Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Johnson & Johnson brings diversified healthcare resilience and solid cash generation, but the current valuation spread still looks more like a steady Hold than a strong rerating case.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Sell signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $229 versus $167 fair value, implying -27.3 downside.
Current workspace signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$229
Fair value
$167
-27.3 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:56 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:56 AM UTC.
Filing reference
SD filed May 27, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-28.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth is steadier than spectacular, with diversification doing more than a single blockbuster narrative.
Profitability
StrongMargins and cash conversion remain sturdy across a broad healthcare base.
Balance sheet
StrongThe balance sheet remains flexible even after conservative liability treatment.
Valuation
ModerateThe current multiple is not stretched, but neither is the fair-value spread unusually wide.
Execution / Resilience
StrongDiversification across pharma and medtech supports resilience.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$182
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$167
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$142
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
4.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Diversified healthcare exposure keeps the earnings base steadier than single-product or narrower peers.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 4.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Johnson & Johnson, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.0%
+/- 0.5% => -$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Balance sheet remains flexible despite modest net debt
Operating Margin (Year 5)
28.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (27.5%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input keeps the durable pharma-plus-medtech base separate from temporary mix or launch-cost noise.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-28.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For JNJ, the model base is meant to reflect durable diversified healthcare economics rather than temporary product-cycle or portfolio-shift noise.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $94.2B | Live reported | $91.4B +3.7% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths portfolio churn and avoids over-reading one product cycle or divestiture period. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | Unavailable | Unavailable | 27.5% +67 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input keeps the durable pharma-plus-medtech base separate from temporary mix or launch-cost noise. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $19.7B | Live reported | $19.9B 21.8% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and keeps litigation and restructuring assumptions conservative. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($17.8B) | Live reported | ($2.0B) Balance sheet remains flexible despite modest net debt Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment does not assume all cash is fully distributable and keeps liabilities conservative. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $229 versus a base-case fair value of $167, implying -27.3 downside.
Fair value $167 vs. current $229 (-27.3 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods remain directionally aligned, with a moderate range from $158 to $172.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 27.5%, with +67 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($2.0B), with balance sheet remains flexible despite modest net debt.
Key drivers
Diversified healthcare exposure keeps the earnings base steadier than single-product or narrower peers.
Solid free-cash-flow generation supports both capital return and downside protection.
A balanced pharma and medtech mix helps keep margin durability credible.
Key risks
Pipeline or product-cycle disappointment could soften the current long-run revenue base.
Litigation or liability treatment can still alter the market's confidence in distributable cash.
The current setup is steady, but not insulated from slower healthcare spending or portfolio friction.
What would change our view
Clearer pipeline support or stronger medtech acceleration would improve the setup.
A weaker litigation outlook or softer portfolio execution would reduce confidence in the base case.
A wider discount to the current fair-value range would make the defensive case more attractive.
Near-term catalysts
Pipeline and portfolio commentary remain the nearest catalysts for estimate changes.
Cash-conversion quality and liability framing matter for the downside case.
Margin durability across the mixed portfolio still shapes confidence in the base case.
What we are watching
Whether the pharma and medtech mix keeps supporting a durable margin profile.
How conservatively the market is treating litigation and liability risk versus the model base.
Any sign that diversified healthcare resilience is being under- or over-valued in the current price.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 8, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 8, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 8, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 8, 2026
Analyst note
Watching portfolio mix, liability treatment, and whether diversified healthcare resilience earns a wider valuation gap.
What changed in the report
Apr 8, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view on diversified healthcare resilience
Apr 8, 2026
Used conservative balance-sheet treatment
Impact: Keeps distributable-cash assumptions restrained
Report timeline
Apr 8, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on healthcare resilience and a moderate fair-value spread.