AnalystScope equity researchCurrent company view

LULU

lululemon athletica inc.

Consumer Discretionary / Apparel, Footwear & Accessories / Vancouver, Canada

View printable snapshot

AnalystScope signal

Buy

Scheduled quote

$119

Base fair value

$357

Bear / base / bull

$271 / $357 / $406

Upside / downside

+199.9 upside

Confidence

Medium

Research updated Jun 13, 2026

Daily scheduled refresh as of Aug 1, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Aug 2, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.

Informational research only. Not personalized investment advice.

Model vs published view

Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.

Live current-price moves may be widening the gap versus the latest published view.

Investment summary

Current view and thesis

lululemon athletica inc. is added as a high-quality large-cap coverage candidate with premium athletic apparel brand with direct-to-consumer scale and high store productivity. The initial AnalystScope view weighs international growth, product expansion, and brand loyalty against brand expectations are still elevated despite growth normalization, keeping the rating restrained until the model has more live refresh history.

Fair value $357 vs. current $119 (+199.9 upside). Current base fair value is $357 versus $119, implying +199.9 upside.

Key drivers

International runway remains meaningful.

DTC and brand loyalty support pricing.

Net cash and high margins provide resilience.

Key risks

North America slowdown could reduce growth confidence.

Fashion misses or inventory issues can pressure margins.

Premium valuation remains sensitive to traffic softness.

What would change the view

A clearer evidence base around international growth, product expansion, and brand loyalty would improve confidence.

A deterioration in premium pricing and dtc mix support strong margins would reduce support for the current fair value.

A wider gap between price and normalized cash-flow support would make the rating harder to defend.

Valuation

Price, range, and method support

Base case $357 / +199.9 upside / medium confidence

Price vs fair value

+200.3%

Model-implied return

Scheduled quote

$119

Fair value

$357

Valuation method stack

Weighted fair value $357

Published method weights

DCF (Base)

$365 | 45%

NTM P/E Multiple

$352 | 35%

EV/EBITDA Cross-check

$345 | 20%

Case / method	Value	Weight / support
DCF (Base)	$365	45%
NTM P/E Multiple	$352	35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check	$345	20%
Bear case	$271	Supportive
Base case	$357	Supportive
Bull case	$406	Mixed

Fundamental analysis

Reported evidence and normalized model base

Normalized annual basis: FY2026

Download reported financials CSV Download normalized financials CSV

Normalized figures are AnalystScope's annual valuation model base.

Normalized metric	Latest value	Growth / margin context
Revenue	$11.6B	+9.4% YoY
Operating income	$2.7B	23.3% margin
Net income	$2.0B	EPS proxy $16.19
Free cash flow	$1.7B	14.7% margin
EBITDA	$3.1B	26.7% margin
Net cash / (debt)	$2.4B	+20.7% of revenue

Metric	Reported	AnalystScope normalized	Basis note
Revenue (TTM)	$11.1B	$11.6B	Model revenue smooths short-term demand, timing, and segment-mix volatility rather than treating the latest period as a straight-line run rate.
Operating Margin	19.9%	23.3%	Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects.
FCF (TTM)	$921.7M	$1.7B	FCF input normalizes working-capital and capital-spending timing so cash conversion is not over-read from one period.
Net Cash / (Debt)	Unavailable	$2.4B	Balance-sheet input uses a conservative net cash / debt posture without assuming all cash is excess or fully distributable.

Fundamental snapshot

FY2026

Normalized annual model base

Revenue

+9.4% YoY

$11.6B

Op. margin

+0.6% pts

23.3%

FCF margin

+1.4% pts

14.7%

Revenue + margin trend

Annual normalized model-base history.

Revenue

2024

2025

2026

Operating margin

2024

2025

2026

AnalystScope annual model-base statements in USD across FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026.

