QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)
Qualcomm now looks like a reasonable Buy candidate on current valuation, provided the model stays conservative on cycle timing and does not overstate any single handset recovery.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Sell signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $203 versus $142 fair value, implying -30.0 downside.
Current workspace signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$203
Fair value
$142
-30.0 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC.
Filing reference
144 filed May 21, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-28.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth is improving, but still tied to cyclical end-market recovery rather than a straight-line secular story.
Profitability
StrongLicensing and high-margin wireless IP support stronger economics than many semis.
Balance sheet
ModerateNear-net-neutral positioning is supportive, though not an outright balance-sheet advantage.
Valuation
StrongThe current multiple still looks restrained relative to cash generation and cycle-normalized economics.
Execution / Resilience
ModerateThe business is durable, but still exposed to handset and customer mix cycles.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$158
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$142
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$114
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
7.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Licensing plus chipset exposure gives Qualcomm a stronger economics profile than a pure commodity-semiconductor read would suggest.
Terminal Growth
2.7%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.7%, it sits well below the 7.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For QUALCOMM Incorporated, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
9.0%
+/- 0.5% => -$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Balance sheet is close to net-neutral after conservative debt treatment
Operating Margin (Year 5)
29.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (28.7%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input keeps licensing and chipset economics on a through-cycle footing rather than a peak or trough demand quarter.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-09-28.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For Qualcomm, the model base is intended to capture durable wireless IP and chipset economics through the cycle rather than quarter-specific handset or inventory noise.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $44.3B | Live reported | $42.8B +10.0% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths handset-cycle volatility and avoids treating one product cycle or customer inventory swing as the durable base. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 27.9% | Live reported | 28.7% +123 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input keeps licensing and chipset economics on a through-cycle footing rather than a peak or trough demand quarter. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $12.8B | Live reported | $11.8B 27.6% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and keeps the cash-conversion base conservative through the current cycle. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($9.4B) | Live reported | ($400.0M) Balance sheet is close to net-neutral after conservative debt treatment Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment stays cautious even though the company remains close to net-neutral. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Buy rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $203 versus a base-case fair value of $142, implying -30.0 downside.
Fair value $142 vs. current $203 (-30.0 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $136 to $146.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 28.7%, with +123 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($400.0M), with balance sheet is close to net-neutral after conservative debt treatment.
Key drivers
Licensing plus chipset exposure gives Qualcomm a stronger economics profile than a pure commodity-semiconductor read would suggest.
Cash generation remains robust even when the handset cycle is uneven.
The current valuation still leaves room for a steadier through-cycle recovery without requiring heroic assumptions.
Key risks
Handset demand or customer concentration could still make results more volatile than the base case assumes.
Licensing and regulatory pressure remain structural risks to the higher-margin portion of the model.
If the cycle recovery disappoints, the Buy case would weaken more quickly than for a steadier infrastructure software name.
What would change our view
Broader end-market recovery beyond a narrow handset rebound would improve conviction.
A weaker cycle or more material licensing pressure would quickly reduce fair-value support.
If the multiple rerates sharply before the recovery broadens, the current Buy case would need tightening.
Near-term catalysts
Handset demand, Android mix, and licensing commentary remain the key near-term drivers.
Customer concentration and inventory signals still matter more than a single top-line print.
Any broader device or edge-AI adoption could improve sentiment around the long-run base.
What we are watching
Whether recovery is broadening beyond a narrow handset snapback.
How resilient licensing economics remain as customer and regulatory dynamics evolve.
Whether current cash conversion holds up if the demand cycle stays uneven.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 10, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 10, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 10, 2026
Current published rating
Buy
Published Apr 10, 2026
Analyst note
Watching handset-cycle breadth, licensing durability, and whether cash generation stays supportive through an uneven recovery.
What changed in the report
Apr 10, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Buy view on cycle-normalized valuation support
Apr 10, 2026
Kept licensing and cycle assumptions conservative
Impact: Avoids overstating upside from a single recovery leg
Report timeline
Apr 10, 2026
Started coverage with a Buy view on a still-reasonable valuation versus durable wireless economics.