Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) Published Snapshot
Thermo Fisher adds a clean health-care tools name with strong disclosure and model fit. The first view is constructive but still below a high-conviction Buy threshold.
This page preserves a point-in-time printable snapshot at the report date shown below. It is not the live research workspace. For the current fair value, model signal, filing status, refreshed model output, and private scenario sandbox, return to the company research view.
Current research view reference
Kept here as reference beside the printable snapshot: the current research view now shows a Hold signal with medium confidence as shares are currently being evaluated against an older daily scheduled quote of $469 versus $503 fair value, implying +7.3 upside.
Price vs fair value
+7.2%
Model-implied return
Stale scheduled quote
$469
Fair value
$503
Valuation method stack
Weighted fair value $503
Published method weights
DCF (Base)
$512 | 45%
NTM P/E Multiple
$500 | 35%
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$490 | 20%
Fundamental snapshot
FY2025
Normalized annual model base
Revenue
+2.1% YoY
$43.8B
Op. margin
+0.9% pts
21.9%
FCF margin
+0.6% pts
15.3%
Published valuation range
Bear / base / bull context
Uses report scenario anchors
DCF (Base)
$512
NTM P/E Multiple
$500
EV/EBITDA Cross-check
$490
Current workspace signal
Hold
Confidence
Medium
Stale scheduled quote
$469
Fair value
$503
+7.3 upside
Reference freshness
Price basis
Stale scheduled quote
Latest daily scheduled quote is past the freshness window. Daily scheduled refresh as of Jun 15, 2026, 7:36 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 16, 2026, 7:36 AM UTC.
Filing reference
144 filed May 29, 2026
Filing refreshed Jun 17, 2026, 4:07 AM UTC. Fresh through Jun 17, 2026, 4:07 PM UTC.
Fundamentals reference
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:07 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:07 UTC.
Thesis scorecard
Growth
ModerateLong-run tools demand is attractive, while near-term biopharma demand remains uneven.
Profitability
StrongMargins and cash conversion are solid for the current model.
Balance sheet
ModerateDebt is manageable but still relevant.
Valuation
ModerateThe fair-value spread is positive but not wide enough for a stronger initial view.
Execution / Resilience
StrongScale, channel breadth, and recurring exposure support resilience.
Bull / Base / Bear scenarios
Bull case
$565
Normalized support: Growth, margin, and cash-flow trends are mixed versus the upside case.
Base case
$503
Normalized support: Current margin, cash-generation, and balance-sheet profile are mixed.
Bear case
$410
Downside protection: Cash generation and balance-sheet support are mixed in the bear case.
Base-case assumptions
These are the published base-case assumptions behind the note. They are reasoned valuation inputs at the report date, not reported facts.
Revenue CAGR (5Y)
4.5%
+/- 1.0% => +/-$11/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case growth assumption, not a guarantee. It sits below the latest FY model-base revenue pace (2025.0%), so the model does not extend current strength too far into the outer years. Current company context: Biopharma funding and instrument demand drive near-term revenue momentum.
Terminal Growth
2.5%
+/- 0.5% => +/-$9/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's mature long-run growth assumption, not a perpetual hypergrowth claim. At 2.5%, it sits well below the 4.5% five-year revenue CAGR, so the model steps down from the explicit forecast period to a steadier long-run pace. For Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., that means a durable franchise can keep compounding after year five without assuming today's faster growth profile lasts indefinitely.
WACC
8.2%
+/- 0.5% => -$15/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case cost-of-capital judgment, not a precise CAPM output. It reflects the current rates backdrop, equity risk premium, and the company's balance-sheet posture. Debt is manageable but still relevant after acquisition-led growth
Operating Margin (Year 5)
23.0%
+/- 100 bps => +/-$10/sh
Why this level: This is AnalystScope's base-case margin view, not a promise of straight-line expansion. It keeps year-five margins close to today's model-base operating margin (21.9%), which implies the current margin structure is broadly durable. Margin input anchors to life-sciences-tools quality while allowing for volume and mix pressure.
How to read the assumptions and sensitivities
These are base-case assumptions used to estimate fair value. They are reasonable model inputs, not reported facts.
Each sensitivity line shows the estimated fair-value-per-share change from a small move in that one input while the other inputs stay fixed.
bps means basis points. 100 bps equals 1.00 percentage point.