Income statement

Line item	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026
Revenue	$9.6B	$10.6B	$11.6B
Gross Profit	$5.6B	$6.2B	$6.8B
Operating Income	$2.1B	$2.4B	$2.7B
EBITDA	$2.4B	$2.8B	$3.1B
Net Income	$1.5B	$1.7B	$2.0B

Balance sheet

Line item	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026
Cash & Investments	$1.9B	$2.1B	$2.4B
Total Debt	$0.0	$0.0	$0.0
Net Cash / (Debt)	$1.9B	$2.1B	$2.4B
Total Assets	$8.5B	$9.4B	$10.3B
Total Liabilities	$3.5B	$3.6B	$3.7B
Shareholders' Equity	$5.0B	$5.8B	$6.6B

Cash flow

Line item	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026
Operating Cash Flow	$1.8B	$2.0B	$2.3B
Depreciation & Amortization	$300.0M	$400.0M	$400.0M
Capital Expenditures	($500.0M)	($600.0M)	($600.0M)
Free Cash Flow	$1.3B	$1.4B	$1.7B

Model assumptions

Base-case inputs and sensitivity

Published AnalystScope assumptions; private edits do not change this base case.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

7.0%

+/- 1.0% => +/-$9/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2026.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: International runway remains meaningful.

Terminal Growth

2.6%

+/- 0.5% => +/-$8/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.6%, it sits well below the 7.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For lululemon athletica inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.

WACC

8.6%

+/- 0.5% => -$13/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash supports brand investment and buybacks

Operating Margin (Year 5)

23.5%

+/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh

Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (23.3%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects.

Sensitivity drivers

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

7.0%

+/- 1.0% => +/-$9/sh

Terminal Growth

2.6%

+/- 0.5% => +/-$8/sh

WACC

8.6%

+/- 0.5% => -$13/sh

Operating Margin (Year 5)

23.5%

+/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh

Confidence

Medium

Method outputs are tightly grouped at +5.6% dispersion.

Why the model view could be wrong

North America slowdown could reduce growth confidence.

Fashion misses or inventory issues can pressure margins.

Premium valuation remains sensitive to traffic softness.

Private analysis

Test your own assumptions in Scenario Builder

Private scenarios remain separate from AnalystScope's published base case.

Open Scenario Builder

Private workspace

Scenario Builder

Private scenario sandbox

This is a private modelling layer, not the public AnalystScope base case or printable snapshot. It keeps the public base case as the anchor, applies bounded changes to the four core valuation inputs, and updates your scenario fair-value estimate immediately.

Saved scenarios currently stay local to this browser for LULU. Base-case rationale remains in the public assumptions section above. Your scenario output reprices the published valuation methods from projected operating anchors when those anchors are available, while keeping market-multiple and capital-structure assumptions anchored to the AnalystScope framework.

Editable assumptions

Adjust your scenario inputs within the displayed plausible range for this company. The workbench stays anchored to the public AnalystScope base case.

This is a bounded scenario tool, not a free-form spreadsheet. Values outside the displayed range snap back to the nearest allowed value when you leave the field.

Matches the published AnalystScope base case.

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

Public AnalystScope base case: 7.0% | +/- 1.0% => +/-$9/sh

Allowed range: 1.0% to 13.0%

Terminal Growth

Public AnalystScope base case: 2.6% | +/- 0.5% => +/-$8/sh

Allowed range: 1.1% to 4.1%

WACC

Public AnalystScope base case: 8.6% | +/- 0.5% => -$13/sh

Allowed range: 6.6% to 10.6%

Operating Margin (Year 5)

Public AnalystScope base case: 23.5% | +/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh

Allowed range: 15.5% to 31.5%

Saved private scenarios

Save up to 5 named scenarios for LULU. These are your scenarios: they never overwrite the public AnalystScope base case and remain clearly separate from public research.

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Notes stay local to this browser unless you sign in to the private workspace, and they never appear as published AnalystScope research.

