McDonald's Corporation (MCD)
McDonald's remains a high-quality global franchise, but the current setup still looks more like a disciplined Hold than a wide-gap valuation opportunity.
This page preserves the published note at the report date shown below. For the live workspace with the latest daily scheduled quote, filing, fundamentals, and refreshed model output, return to the company page.
Current workspace reference
Kept here as reference beside the published report: the current workspace now shows a Buy signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $280 versus $330 fair value, implying +17.6 upside.
Current workspace signal
Buy
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$280
Fair value
$330
+17.6 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of May 21, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC. Fresh through May 22, 2026, 6:54 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed Jun 1, 2026 | Reporting period May 28, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 6, 2026, 6:27 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateGrowth is steady and franchise-driven rather than unusually fast.
Profitability
StrongAsset-light franchise economics support very strong margin durability.
Balance sheet
WeakLeverage is serviceable but still limits balance-sheet flexibility.
Valuation
ModerateThe quality premium is deserved, but the current fair-value spread remains contained.
Execution / Resilience
StrongGlobal brand strength and scale support resilience through softer consumer patches.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$347
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$330
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$296
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
4.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Franchise mix and brand strength keep margin durability well above most restaurant peers.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 4.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For McDonald's Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.0%
+/- 0.5% => -$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Franchise cash generation supports leverage, but balance-sheet treatment stays conservative
Operating Margin (Year 5)
45.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$4/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (45.7%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input keeps the base on durable franchise economics instead of over-reading temporary commodity or mix relief.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 6 Jun 2026, 06:27 UTC. Fresh through 6 Jun 2026, 18:27 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
For McDonald's, the model base is intended to capture durable franchise and brand economics rather than quarter-specific traffic, FX, or commodity timing.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $26.9B | Live reported | $26.9B +1.1% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths promotional timing, FX, and international traffic swings rather than extrapolating any one quarter of consumer noise. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 46.1% | Live reported | 45.7% +61 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input keeps the base on durable franchise economics instead of over-reading temporary commodity or mix relief. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $7.2B | Live reported | $8.9B 33.1% margin Adjustment: FCF input adjusts for working-capital timing and keeps the franchise cash-conversion base conservative. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($39.7B) | Live reported | ($45.8B) Franchise cash generation supports leverage, but balance-sheet treatment stays conservative Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment reflects durable franchise cash generation but does not downplay the company's substantial debt load. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published report remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $280 versus a base-case fair value of $330, implying +17.6 upside.
Fair value $330 vs. current $280 (+17.6 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods remain directionally aligned, with a moderate range from $315 to $345.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 45.7%, with +61 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($45.8B), with franchise cash generation supports leverage, but balance-sheet treatment stays conservative.
Key drivers
Franchise mix and brand strength keep margin durability well above most restaurant peers.
Global scale and value positioning support resilience even when consumer spending gets uneven.
Reliable cash generation underpins the valuation floor despite a leveraged balance sheet.
Key risks
Traffic softness or a more promotional environment could pressure the current through-cycle revenue base.
The balance sheet remains more leveraged than a cleaner defensive consumer name.
If the quality premium rerates lower, the current upside case would narrow quickly.
What would change our view
A wider discount to fair value would make the franchise-quality story more compelling.
A more durable traffic recovery without margin erosion would improve conviction.
If traffic softness deepens while leverage remains elevated, the current Hold stance would weaken.
Near-term catalysts
Same-store sales, guest traffic, and international franchise commentary remain the clearest near-term signals.
Value-mix and promotional intensity matter more than a single quarterly revenue print in this setup.
Margin commentary on labor, commodities, and franchise mix will shape confidence in the durable base.
What we are watching
Whether value-led traffic holds up without requiring a margin-sacrificing promotional response.
How much recent operating stability is structural versus helped by commodity or FX timing.
Whether leverage remains comfortably supported if the global consumer backdrop weakens.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published report context visible. Current workspace valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Apr 10, 2026.
Report updated
Apr 10, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Apr 10, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Apr 10, 2026
Analyst note
Watching traffic resilience, franchise-margin durability, and whether the quality premium is outrunning the underlying cash-flow base.
What changed in the report
Apr 10, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: New Hold view on franchise quality with a still-contained spread to fair value
Apr 10, 2026
Kept balance-sheet treatment conservative
Impact: Avoids overstating upside from a leveraged but durable cash generator
Report timeline
Apr 10, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on durable franchise economics and a still-moderate spread to fair value.