Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
Adobe still looks like a high-quality software compounder with strong cash generation, and the current setup now screens as a more credible Buy after the multiple reset.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Hold signal with high confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $253 versus $270 fair value, implying +6.6 upside.
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
High
Stale scheduled quote
$253
Fair value
$270
+6.6 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed May 1, 2026 | Reporting period Apr 30, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-11-28.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
StrongCreative Cloud and document workflow still support a healthy medium-term growth base.
Profitability
StrongHigh gross margin and strong conversion keep the operating model resilient.
Balance sheet
StrongNet cash and recurring software economics support flexibility.
Valuation
StrongThe multiple has reset enough to make the spread more attractive than it was a year ago.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateAI product execution still matters, but Adobe retains strong workflow entrenchment.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$304
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$270
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$221
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support remain supportive in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
9.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$12/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Recurring subscription revenue and strong renewal behavior still anchor the growth and cash-generation base.
Terminal Growth
2.8%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.8%, it sits well below the 9.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Adobe Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.8%
+/- 0.5% => -$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash supports product and platform investment
Operating Margin (Year 5)
36.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (35.3%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input reduces temporary product-launch and go-to-market timing distortion while preserving Adobe's structural software economics.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-11-28.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For Adobe, the model base is meant to reflect durable subscription and workflow economics rather than short-term seat timing or quarter-specific demand noise.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $23.8B | Live reported | $23.8B +10.7% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths enterprise seat timing and keeps the base on durable document and creative demand rather than one quarter of bookings noise. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 36.6% | Live reported | 35.3% +41 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input reduces temporary product-launch and go-to-market timing distortion while preserving Adobe's structural software economics. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $9.9B | Live reported | $9.1B 38.2% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and avoids over-reading unusually favorable billings conversion. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $3.6B | Live reported | $4.8B Net cash supports product and platform investment Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment retains a conservative net-cash view without assuming all liquidity is immediately distributable. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Buy rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $253 versus a base-case fair value of $270, implying +6.6 upside.
Fair value $270 vs. current $253 (+6.6 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $262 to $277.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 35.3%, with +41 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is $4.8B, with net cash supports product and platform investment.
Key drivers
Recurring subscription revenue and strong renewal behavior still anchor the growth and cash-generation base.
Document Cloud and enterprise workflow adoption broaden the valuation support beyond creative-seat expansion alone.
A lower entry multiple now gives more room for solid execution to show up in fair-value support.
Key risks
Faster competitive pressure from AI-native creation tools could narrow pricing or seat growth durability.
Enterprise seat expansion could remain choppy if budget scrutiny slows workflow upgrades.
If AI monetization disappoints, the market may resist giving Adobe a stronger re-rating.
What would change our view
Clearer evidence that AI products are sustaining higher net expansion would strengthen conviction.
A more persistent slowdown in enterprise seat growth would reduce confidence in the current base case.
If margin durability breaks while the multiple rerates higher, the Buy view would need revisiting.
Near-term catalysts
Booking and remaining performance obligation commentary remain the cleanest near-term signals.
AI product monetization and attach-rate disclosures could materially influence the growth narrative.
Any cleaner evidence of enterprise workflow adoption would improve confidence in the current fair-value range.
What we are watching
Whether Adobe can translate AI product enthusiasm into durable paid workflow expansion.
How stable enterprise demand remains across both creative and document workflow budgets.
Any sign that the current cash-conversion quality is softening as the company invests for the next cycle.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 9, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 9, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 9, 2026
Current published rating
Buy
Published Apr 9, 2026
Analyst note
Watching AI monetization, enterprise seat expansion, and whether cash-conversion quality stays as durable as the current base suggests.
What changed in the report
Apr 9, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Buy view after a cleaner multiple reset
Apr 9, 2026
Kept valuation anchored to conservative software multiples
Impact: Avoids assuming a full return to prior peak sentiment
Report timeline
Apr 9, 2026
Started coverage with a Buy view on durable software economics and a more attractive post-reset valuation.