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Published base case

Fair value

$357

Upside / Downside

+199.9 upside

Model signal

Buy

Published base-case output

Scenario output reprices the published DCF and multiple methods from projected year-5 revenue, margin, free cash flow, EBITDA, and EPS anchors. Market multiples and capital structure stay anchored to the published base framework.

Fair value

$357

$0/sh vs published base case

Upside / Downside

+199.9 upside

+0.0 pts vs published base case

Model signal

Buy

Unchanged versus the published base case.

Method movement inside the scenario

This breakdown shows what moved inside the published valuation framework when you edit the scenario. The published AnalystScope base case stays anchored, and any method without a clean projected anchor remains pinned to that framework.

Method rows below reflect the current edited scenario state, not just the saved scenario snapshots.

Influence tags are directional rather than exact attribution. They estimate which edited input is moving each method most by reverting one assumption at a time while the other edited inputs stay in place.

3 of 3 methods support model-native repricingModel-native bridge

Method	Published base	Edited scenario	Delta	How it moved / main drivers
DCF (Base) DCF-style \| 45% weight	$365	$365	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
NTM P/E Multiple P/E-style \| 35% weight	$352	$352	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
EV/EBITDA Cross-check EV-based multiple \| 20% weight	$345	$345	$0/sh	Base-aligned This method is supported by the model-native bridge and currently stays aligned with the published base case. Edited inputs are largely offsetting each other, so this row stays close to the published base case.
Weighted fair value Published framework result \| Published framework result	$357	$356	-$1/sh	Moved Combines the repriced method outputs using the published AnalystScope weights. No single edited assumption is dominating this move in a material way.

Published base case vs private scenarios

Compare the published AnalystScope base case against your saved private scenarios in one view. Saved scenarios remain local to this browser, and the table below reflects saved snapshots rather than any unsaved edits currently sitting in the editor.

Fair-value comparisons use the same workbench recalculation path as the editor above.

Published base case stays pinned as the anchor row.

Scenario	Revenue CAGR (5Y)	Terminal Growth	WACC	Op. Margin (Y5)	Fair Value	Upside / Downside	Model Signal	Delta vs Base	Action
AnalystScope base case Published Official AnalystScope anchor row.	7.0%	2.6%	8.6%	23.5%	$357	+199.9 upside	Buy	Published anchor

Supporting research

Quality, normalization, and monitoring evidence

Annual model base: FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026

Thesis scorecard

Growth

Moderate

international growth, product expansion, and brand loyalty

Profitability

Strong

premium pricing and DTC mix support strong margins

Balance sheet

Moderate

net cash keeps financial risk low

Valuation

Moderate

brand expectations are still elevated despite growth normalization

Execution / Resilience

Moderate

fashion relevance, inventory quality, and international execution are the main risks

Current source status

Quote: Daily scheduled refresh as of Aug 1, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC. Fresh through Aug 2, 2026, 6:05 AM UTC.

Reported fundamentals: Fundamentals refreshed 1 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC. Fresh through 2 Aug 2026, 04:00 UTC.

Latest filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A filed Jul 20, 2026. Filing refreshed Aug 1, 2026, 4:26 PM UTC. Fresh through Aug 2, 2026, 4:26 AM UTC.

Annual model-base income-statement, cash-flow, and balance-sheet metrics, plus cross-statement quality relationships with compact prior-FY direction cues, derived from the curated statement backbone.

Basis: FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026. Live reported fundamentals remain available in the reconciliation section.

