Target Corporation (TGT) Published Snapshot
Target Corporation is added as a high-quality large-cap coverage candidate with large-format retail with discretionary exposure, owned brands, and omnichannel fulfillment. The initial AnalystScope view weighs traffic stabilization, owned-brand mix, and margin recovery against consumer discretion and traffic uncertainty keep the initial view restrained, keeping the rating restrained until the model has more live refresh history.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Sell signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $135 versus $105 fair value, implying -22.2 downside.
Price vs fair value
-22.4%
Model-implied return
Stale scheduled quote
$135
Fair value
$105
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $105
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$108 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$104 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$101 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2026
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+1.3% YoY
$108.0B
Op. margin
+0.2% pts
6.1%
FCF margin
+0.4% pts
3.4%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$108
NTM P/E Multiple
$104
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$101
Current workspace signal
Sell
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$135
Fair value
$105
-22.2 downside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 15, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 16, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC.
Filing reference
144 filed Jun 16, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 3:56 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-01-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Model vs published view
Current model signal differs from the latest published analyst rating.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
Moderatetraffic stabilization, owned-brand mix, and margin recovery
Profitability
Stronggross margin repair and inventory discipline can support operating leverage
Balance sheet
Moderatedebt is manageable for a large retailer but limits aggressive upside framing
Valuation
Moderateconsumer discretion and traffic uncertainty keep the initial view restrained
Execution / Resilience
Moderatecategory mix, shrink, and discretionary demand remain key risks
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$122
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$105
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile constrain the base case.
Bear case
$78
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are limited in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
2.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2026.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Owned brands and merchandising can support gross margin.
Terminal Growth
2.0%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$3/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.0%, it sits well below the 2.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Target Corporation, that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.1%
+/- 0.5% => -$5/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Leverage is manageable but consumer demand recovery matters
Operating Margin (Year 5)
6.5%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$6/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (6.1%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2026-01-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:00 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
This initial coverage setup keeps valuation tied to durable normalized fundamentals and avoids letting a single recent print dominate the public view.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $104.8B | Live reported | $108.0B +1.3% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths short-term demand, timing, and segment-mix volatility rather than treating the latest period as a straight-line run rate. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 4.9% | Live reported | 6.1% +20 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input uses a durable operating base and tempers one-off restructuring, mix, and cycle effects. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $2.8B | Live reported | $3.7B 3.4% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes working-capital and capital-spending timing so cash conversion is not over-read from one period. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($12.3B) | Live reported | ($13.8B) Leverage is manageable but consumer demand recovery matters Adjustment: Balance-sheet input uses a conservative net cash / debt posture without assuming all cash is excess or fully distributable. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $135 versus a base-case fair value of $105, implying -22.2 downside.
Fair value $105 vs. current $135 (-22.2 downside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $101 to $108.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 6.1%, with +20 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($13.8B), with leverage is manageable but consumer demand recovery matters.
Key drivers
Owned brands and merchandising can support gross margin.
Omnichannel scale remains strategically relevant.
Inventory discipline can improve cash flow.
Key risks
Discretionary softness could pressure traffic and mix.
Shrink or markdowns can offset margin recovery.
Competition from Walmart, Amazon, and off-price retailers remains intense.
What would change our view
A clearer evidence base around traffic stabilization, owned-brand mix, and margin recovery would improve confidence.
A deterioration in gross margin repair and inventory discipline can support operating leverage would reduce support for the current fair value.
A wider gap between price and normalized cash-flow support would make the rating harder to defend.
Near-term catalysts
Next quarterly update and management commentary on demand quality.
Reported margin, cash-flow conversion, and balance-sheet movement versus the normalized model base.
Daily scheduled quote refreshes that tighten the current price-versus-fair-value read.
What we are watching
Comparable sales and traffic.
Gross margin and shrink commentary.
Inventory and free-cash-flow conversion.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
New coverage entry focused on traffic stabilization, owned-brand mix, and margin recovery and consumer discretion and traffic uncertainty keep the initial view restrained.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on recovery potential versus consumer and margin uncertainty.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Adds a clean future TGT versus WMT comparison.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on recovery potential versus consumer and margin uncertainty.