Walmart Inc. (WMT)
Walmart offers defensiveness, scale, and improving mix quality, but the current setup still looks more like a disciplined Hold than a high-upside valuation case.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Sell signal with low confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $129 versus $90 fair value, implying -30.5 downside.
Current workspace signal
Sell
Confidence
Low
Stale scheduled quote
$129
Fair value
$90
-30.5 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Apr 10, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC. Fresh through Apr 11, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Filing reference
8-K filed Jun 5, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 4, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-01-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth is steady rather than explosive, with e-commerce and mix helping the base.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are thin but durable, and incremental mix improvement still matters.
Balance sheet
ModerateLeverage is manageable against scale, though not a net-cash story.
Valuation
ModerateA higher-quality retail multiple limits the near-term spread.
Execution / Resilience
StrongScale and category breadth support resilience across a tougher consumer backdrop.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$100
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$90
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile constrain the base case.
Bear case
$74
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
4.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2026.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Defensive demand makes the earnings base sturdier than many retailers.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 4.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Walmart Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.0%
+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Debt remains manageable relative to scale and resilience
Operating Margin (Year 5)
5.2%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (4.8%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input avoids over-reading temporary mix benefits and keeps the base on durable retail economics.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-01-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For Walmart, the model base is meant to reflect durable omnichannel retail economics rather than quarter-to-quarter inventory or mix noise.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $706.4B | Live reported | $709.5B +4.2% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths category mix and one-off inventory timing rather than assuming a straight-line retail cycle. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 4.2% | Live reported | 4.8% +31 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input avoids over-reading temporary mix benefits and keeps the base on durable retail economics. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $14.9B | Live reported | $22.0B 3.1% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and inventory swings that can distort annual cash conversion. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($30.1B) | Live reported | ($30.5B) Debt remains manageable relative to scale and resilience Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps leverage conservative even with resilient staple demand. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $129 versus a base-case fair value of $90, implying -30.5 downside.
Fair value $90 vs. current $129 (-30.5 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods remain directionally aligned, with a moderate range from $84 to $93.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 4.8%, with +31 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($30.5B), with debt remains manageable relative to scale and resilience.
Key drivers
Traffic resilience and omnichannel mix continue to support revenue durability.
Scale benefits and a healthier category mix help operating margin inch higher.
Defensive demand makes the earnings base sturdier than many retailers.
Key risks
Thin retail margins leave little room for execution misses or wage pressure.
Consumer trade-down can help traffic but still pressure the mix and gross margin.
A more promotional environment could offset current margin-improvement expectations.
What would change our view
Sustained margin expansion through mix and fulfillment discipline would improve the setup.
A heavier promotional turn or wage/cost pressure would lower fair-value support.
If the multiple expands further without a cleaner margin step-up, the upside case weakens.
Near-term catalysts
Gross-margin and e-commerce contribution commentary remain the nearest catalysts.
Inventory and working-capital discipline still shape the free-cash-flow read-through.
Consumer mix signals can move sentiment quickly even if headline traffic stays healthy.
What we are watching
Whether e-commerce and advertising contribution can keep lifting the margin base.
How resilient traffic remains if the consumer backdrop softens further.
Any sign that promotional intensity is forcing the model back toward a lower margin base.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 8, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 8, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 8, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 8, 2026
Analyst note
Watching margin mix, working-capital discipline, and whether omnichannel economics keep improving.
What changed in the report
Apr 8, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view on steady quality with moderate upside
Apr 8, 2026
Kept FCF treatment conservative
Impact: Avoids overstating cash conversion from inventory timing
Report timeline
Apr 8, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on defensive quality versus a more modest fair-value spread.