Operating and cash-flow trends

Model-base statements

Revenue growth (1Y)

+9.4%

Gross margin

58.6%

Operating margin

23.3%

Operating margin change vs prior FY

+0.6 pts

EBITDA margin

26.7%

EBITDA margin change vs prior FY

+0.3 pts

Operating income growth (1Y)

+12.5%

Net margin

17.2%

FCF margin

14.7%

FCF margin change vs prior FY

+1.4 pts

FCF growth (1Y)

+21.4%

Balance sheet quality

Model-base statements

Cash & investments

$2.4B

Total debt

$0.0

Net cash / (debt)

Net cash $2.4B

Net cash / (debt) as % of revenue

Net cash 20.7% of revenue

Liabilities / assets

Stable

vs FY2025 (-2.4 pts)

35.9%

Cross-statement quality

Model-base statements

Gross-to-operating spread

35.3 pts

Operating cash flow / net income

Stable

vs FY2025 (-0.0x)

1.1x

Operating cash flow / EBITDA

Stable

vs FY2025 (+0.0x)

0.7x

Free cash flow / net income

Stable

vs FY2025 (+0.0x)

0.8x

CapEx as % of revenue

Stable

vs FY2025 (-0.5 pts)

5.2%

CapEx as % of operating cash flow

Improving

vs FY2025 (-3.9 pts)

26.1%

CapEx / D&A

Stable

vs FY2025 (+0.0x)

1.5x

Cash & investments / total debt

Stable

vs FY2025 (still debt-free)

Debt-free

Shareholders' equity as % of revenue

56.9%

Asset turnover

Stable

vs FY2025 (-0.0x)

1.1x

Compact model-base diagnostics for analyst triage, highlighting where the durable valuation base is diverging most clearly from the latest reported picture.

Adjustment focus

Large analyst adjustment

Cash flow | FCF (TTM) | +$778.3M / +84%

Revenue momentum

Stable

+9.4% latest 1Y growth

vs +10.4% prior 1Y

Operating margin trend

Stable

23.3% latest margin

+63 bps vs prior FY

FCF margin trend

Improving

14.7% latest FCF margin

+145 bps vs prior FY

Balance-sheet posture

Stable

Net cash 20.7% of revenue

vs Net cash 19.8% of revenue prior FY

How to read this

Reported = the latest company-reported figure. Model base = AnalystScope's comparable operating base used for valuation and thesis work. It may include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported numbers do not look durable.

This is an analyst model base, not a claim of perfect adjusted truth. Larger gaps can reflect deliberate cyclical or base-case adjustments, not just light accounting cleanup.

Why the model base differs

This initial coverage setup keeps valuation tied to durable normalized fundamentals and avoids letting a single recent print dominate the public view.

Rows are sorted by largest comparable adjustment first.

Metric	Model base	Live reported	Variance vs reported	Adjustment size	Why lower / higher?
FCF (TTM)	$1.7B FY2026 model base	$921.7M Live reported TTM	+$778.3M / +84%	Large analyst adjustment	Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest cash-flow drag is fully durable. It normalizes working-capital and capital-spending timing so cash conversion is not over-read from one period.
Revenue (TTM)	$11.6B FY2026 model base	$11.1B Live reported TTM	+$500.0M / +5%	Close to reported	Model base is higher than live reported because the thesis does not assume the latest reported softness is the durable revenue run-rate. It smooths short-term demand, timing, and segment-mix volatility rather than treating the latest period as a straight-line run rate.
Operating Margin	23.3% FY2026 model base	19.9% Live reported margin	+3.4 pts	Moderate adjustment	Model base is higher than live reported because the model does not assume the latest reported margin pressure is the durable earnings base. It uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects.
Net Cash / (Debt)	$2.4B FY2026 model base	Unavailable Live reported balance sheet	Unavailable	Unavailable	AnalystScope keeps a separate model base when the latest reported figure is unavailable or not directly comparable. It balance-sheet input uses a conservative net cash / debt posture without assuming all cash is excess or fully distributable.

Near-term catalysts

Next quarterly update and management commentary on demand quality.

Reported margin, cash-flow conversion, and balance-sheet movement versus the normalized model base.

Daily scheduled quote refreshes that tighten the current price-versus-fair-value read.

What we are watching

Comparable sales by region.

Inventory growth versus sales growth.

Gross margin and markdown commentary.

Date	Event	Published rating	Note
Jun 13, 2026	New	Hold	Started coverage with a Hold view on brand quality versus growth normalization risk.