
Whether software and services are doing enough to offset slower hardware replacement demand.
How resilient Cisco's margin base remains if enterprise budgets stay tighter.
Any sign that the current cash-rich balance sheet is becoming more aggressively deployed.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 9, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 9, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 9, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 9, 2026
Analyst note
Watching software mix, enterprise hardware digestion, and whether AI/security demand can lift the current fair-value range.
What changed in the report
Apr 9, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view on steady infrastructure quality
Apr 9, 2026
Kept hardware-cycle assumptions conservative
Impact: Avoids overstating upside from a single replacement wave
Report timeline
Apr 9, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on solid cash generation and a narrower valuation spread.