Intuit Inc. (INTU)
Intuit still looks like a high-quality software compounder, but the current setup is better framed as Hold than as a wide-gap valuation opportunity.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Buy signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $384 versus $473 fair value, implying +23.3 upside.
Current workspace signal
Buy
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$384
Fair value
$473
+23.3 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:53 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:53 AM UTC.
Filing reference
SD filed May 28, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-07-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
StrongCore workflow products still support a healthy recurring-growth base.
Profitability
StrongMargins and cash conversion remain very strong for the category.
Balance sheet
ModerateNear-net-neutral positioning is fine, though not an outright balance-sheet edge.
Valuation
ModerateThe current multiple is not cheap enough to call the setup a wide-gap Buy.
Execution / Resilience
StrongWorkflow entrenchment and seasonality familiarity support resilience.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$521
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$473
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$400
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support remain supportive in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
10.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: High operating leverage and cash conversion keep the model base durable even when growth moderates.
Terminal Growth
3.0%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 3.0%, it sits well below the 10.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Intuit Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.7%
+/- 0.5% => -$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Balance sheet remains close to net-neutral after conservative treatment
Operating Margin (Year 5)
29.0%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$7/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (28.4%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input keeps the base on durable software economics rather than quarter-specific marketing or seasonal cost timing.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-07-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For Intuit, the model base is intended to capture durable software and financial-workflow economics rather than seasonal tax timing or one-off mix distortion.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $18.8B | Live reported | $20.1B +6.9% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths tax-season timing and avoids overreacting to any one period of assisted-filing or Credit Karma mix noise. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 26.1% | Live reported | 28.4% +123 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input keeps the base on durable software economics rather than quarter-specific marketing or seasonal cost timing. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $6.1B | Live reported | $6.0B 29.9% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and keeps the conversion base conservative despite very strong software cash generation. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($1.5B) | Live reported | ($200.0M) Balance sheet remains close to net-neutral after conservative treatment Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment remains cautious even though Intuit is operating near a net-neutral position. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $384 versus a base-case fair value of $473, implying +23.3 upside.
Fair value $473 vs. current $384 (+23.3 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $460 to $482.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 28.4%, with +123 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($200.0M), with balance sheet remains close to net-neutral after conservative treatment.
Key drivers
Recurring workflow revenue and strong customer retention still anchor the long-run valuation case.
High operating leverage and cash conversion keep the model base durable even when growth moderates.
The current valuation is more reasonable than prior peaks, but still not wide enough to overstate upside.
Key risks
Consumer or small-business pressure could soften growth more than the current base case assumes.
AI product investment or go-to-market changes could narrow near-term margin expansion.
Tax-season timing can still distort reported optics and market sentiment.
What would change our view
A wider discount to fair value would make the software-compounder case more attractive.
More visible durable growth outside the tax-season core would strengthen conviction.
If margin leverage weakens while the multiple stays elevated, the Hold stance would be harder to defend.
Near-term catalysts
Tax-season retention, product attach, and small-business demand remain the key near-term signals.
AI workflow monetization could matter if it starts supporting more durable net expansion.
Any clearer margin leverage through the seasonality profile would improve the valuation read-through.
What we are watching
Whether growth is broadening across the workflow suite rather than leaning too heavily on seasonal dynamics.
How much current cash conversion is structural versus timing-related.
Whether AI product investment is adding to durable value or simply raising the cost base.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 10, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 10, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 10, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 10, 2026
Analyst note
Watching workflow expansion, AI monetization, and whether seasonality is obscuring or overstating the durable growth base.
What changed in the report
Apr 10, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view on durable software quality
Apr 10, 2026
Kept valuation assumptions disciplined
Impact: Avoids overstating upside from a premium multiple base
Report timeline
Apr 10, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on durable workflow economics and a still-contained spread to fair value.