WACC sensitivity moves in the opposite direction because a higher discount rate lowers present value, while a lower discount rate raises it.
Model base vs reported fundamentals
Side-by-side view of the latest live reported fundamentals versus the current AnalystScope model base used in public valuation and thesis work.
Reported numbers show the latest company print. Model base is the comparable operating base AnalystScope uses for valuation work, which can include standardization, conservative balance-sheet treatment, working-capital cleanup, and through-cycle adjustments when current reported figures do not look durable.
Reported fundamentals source
SEC XBRL companyfacts API
Live SEC companyfacts currently cover revenue, operating margin, free cash flow, and net cash / net debt. Reporting period end 2025-12-31.
Fundamentals refreshed 17 Jun 2026, 04:07 UTC. Fresh through 17 Jun 2026, 16:07 UTC.
Model-base impact on the thesis
Thermo Fisher is modeled as a high-quality life-sciences compounder with durable cash generation, but near-term demand softness and leverage keep the rating measured.
| Metric | Live reported | Status | Model base | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $44.6B | Live reported | $43.8B +2.1% YoY Adjustment: Model revenue smooths biopharma funding cycles, instrument timing, and acquisition integration effects. | Model base |
| Operating Margin | 17.4% | Live reported | 21.9% +94 bps YoY Adjustment: Margin input anchors to life-sciences-tools quality while allowing for volume and mix pressure. | Model base |
| FCF (TTM) | $6.3B | Live reported | $6.7B 15.3% margin Adjustment: FCF input normalizes working-capital and capex timing through life-sciences demand cycles. | Model base |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | ($15.5B) | Live reported | ($30.1B) Debt is manageable but still relevant after acquisition-led growth Adjustment: Balance-sheet treatment keeps acquisition-related leverage visible in downside support. | Model base |
Published investment view
The published snapshot remains anchored to a Hold rating, with the latest note event recorded as New. The current workspace now evaluates the stock against $469 versus a base-case fair value of $503, implying +7.3 upside.
Fair value $503 vs. current $469 (+7.3 upside).
Confidence framing
Method agreement / dispersion
Valuation methods are tightly grouped, with implied values ranging from $490 to $512.
Margin strength
Operating margin is 21.9%, with +94 bps vs prior FY.
Balance sheet position
Balance sheet positioning is ($30.1B), with debt is manageable but still relevant after acquisition-led growth.
Key drivers
Biopharma funding and instrument demand drive near-term revenue momentum.
Recurring consumables and services support cash-flow quality.
Integration discipline and operating leverage matter for margin recovery.
Key risks
Biopharma funding weakness could keep growth below the base case.
Acquisition-related leverage reduces downside flexibility.
Instrument demand can remain cyclical if customer budgets tighten.
What would change our view
Clearer demand recovery across biopharma customers would improve conviction.
Debt reduction and stronger free cash flow would strengthen downside support.
Further volume softness would keep the fair-value range restrained.
Near-term catalysts
Biopharma demand commentary and order trends remain key.
Margin bridge and productivity updates can shift fair-value confidence.
Free-cash-flow conversion is an important balance-sheet monitor.
What we are watching
Whether customer demand is stabilizing across instruments and consumables.
How quickly margin recovery follows volume recovery.
Whether leverage trends lower without constraining investment.
Report archive context
Archive metadata below keeps the published snapshot context visible. Current research-view valuation and quote context stay secondary on this page.
How to read note event vs rating
Note event tells you what changed in the latest published note. Published rating shows the stance after that event.
Both were published Jun 13, 2026.
Report updated
Jun 13, 2026
Coverage status
Active coverage
Latest note event
New
Published Jun 13, 2026
Current published rating
Hold
Published Jun 13, 2026
Analyst note
Watching biopharma demand, order quality, margin recovery, and debt-adjusted cash generation.
What changed in the report
Jun 13, 2026
Added to AnalystScope coverage
Impact: Started coverage with a Hold view on high-quality life-sciences cash generation versus uneven near-term demand.
Jun 13, 2026
Initialized normalized annual model base
Impact: Adds a clean health-care tools compounder without requiring a special accounting model.
Report timeline
Jun 13, 2026
Started coverage with a Hold view on high-quality life-sciences cash generation versus uneven near-term demand.