PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)
PepsiCo remains a defensive cash compounder with broad category strength, but the current setup still reads as Hold rather than a wide-gap upside opportunity.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Buy signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $149 versus $166 fair value, implying +11.1 upside.
Current workspace signal
Buy
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$149
Fair value
$166
+11.1 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed Jun 3, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 1, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-27.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth is steady and category-driven, not unusually fast.
Profitability
ModerateMargins are durable, though not immune to commodity and mix pressure.
Balance sheet
WeakLeverage is manageable but still more restrictive than a net-cash staple peer.
Valuation
ModerateThe quality premium is deserved, but the valuation spread is still contained.
Execution / Resilience
StrongCategory breadth and brand strength support resilience.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$179
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$166
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile constrain the base case.
Bear case
$142
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
4.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Snacks plus beverages provide a broader and steadier demand base than a single-category staple story.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 4.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For PepsiCo, Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
7.9%
+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage remains manageable but still constrains balance-sheet flexibility
Operating Margin (Year 5)
14.8%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (14.2%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input keeps the base on durable branded-snacks and beverage economics rather than temporary commodity or mix relief.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-27.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For PepsiCo, the model base is designed to reflect durable branded-consumer economics rather than short-term FX, pricing, or category timing noise.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $93.9B | Live reported | $94.5B +2.7% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths geographic mix and pricing-volume timing instead of overreacting to a single quarter of consumer softness or FX noise. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 12.2% | Live reported | 14.2% +5 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input keeps the base on durable branded-snacks and beverage economics rather than temporary commodity or mix relief. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $7.7B | Live reported | $8.8B 9.3% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and keeps the cash-conversion base conservative. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($33.4B) | Live reported | ($35.3B) Leverage remains manageable but still constrains balance-sheet flexibility Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment does not assume all cash is distributable and keeps leverage framing appropriately restrained. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $149 versus a base-case fair value of $166, implying +11.1 upside.
Fair value $166 vs. current $149 (+11.1 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $160 to $170.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 14.2%, with +5 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($35.3B), with leverage remains manageable but still constrains balance-sheet flexibility.
Key drivers
Snacks plus beverages provide a broader and steadier demand base than a single-category staple story.
Brand strength and distribution scale support a durable margin and cash-conversion profile.
The current valuation still benefits from defensive appeal even without assuming unusually fast growth.
Key risks
Consumer pushback on pricing or softer volume could pressure the base more than the current assumptions allow.
Commodity and FX swings can distort reported margins and sentiment around the durable base.
Leverage leaves less room for disappointment than a stronger balance-sheet staple would.
What would change our view
A wider discount to fair value would make the defensive case more compelling.
Clearer volume-led improvement without margin erosion would support a more constructive view.
If pricing weakens while leverage remains elevated, confidence in the Hold case would fall.
Near-term catalysts
Pricing versus volume commentary remains the key near-term driver of sentiment.
Commodity and FX framing still shape confidence in the margin base.
Cash-conversion quality matters more than a single quarter of reported sales noise.
What we are watching
Whether the snacks and beverages mix stays supportive enough to offset any softer volume patches.
How durable current cash conversion is once working-capital timing normalizes.
Whether leverage remains comfortable if consumer conditions weaken further.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 10, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 10, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 10, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 10, 2026
Analyst note
Watching pricing versus volume, cash-conversion durability, and whether leverage is staying comfortably inside the current base case.
What changed in the report
Apr 10, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view on defensive branded-consumer quality
Apr 10, 2026
Kept balance-sheet treatment conservative
Impact: Avoids overstating distributable-cash support
Report timeline
Apr 10, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on durable category breadth and a still-contained spread to fair value.