lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) Published Snapshot
lululemon athletica inc. is added as a high-quality large-cap coverage candidate with premium athletic apparel brand with direct-to-consumer scale and high store productivity. The initial AnalystScope view weighs international growth, product expansion, and brand loyalty against brand expectations are still elevated despite growth normalization, keeping the rating restrained until the model has more live refresh history.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Buy signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $119 versus $357 fair value, implying +200.2 upside.
Price vs fair value
+200.6%
Model-implied return
Stale scheduled quote
$119
Fair value
$357
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $357
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$365 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$352 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$345 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2026
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+9.4% YoY
$11.6B
Op. margin
+0.6% pts
23.3%
FCF margin
+1.4% pts
14.7%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$365
NTM P/E Multiple
$352
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$345
Current workspace signal
Buy
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$119
Fair value
$357
+200.2 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 15, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 16, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC.
Filing reference
4 filed Jun 16, 2026 | Reporting period Jun 15, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, and free cash flow. Reporting period end 2026-02-01.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 03:56 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 15:56 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
Moderateinternational growth, product expansion, and brand loyalty
Profitability
Strongpremium pricing and DTC mix support strong margins
Balance sheet
Moderatenet cash keeps financial risk low
Valuation
Moderatebrand expectations are still elevated despite growth normalization
Execution / Resilience
Moderatefashion relevance, inventory quality, and international execution are the main risks
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$406
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$357
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile support the base case.
Bear case
$271
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support remain supportive in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
7.0%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2026.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: International runway remains meaningful.
Terminal Growth
2.6%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.6%, it sits well below the 7.0% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For lululemon athletica inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.6%
+/- 0.5% => -$13/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Net cash supports brand investment and buybacks
Operating Margin (Year 5)
23.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$8/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (23.3%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, and free cash flow. Reporting period end 2026-02-01.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 03:56 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 15:56 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
This initial coverage setup keeps valuation tied to durable normalized fundamentals and avoids letting a single recent print dominate the public view.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $11.1B | Live reported | $11.6B +9.4% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths short-term demand, timing, and segment-mix volatility rather than treating the latest period as a straight-line run rate. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 19.9% | Live reported | 23.3% +63 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $921.7M | Live reported | $1.7B 14.7% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes working-capital and capital-spending timing so cash conversion is not over-read from one period. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | Unavailable | Unavailable | $2.4B Net cash supports brand investment and buybacks Adjustment: Balance-sheet input uses a conservative net cash / debt posture without assuming all cash is excess or fully distributable. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $119 versus a base-case fair value of $357, implying +200.2 upside.
Fair value $357 vs. current $119 (+200.2 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $345 to $365.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 23.3%, with +63 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is $2.4B, with net cash supports brand investment and buybacks.
Key drivers
International runway remains meaningful.
DTC and brand loyalty support pricing.
Net cash and high margins provide resilience.
Key risks
North America slowdown could reduce growth confidence.
Fashion misses or inventory issues can pressure margins.
Premium valuation remains sensitive to traffic softness.
What would change our view
A clearer evidence base around international growth, product expansion, and brand loyalty would improve confidence.
A deterioration in premium pricing and dtc mix support strong margins would reduce support for the current fair value.
A wider gap between price and normalized cash-flow support would make the rating harder to defend.
Near-term catalysts
Next quarterly update and management commentary on demand quality.
Reported margin, cash-flow conversion, and balance-sheet movement versus the normalized model base.
Daily scheduled quote refreshes that tighten the current price-versus-fair-value read.
What we are watching
Comparable sales by region.
Inventory growth versus sales growth.
Gross margin and markdown commentary.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
New coverage entry focused on international growth, product expansion, and brand loyalty and brand expectations are still elevated despite growth normalization.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on brand quality versus growth normalization risk.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Adds a premium apparel growth name while avoiding a story-stock valuation posture.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on brand quality versus growth normalization risk.