The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)
P&G still screens as a high-quality defensive compounder, but the current setup is better described as a steady Hold than a wide-gap valuation opportunity.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Buy signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $147 versus $176 fair value, implying +19.9 upside.
Current workspace signal
Buy
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$147
Fair value
$176
+19.9 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Apr 10, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC. Fresh through Apr 11, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Filing reference
11-K filed Jun 4, 2026 | Reporting period Dec 31, 2025
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-06-30.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth is steady and price/mix led rather than unusually fast.
Profitability
StrongBrand strength and scale support durable margin quality.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is manageable, though not an outright balance-sheet advantage.
Valuation
ModerateThe current multiple already reflects much of the defensive quality.
Execution / Resilience
StrongGlobal brand strength and category breadth support resilience.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$190
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$176
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$154
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
4.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Price/mix discipline remains the main lever for protecting returns in a slower growth profile.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 4.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For The Procter & Gamble Company, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
7.9%
+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage stays manageable but not cash-rich
Operating Margin (Year 5)
24.8%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (24.1%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input reduces quarter-specific commodity and pricing noise to keep the base on durable brand economics.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-06-30.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For P&G, the model base is intended to reflect durable branded-consumer economics rather than temporary commodity, pricing, or working-capital swings.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $84.3B | Live reported | $86.7B +3.2% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths consumer inventory swings and the temporary pacing of category recoveries. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 24.3% | Live reported | 24.1% +89 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input reduces quarter-specific commodity and pricing noise to keep the base on durable brand economics. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $14.0B | Live reported | $16.7B 19.3% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and unusually favorable cash conversion windows. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($16.9B) | Live reported | ($18.0B) Leverage stays manageable but not cash-rich Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment stays conservative and does not assume all balance-sheet cash is fully distributable. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $147 versus a base-case fair value of $176, implying +19.9 upside.
Fair value $176 vs. current $147 (+19.9 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $168 to $180.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 24.1%, with +89 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($18.0B), with leverage stays manageable but not cash-rich.
Key drivers
Brand strength and distribution scale support steady revenue and margin durability.
Price/mix discipline remains the main lever for protecting returns in a slower growth profile.
Strong free-cash-flow conversion supports capital return and downside stability.
Key risks
Input-cost or FX swings can compress the margin profile faster than the base case assumes.
The current multiple gives less room for execution disappointment than a cheaper staples setup would.
Volume softness would matter more if pricing power fades across core categories.
What would change our view
A wider valuation spread or stronger volume-led acceleration would improve the setup.
A sustained commodity squeeze or weaker mix would reduce confidence in the margin base.
More visible reinvestment payback from innovation could justify a higher long-run base.
Near-term catalysts
Volume versus price/mix commentary remains the most important near-term read-through.
Commodity and freight commentary still shapes the market's margin confidence.
Free-cash-flow conversion quality matters more than headline sales noise in this setup.
What we are watching
Whether volume can improve without sacrificing pricing discipline.
How much commodity pressure remains embedded in the next year's margin outlook.
Any sign that the current cash-conversion strength is being flattered by short-term working-capital timing.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 8, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 8, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 8, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 8, 2026
Analyst note
Watching volume recovery, commodity pressure, and how much of recent cash conversion is truly durable.
What changed in the report
Apr 8, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view on durable staples quality
Apr 8, 2026
Kept margin normalization conservative
Impact: Avoids overstating recent pricing-driven strength
Report timeline
Apr 8, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on defensive quality and a narrower valuation spread.